Free College Basketball Predictions - March 01, 2008

We had a great night, coming within a half-point of the 4-0 sweep, but our 3-1 finish was still good for +4.3 units. Many may have had a 4-0 night, as the closing line on Columbia was -6.5.

Today we have seven picks including two 4-unit plays and a 5-unit play. Over the last nine weeks we are 57-30 on our top-rated 4 and 5-unit plays for 66% winning!

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Alabama at Mississippi (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Mississippi -5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

After a 13-0 start the Rebels have fallen hard and this is a must win game if they have any NCAA tourney aspirations. They still have an RPI hovering in the mid 40s and they have to close with some wins. ‘Bama has been equally as bad after a 10-3 start. They have managed just a 5-10 mark since. The Tide has been a road horror show, dropping each of their last seven and covering none when a dog of seven points or less. The Tide is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country as their 60% puts them at No. 331. That is a sure way to lose points, games, and covers on the road. They have shot even worse on the road in their seven losses at 57.8%. Look for Ole Miss to come away with a double-digit win here.

Wilmington is balanced, featuring four players averaging double-figures, led by TJ Carter at 16.1 ppg. They beat ODU on the road this year and are now getting a point at home. Sure, ODU is seeking revenge, but we don't think they'll get it. The Seahawks are 11-3 at home while ODU is 5-9 on the road! The Monarchs average a paltry 63.9 ppg away from home. They are favored thanks to some good recent play as they have won six straight including a 70-58 beat down of Northeastern last game. But, ODU is 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU this season off a double-digit win over a conference rival. THey are 2-9 ATS oveall after an ATS cover.

Vanderbilt comes in off their upset win over Tennessee. They find themselves in the dog role again. This team is 7-3 UNDER this season on the road and their defense is playing great right now, allowing just 63.6 ppg over their last five games. Arkansas is 7-3 UNDER at home, allowing just 60.9 ppg. The last six times the Commodores have faced a team at .600+, all six games went UNDER. They are also 8-0 UNDER in their last eight as an underdog. Arkansas is 10-14 UNDER in their last 14 home games. This total is too high and we'll back the UNDER.

We have two teams that have played even on the season. Missouri State is at 15-15, while Indiana State is 14-14. There is a huge difference based on setting. Missouri State has been absolutely dreadful on the road at 1-11, while Indiana State has just one blemish at home to conference-leader Drake and stand at 12-1. The Sycamores are 7-0 ATS in the conference, excluding their game with league-power Drake, with a convincing winning margin in those seven games of 11.7 ppg. They also have a bad taste to remove from the 29-point beating they were given by Missouri State here last year. The Bears haven't even come close on the road in MVC play. They are 0-8 with an average margin of losing of 13.3 ppg. They have come no closer than eight points. This line is way off.

Both of these teams play great defense with Ohio averaging 62.5 ppg allowed and Miami Ohio giving up just 61.6. But, let's look at this situation here. Over their last five games, Miami Ohio's defense has tanked, allowing 70.4 ppg. Those five games averaged 141 ppg! With this total posted below 120, there's trememdous value right there. Games featuring a home team that scores under 65 ppg, after allowing 85+ last game, go OVER 67% of the time (58-28 over the past decade). Miami Ohio is 9-2 OVER the past two seasons when facing slow down teams that average 53 or fewer shots per game. Under Charlie Coles, Miami is 23-13 OVER to a totals under 120. We'll take this one to go OVER.

South Alabama has positioned themselves to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament even if they don't win the conference tourney. They are 24-5 with an RPI hovering around 30. A bad performance here could change that and they know it. Florida International has struggled in a big way against the best teams they have played at home. They have been a home dog against the top four teams on their home schedule: Western Kentucky, Miami –Fla, George Mason, and South Florida, losing all four games ATS. The Golden Panthers have been out-shot 49% to 38%, as well as 42% to 28% from three-point range in these games. This is a team that has struggled to hang onto the ball all season committing an alarming 500 turnovers to just 337 assists. They have averaged 21 turnovers a game vs. the top eight teams on their schedule. The Jags have done very well on the road as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12. As expected, the Golden Panthers struggle against the very good teams. They enter with just a 3-9 ATS mark against teams that are .600+ on the road. This game should be a comfortable double-digit win here.

S. Florida has lost three straight, but all three have come by a total of 6 points.They have covered the spread in three of their last four games. That's in stark contrast to Rutgers who has dropped eight straight games, winning just one game ATS over that span. The Scarley Knights are averaging just 59.6 ppg in conference play while allowing 72.4. Make no mistake who the better team is here today. Sure, Rutgers is at home, but it won't be enough to overcome the talent deficit. Rutgers was pounded 79-61 by UConn on Tuesday and they are just 2-11 ATS the past two seasons off a home loss including 0-8 if the loss was by double-digits. This season they are 1-7 ATS after two straight games in which they scored 65 or fewer points. The better team wins this one.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View college basketball sportsbook here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball betting approach.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness picks.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 season NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Read our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View our 2007 NCAA basketball prior pick results here.
• View march madness bracket here.
• View college basketball against-the-spread records here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball picks blog.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball pick.
• Check out NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball odds and lines.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-29-2008
The Big Red have a three-game lead atop the Ivy League standings, so why get up for this game against lowly Dartmouth? They have won 12 straight and are perfect in conference games. They are coming of...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2008
Notre Dame has been unbeatable at home, but the road has been a different story especially against the top of the conference. They were humiliated at Georgetown by 19 points and at Marquette by 26. As...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2008
Florida is obviously used to being in the Big Dance of late but their fate this season is still to be determined. The scored a big win over South Carolina last Wednesday. They need to keep winning to ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2008
The Huskies had a 10-game winning streak end at Villonova on Saturday. Even during the streak, the margin for error for this team was very slim. They went through eight games winning by 5, 1, 6, 2, 7,...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-25-2008
Nova is fresh off big win vs. UConn and this line tells you all that is needed to know. Nova was a slight favorite vs Connecticut but is now a slight dog vs Marquette? Marquette has lost to ...