We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Kentucky at Florida (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -8.5

It has been very difficult to find value on Florida the entire season. They have not been less than a 13 point favorite in SEC home games the entire season. But we finally find it as they are instilled here at just -8.5.  Florida has dropped two straight and three of their last four. They have failed to cover six straight games against impossible lines. What the odds-makers are forgetting is Kentucky has not been blistering the nets on the road either. They have dropped thre straight and four of five games. If Florida is going to play the way they are capable nothing like seeing that "K' on the front of the opponents jersey will rev the engines. We look for Florida to make a statement today, blowing-out Kentucky and head into the SEC tournament on a high.

Both of these teams are 20-9 but let's look at recent performance. Clemson started the season 17-0 but when the competition heated up, they folded. They have won just three of their last twelve games. They have covered the spread just once in their last eight games! A look a play vs. common opponents of these two teams further tells us what we know - these teams aren't close. Versus commons foes, Va Tech has gone 12-5 SU and 10-7 ATS this year while Clemson has 8-9 SU and 7-9 ATS. Virginia Tech is 10-5 vs. conference opponents and 13-1 at home. Tech was humiliated by in-state rival Virginia on Thursday and they'll take out their anger on Clemson today.

The wheels have come off for this Alabama team. They started 13-1, worked their way into the top 10, and have since been 7-8. Part of the struggles are due to Ron Steele's knees. He has missed games and will miss again today. Mississippi State will not be tourney bound because of their inability to win on the road where they are 3-9. Home is a completely different story, where they have covered 20 of their last 28 and have a 12-1 ATS record vs. teams with a .400 or less road winning percentage. They have also been a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less.

Boston College has lost three out of four but those were vs. Duke, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. This line is a bit inflated because of that. Georgia Tech is coming off a big emotional win vs. North Carolina and may come out a bit flat here. BC steps it up against good teams, especially late in the season. These teams played two games last year, both decided by 2 points, and another close one is in store today. Take the points.

New Orleans has opening things up. In their last five games they have scored 77 ppg while allowing 79.6 per game. Arkansas State is off a low-scoring game but before that they put up 70+ in five of seven games. New Orleans is dictating the tempo of their games lately. They lost to Arkansas State earlier this year and they are 11-2 OVER the past three seasons revenging a same-season loss. They are also 8-2 OVER this season vs. poor-pressure opponents like Arkansas State. The points should fly here.