College Basketball Ncaa Tournament Predictions - January 29, 2008

We dropped a couple of units last night as we went 0-1-1 in college. We swept in the NBA going 3-0 for +10 units. Over the past five weeks we are hitting 62% for +48.7 units on the college hardwood and in the NBA we are hitting 69% over the past week for +16 units.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CBB	111-67 last 178 picks	62%	+$4870
NBA	11-5 last 16 picks	69%	+$1600
NHL	20-18 last 38 picks	53%	+$1350
TOTAL			+$7820

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Austin Peay at Se Missouri State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Austin Peay -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Austin Peay has put nine of their last eleven in the win column and are playing at a very high level right now. The Governors sit atop the Ohio Valley Conference right now. SE Missouri State sat at 11-5 right after the first of the year, and has really struggled since. They have now dropped their last six games to fall back to .500. The problem is they are getting hammered off the glass. SEMST has been out-rebounded in the six losses by 61, or over 10 per game, and are allowing 13 offensive rebounds a game. They have also commited 389 turnovers with just 302 assists. When you can't rebound, and turn the ball over it is hard to find the win column, especially vs a good team. We like Austin Peay to continue their winning ways.

The Demon Deacons haven't lost here in 15 tries. While they have lost three of four, they have faced very stiff compeittion in their last five games in BYU, Boston College, Maryland, Florida State and Clemson. All three losses came on the road as an underdog. They have coverd the spread in four of five games, competitive in each game except the trip to BC. The Hurricanes have lost three of their last four both SU and ATS. They have yet to win on the road in the ACC and sit at just 5-3 on the road. Wake applies a great pressure defense that will befuddle Miami here. Take the home team to make it 16 straight home wins.

George Mason enters this contest with six losses, all coming off of their home-court. They have been perfect at home riding a 9-0 mark into this contest. They have opened some eyes with a convincing win vs Dayton, and Horizon leader Cleveland State. They also have wins vs Kansas State and South Carolina. They shoot the ball well, hit their free throws, and play a sticky defense. The Rams have now won 12 of 13, and are playing great basketball. But road losses at James Madison and Hampton provides some room for doubt. The Rams success has been on the defensive end where they hold opponents to 38% shooting. George Mason won the two games played two years ago, but lost the two games played last year, and will have something to prove here. VCU is 8-1 in conference play, while GMU stands at 6-3. Mason really needs this one, and are playing at home where they have yet to be beaten, and we expect them to bring their "A" game and come away with the win and cover.

Morehead State has won five of their last six games, with the lone loss coming by one point in overtime. They are a perfect 8-0 at home this season having dropped five league opponents here. They can do it to Tennessee Tech too. Tech is just 4-9 on the road this season. The big difference here is defense as Morehead allows just 58.1 per game at home vs. 72.4 per game given up by Tennessee Tech on the road. Under head coach Mike Sutton, this Tech team is just 13-23 ATS in expected close games (line at -3 to +3). They are also 23-37 ATS under Sutton as an underdog and 28-45 ATS on the road. This line is low as we see Morehead State winning this one easily.

It doesn't get much worse than Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks have lost 16 of 20 games including all eight on the road. Tennessee State in contrast, after starting the season 6-10 has won three of their last four games. The last win over Tennessee Tech on the road was a real confidence-booster. Blowouts in the making require domination on at least one side of the floor. We have that here as Tennessee State is averaging 78 ppg at home while Jacksonville State allows 77.8 per game on the road. The Gamecocks are allowing 49% shooting their last five games and are going to be eaten alive by this Tigers offense.

Wichita State has covered nine of the last ten games between these two teams here at home. They have lost six in a row and eight of nine but they are favored here for a reason. This is their best chance to nail a win. Missouri State is off a bitter loss to Evansville. The Bears lost by 19 points in a game they were supposed to win. We think they suffer a hangover of sorts here. They are 1-9 on the road this season and 0-7 ATS. The offenses here are pretty even (Bears scoring 61.9 per game on the road and Shockers getting 61.5 at home). But, the defensive difference is huge as Wichita averages 59.4 ppg allowed at home while Missouri State gives up 71.3 per game on the road - a 12 point difference. If there's one thing Wichita State does well, it's rebound. And, the Bears are 1-8 ATS this season vs. good rebounding teams (those that outrebound opponents by 4+ per game). This line should be MUCH higher and we like the home team as a result.

Virginia Tech will get a lift tonight for two reasons. They just won a big game on the road at Boston College, and they will get Jeff Allen back after serving a two game suspension. Allen is their leading rebounder and second leading scorer. The Hokies have played very well on the road in the ACC, as they have already won at BC and Virginia, and their only blemish at home on the season has been to Duke. They play great defense, holding opponents to under 40% shooting. The road has never been kind to Florida State in ACC play. They have gone just 7-44 over the last 6+ years, and even in the past 2+ years where they won 20 and 22 games, they have won less than half their road games in the ACC. Florida State is alos not playing well right now as they have lost four of their last five and we like Va Tech in this spot at home.

Results: 5-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our college basketball sports book.
• Read our college basketball gambling philosophy here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa final four.
• View our updated 2007 season college basketball handicapping preview.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Updated today: 2007 NCAA basketball prior picks.
• Read our march madness brackets here.
• Check out college basketball ATS recrds here.
• Read our college basketball picks blog here.
• Read our free college basketball pick here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball record.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball spreads.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-28-2008
The Phoenix risen from obscurity with a 15-win season in 05-06. But the "before" and "after" have not been so great. This season they own six wins vs. teams that are a woeful ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-27-2008
These teams shared the Atlantic 10 title last year with 13-3 records. This season Xavier has established themsevles as the superior team. The Muskateers are coming off an impressive beat down of Dayto...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-26-2008
#15 Butler comes into this one at 18-2, 7-2 in league play and a perfect 7-0 at home. Illinois Chicago will be grossly overmatched here. The Flames come in losers of two of their last three, dropping ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-25-2008
Canisius is 3-15 including 1-7 in league play including a 77-49 loss to Siena on Monday. They are 0-9 on the road whre they get 57 points per game on 38.1% shooting. Their road games have seen them lo...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-24-2008
Florida International hasn't won on the road in six tries. This team is getting outscored by over 16 ppg away from home. They will be more down than usual after suffering a heartbreak 2-point loss...