Final Four Picks - March 02, 2010

We hit with our lone pick last night as Georgia Southern took down the number. Today we are charging the CBB floor with six picks including a trio of 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	177-158 last 335 picks	53%	+$2010
NHL	255-177 last 432 picks	59%	+$15920
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$41890

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: V M I at Coastal Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on V M I +22 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

When these teams first met this season in February, Coastal Carolina cruised to a 30 point home win. There's a very good chance that they will take VMI a bit lightly here. After all, VMI is just 2-12 on the road this season, allowing over 100 points per game. The problem here is that this spread is just too big for a conference tournament. Huge underdogs in conference tournament games have been an excellent bet. This is a contrarian play based on this big line.

Jacksonville State finished the season wondering where their offense went. Playing against a tough and physical Morehead State team isn't going to help them find it. The Gamecocks finished the season scoring just 61 points per game in their last 6. Morehead St. held six conference opponents to the 50s or less, and did a great job on a Murray State team that had won 17 in a row, holding the explosive Racers to 65. The Gamecocks have now played seven straight to the UNDER after an ATS loss, while Morehead has played four straight UNDERs vs. bad teams, winning less than 40% of their games. I'll go with the UNDER here.

Tennessee State has done a good job of scoring lately, but their last three against the top teams in the conference show them scoring an average of 54.3 points per game. They may have trouble achieving that here because Murray State isn't going to be taking a breath playing this one - they are going to play like an NCAA bid is on the line because it is. Tennessee State’s inability to score against the better teams in the league shows up in the totals results as they have played five straight UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600. I like this one to stay UNDER the total.

This is a big change for Southern Mississippi as they were a double-digit dog in their last game and are now a double-digit favorite here. Teams tend to letdown after playing as a big dog, with an easy game to follow. This might be a tough number to crack because the Southern Miss offense just doesn't produce much as they havent hit 70 yet in any conference game this season and has been in the 50s or less in nine of them. The Green Wave has lost six in a row, but they are always given too many points on the road, failing to cover just one of their last eight road games. After a blowout loss of 20+, they have responded by going 8-2 ATS. I'll go with Tulane in this one.

This is a matchup of two relatively even teams, and accordingly they split the two regular season games. They scored 131 and 126 points respectively in those games, but I really feel this one will be played with a lot more focus and intensity on the defensive end, with what is at stake here. There has not been an adjustment in the total. Eastern Kentucky has ramped-up the defense after a 10+ point home loss and have followed with a 7-2 mark to the UNDER in their last nine in that situation. Eastern Illinois has been an UNDER team for a longtime now, playing 27-10-1 to the UNDER in their last 38, and with the energy ramped-up here, I like this one to stay UNDER the total.

Austin Peay has some offensive numbers that are a bit skewed as they have remarkably played five games this season that have gone to overtime. That overtime point total stands at 107, so it puts 4 points per game onto their season averages, which is large. Amazingly, Tennessee Tech has also played five overtime games this season, which has added 154 points to their season scoring totals, or almost 6 per game. That means there are 10 points floating around these teams statistically, that don't belong. Tennessee Tech is 5-1 to the UNDER as a dog from 7-12.5 despite of the OTs. I think this one is artificially high, and will back the UNDER.

Results: 4-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Read our ncaa march madness brackets here.
• Don't forget to visit our betting college basketball.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball odds and lines.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball picks blog.
• View our updated college basketball betting.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Hop over to our march madness picks here.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NCAA basketball prior pick results here.
• View our updated 2009 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-March-01-2010
There is not much of a gap between these two Southern Conference bottom dwellers that come into tonight's game with a combined 15-43 record on the season. NC Greensboro has found the win column ju...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2010
The Wildcats are just 4-6 straight-up on the road, but they cover the number, having gone 8-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Penn State is just 3-9 ATS at home and they are really struggling to score sin...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2010
The UAB Blazers have positioned themselves at 22-5 to get an at-large bid even if they don't win their conference tournament. They are not the type of team however to take down big numbers and thi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2010
Put these two teams in a moneyline parlay. In the Ivy, Cornell hosts Princeton. Cornell has only lost one game here all season and that was way back in the third game of the season vs. Seton Hall. Sin...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-25-2010
The Mountaineers are a team that can score, but they defend very well, so playing often to higher totals than what would be reasonable. That has led to five of their last six failing to reach the tota...