Free March Madness Bracket Picks - January 31, 2008

We scored another winning night for +2.7 units last night. That makes 26 out of the last 36 winning days. We hit another top-rated play making our top-rated 4 & 5 unit selections are now 49-16 (75%) over this run. Over the past five weeks we are up 61.9 units ($6,190 for $100 players). We have three more top-rated plays tonight.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CBB	120-72 last 192 picks	63%	+$6190
NBA	11-7 last 18 picks	61%	+$1000
NHL	23-20 last 43 picks	53%	+$1710
TOTAL			+$8900

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Providence at Notre Dame (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Notre Dame -8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Providence has been vulnerable to teams that can bury three-pointers all season. Teams that can score on the perimeter have really crippled the Friars zone, as evidenced by losses to Marquette, Seton Hall and Rhode Island. Notre Dame hasn't lost in this building in an eternity and Connecticut is the only team to defeat a pointspread this low in South Bend this season. In that game they were down by 20 at one point. Harangody gives Irish inside out presence, and will be tough to defend. The Friars have dropped two straight and are shooting poorly in their last three, hitting just 37, 38 and 43 percent respectively. That won't be enough vs. a dominant Irish team on their home floor.

Wisconsin Green Bay has just two road wins on the season, and a closer look gives an indication why. They have played at Ohio State, Massachusettes, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Butler and Valpo. Not too many teams in this conference are getting wins in any of those places. That means they are 11-2 vs all others, so they come into this contest a bit under the radar. This is a good shooting team, hitting 45% and 78% of their FTs. Those six teams shot a combined 49% vs the Phoenix, while all others are at about 40%, so W-GB is more than capable of defending Wright State. They can really dial it up from long distance, as they possess three players connecting on over 41%. Wright State comes home after three straight road wins, but to teams with a combined record of 21-38. Their last three against teams with a winning record have all gone in the loss column. And, they are just 2-5 ATS last seven at home. The Phoenix have a shot to get the win here, so we will grab the points.

What happened to both of these clubs? After starting 9-2, the Gophers have dropped five of seven. Michigan has lost nine of ten to drop to 5-15 on the season. But let's look at the overall teams here. One team is 5-15 and the other is 12-6. One team has all 5 starters back from last season while the other has just 1. Why such a low line? Yes, the game is in Ann Arbor. But, Minnesota is the much better ballclub. Minnesota is 4-4 on the road, outscoring opponents by 3 ppg. Michigan is 3-6 at home, losing by 2 ppg. In converence play, Michigan is just 1-7. It's not just year for Michigan. Over the past two seasons they are 11-22 ATS vs. winning teams and 8-17 ATS vs. teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game (Minnesota allows 63.1 per game). In the underdog role, they are 7-18 ATS over that span. Maybe at some point John Beilein will turn things around here, but not tonight. Minnesota rolls.

Temple features a strong tandem in Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale who combine for over half of the team's total scoring. Christmas pours in nearly 21 per game along with 6.3 rpg. This team is playing great defense of late, allowing just 60.8 ppg over their last five games. They get a Fordham team that is struggling to score (62.6 per game ove rtheir last five). Fordham is just 6-16 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that hit 45%+ from the field (Temple averages 46.5%). The Rams are also just 11-22 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons.

Florida International is 6-6 at home but they have yet to find the win column in seven tries on the road this season. They are shooting a dismal 40.8% from the field away from home, leading to just 59.3 ppg. That's just not going to get it done. Denver is another team that struggles on offense, but at least they have the defense to keep them in games. They are allowing just 53.1 ppg at home on the season, the main reason they are 7-1 here. FIU allows 22 ppg more per game than that on the road. FIU is 4-12 ATS the past two seasons vs. losing teams. Denver is 14-4 ATS over that span at home vs. conference opponents. They are also 26-13 ATs in their last 39 home games coming off a road loss and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after scoring 50 points or less.

Portland State has been off for nearly two weeks while Montana has played three games during that span. Will the layoff help or hurt the Vikings? We think it helps. They are off a hard fought OT win so have felt good. And they will obviously be verywell rested and prepared for this game. They are 6-1 at home, scoring 78.4 ppg here. Over their last five games overall they have averaged 77.4. Montana has lost all six games ATS over the pat two seasons vs. teams with a winning record after 15 games. Montana has covered the spread in two of their last three games but they are a perfect 0-8 ATS in that situation teh past two seasons.

The Aggies have taken on a very difficult road slate early, which should pay off in a vist off the mainland tonight at Hawaii. New Mexico State has been on the road vs W. Virginia, Duke,T exas, Louisville and Boise State already, and have now won six of eight. This team is beginning to gel. They can score, with six double-digit scorers, and a few others that contribute significantly as well. The Warriors not like teams of old that put away opponents at home as they are just .500 this year. When you consider the home slate has been laiden with cupcakes, the 6-6 mark becomes suspect. Four of the home wins are to 4-18 Coppin State, 3-17 Alcorn State, 4-14 Long Beach State and 9-12 Centanary. None of the six wins have come vs a team over .500. The Warriors are really giving it up on the defensive end, and New Mexico State has a lot of answers on the offensive end.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball sports book.
• View our NCAA basketball gambling philosophy here.
• Check out ncaa final four here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 NCAA basketball season preview.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Take a look at our 2007 NCAA basketball picks here.
• Here we show our ncaa march madness brackets.
• View our NCAA basketball ATS recprds here.
• View our blog college basketball here.
• Here we show our free college basketball picks.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Check out college basketball lines and odds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-30-2008
This Saint John's team is young and simply not coming together as a unit. They have now dropped seven of eight, and the offense is sluggish at best. The Red Storm shoots just 42%, and a lack of ba...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-29-2008
Austin Peay has put nine of their last eleven in the win column and are playing at a very high level right now. The Governors sit atop the Ohio Valley Conference right now. SE Missouri State sat ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-28-2008
The Phoenix risen from obscurity with a 15-win season in 05-06. But the "before" and "after" have not been so great. This season they own six wins vs. teams that are a woeful ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-27-2008
These teams shared the Atlantic 10 title last year with 13-3 records. This season Xavier has established themsevles as the superior team. The Muskateers are coming off an impressive beat down of Dayto...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-26-2008
#15 Butler comes into this one at 18-2, 7-2 in league play and a perfect 7-0 at home. Illinois Chicago will be grossly overmatched here. The Flames come in losers of two of their last three, dropping ...