Free Ncaa Picks - March 03, 2009

We're off a 3-1 night on Sunday and over the past two months we're 82-65 on the college hardwood. Tonight we have three picks...

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Illinois Chicago at Youngstown State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Youngstown State +2.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The higher seed, playing at home, is getting points here in the opening round of hte Horizon League Tournament. It doesn't make sense and I'm jumping on the home dog. Illinois-Chicago posted a 7-11 mark in conference play, hardly the fodder for a road favorite. And, the home dog has already won both matchups this season! The Penguins are 6-2 vs. UIC here at home including 3-0 the past three seasons. The Flames are just 2-8 ATS this season revenging a loss. And forward Jeremy Buttell is questionable for this game as he missed last game with a knee injury. Youngstown is 22-12 ATS vs. conference opponents the past two years. Wrong team favored and I'll back the dog here.

The Bearcats are the ones likely going to the Big Dance while S. Florida will be sitting at home. This is South Florida's final home game and I expect them to play very hard as a result. It's their last game of the season in front of a warm crowd and it is the closest thing they have to a tourney game. How sweet would it be for them to knock off a team that could be headed to the Tourney? If they can hand Cincy a loss, they likely keep them out of the tournament and misery enjoys company. They know that and I expect a great game from them. Cincinnati has lost three of their last four and they are just 4-7 on the road this season. While 2-13 on the road, the Bulls are a respectable 6-7 at home. They play stellar defense here, allowing just 59.8 ppg. I like the live home dog with motivation.

This is the final home game for Montanta State and they face a team that has already locked up the Big Sky title. Montana State is just 5-11 on the road but they are tough at home and sit at 8-4. They have the offense to keep up with Weber in this one but they are off a couple of horrible performances offensively. The shot 34% vs. Portland State and 31% vs. N. Colorado. While that can scare many, I like it. Both of those games were on the road where this team hasn't done well all season. It should motivate the Bobcats tonight as they don't want to end their season with a third straight stinker. And, it could lull Weber State into a state of over-confidence. Montana State is 8-2 ATS this season after a game in which they lost ATS. I like them with the points here tonight.

Results: 1-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our 2008 NCAA basketball season preview here.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball betting here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 college basketball season prior picks here.
• View our NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• View NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Don't forget to read our blog NCAA basketball here.
• Don't forget to visit our free NCAA basketball predictions.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads.
• View our ncaa march madness brackets here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball ATS standings.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness picks.
• View our college basketball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2009
The regular season finale for both of these teams features the Gaels favored by 7.5 points. Are they worthy of that? Given their 7-10 mark in conference play, and 3-5 ATS record at home, I don't t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2009
Notre Dame has certainly displayed the firepower to put up a lot of points, but the Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country, and that has been personified at home. The Huskies have played ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2009
Brown opened the season with promise as they dropped a two-point decision on the road at 21-8 Rhode Island, and it has been a battle ever since. They currently sit at 1-9 in the Ivy League. That may s...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2009
This is a most difficult spot for Pepperdine as they will face a very good St. Mary's team that is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. The Waves just have no talent and have lost their last ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-25-2009
Arkansas is another one of those young teams that has talent, but it is so difficult for them to learn how to win on the road where they have managed just one win all season. That came very early and ...