We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Butler at Youngstown State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Butler -9.5

Probably the wrong time for Youngstown State to be seeing Butler. Butler has had an amazing run standing at 20-2. Not only are they winning they are covering games as well. Butler stands at 14-5 ATS, and are amongst the top teams in the nation in that area. Youngstown State has been quite the opposite as they have failed to cover seven of their last eight games. Butler held Youngstown State to a season low 39 points earlier in the year on just 31% shooting. This should be yet another win and cover for Butler.

VCU has been on a tear winning ten straight games. Hofstra has gotten off to a slow start 0-3 but has been equally impressive since going 16-3. The big difference here is the tremendous home-court advantage Hofstra owns. They have won 27 in a row at home, since just a one point loss to ODU. They have not lost a game at home by more than 3 points since 2003-04! This is a lot to overcome and with Hofstra playing equally as well as VCU, the home-court is the difference maker.

Florida has rattled off 12 straight wins and appears to be on a collision course with the Final Four to defend their title. One of the problems with a team defending a National Championship though is that everyone is gunning for them. And, the public loves backing them so it forces the odds-makers to place the value on the other side. Vanderbilt has been red-hot beating LSU and Mississippi on the road. They have won with big offense, shooting over 50% in four of their last five games or by holding opponents under 40% shooting. This is a lot of points to be giving a red-hot team, so we will take advantage and play the big dog.

We usually do not lay a lot of points with a huge favorite but there are times when the value dictates otherwise. Delaware has been a horrible team all season long winning just four games. A closer look shows how they have fared vs. the top teams in the Colonial. They lost by 19 to VCU, 25 to Hofstra, 35 to ODU, and 22 to Towson. They were out-shot 51% to 38%. They were out-shot from three by 48-38%. They made an average of seven more turnovers per game and had nearly a 10 rebound per game deficit. Average loss was by 25.3 ppg. George Mason started slow at 6-7 but since has been 6-2 and is beating up on Colonial cupcakes. They own conference wins both home and away of 18, 25, 21, 29 and 21 points. So we have a horrible team that is worse against the top of the conference playing a team in George Mason that is killing the soft teams. George Mason is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. terrible teams (those outscored by 8+ points per game). They are also 13-4 ATS over that span as a double-digit home favorite. We will lay the points as Mason wins by 20+.

One of these struggling teams will get a well needed win tonight. The question is which one? Alabama got off to a 13-1 start but has been just 2-4 since. They have held serve at home but the road has been a complete nightmare. Four road losses this year by 21, 24, 27, and 14 points is an indication that the wheels aren't loose, but rather have come off. The same can be said for LSU as they have struggled on the road, but won all games at home (save one loss to a red-hot Vandy team). Alabama has shown to be a team on life-support on the road, and picking against them here is the right thing to do.

BYU is certainly having a much better year than Utah. Much of BYU's success has occurred at home where they are unbeaten. The problem is they have struggled on the road again this year. They are just 1-6 SU on the road, and the win was in OT vs. Weber St. They have yet to cover a game on the road this year,and are a paltry 24-46 ATS on the road the last seven years. Utah has already beaten Air Force at home and comes into this game 7-3 ATS as an underdog. BYU has not won a regular season game in Utah since 1994! The road woes continue tonight.

This is a tough spot for Stanford as they are coming off a season's emotional high with a big come from behind win vs. top ranked UCLA. That is difficult in itself but they face in state rival California on Saturday, and with this being a non-conference game, it sets up as a perfect sandwich game. Gonzaga has had a very aggressive schedule this season, and at 15-7 don't have any bad losses except perhpas at St. Mary's. This is the last big game for the Zags befoe the NCAA tournament, so they will play a strong 40 minutes. They shoot 49% from the floor and 40% from three point land, so they will be a tough out for Stanford even if they can harbor the emotional intensity to match what they will get from Gonzaga.