Ncaa Basketball Expert Picks - January 28, 2009

We went 1-0 last night adding to our three week run of 40-20 hitting 67% and +47.8 units.  Tonight we have five premium plays including one 5 unit and three 4 unit selections.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Illinois Chicago at Wisconsin Green Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Illinois Chicago +243 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 4.9)

The Phoenix are off and running with a 15-6 mark on the season, but four games weren't even lined, so not quite as good as it looks and they did lose to an average Oakland team at home. Flames are going to be highly motivated to get on the court after their worst showing in years, where they managed just 31 points vs Wright St. shooting just 26% for the game. Flames have shown the bounce-back capability following a dreadful offensive performance as they have won five of their last seven after scoring less than 50 in their previous game. Flames with the surprise here, and I'll take them on the moneyline.

Points by the Tennessee offense suddenly declining as teams realize they need to slow this team down and Memphis just held them to a season low 52 on the Vols home-court. Bayou Bengals may just have the recipe to do just that, slow them down. The Tigers haven't allowed an SEC opponent over 68 yet this season and just four of 19 have managed even as much as 70. Opening up the archives shows seven of last nine in this matchup have gone to the under and the Tigers after an ATS loss, bear down to play some gritty defense, and are 23-10 to the under after the ATS loss. Not as high scoring an affair as it looks, and I'm backing the UNDER here.

Towson showing inability to play competitively in the Colonial dropping six straight games, four by double-digits. Tribe numbers have suffered early with most Colonial games vs the top of the conference and finally get one they can bully around a bit. Towson showing little fight as a dog as they have lost straight up when listed as a dog in nine of ten this season and going back to last season have sprung the upset in just two of their last 21 as a dog. No upset here, and I'll back William & Mary on the moneyline.

Huskies are much improved from a team that managed just seven wins two years ago and six last year as they have already achieved six this season. Red hawks play ugly, which means defense is the strong suit here. They have only managed to top 70 points on the season one time, so a bushel of points here becomes very appealing. They have averaged under 60 over their last eight, so if the Huskies can find their way into the mid 40s they are going to be inside this number and they have failed to reach 50 just one time this season. Huskies hang around big numbers as they have been 8-3 ATS on the road at 13 or more, while the Red Hawks just 2-7 ATS at home trying to topple 13 or more on the line. Too many points here, and N. Illinois gets the call.

Have to question huge number pinned to the Mountaineers in this one. This certainly isn't a team that plays transition basketball and for the most part their games are played in the half-court. Three Big East home games show offensive output of 55, 62 and 67. It shows up in their last three results trying to topple big numbers as they are 0-3 ATS vs a double-digit line in their last three and not clawing hard vs inferior opponents at home where they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs teams with a road record of .400 or less. Johnies have enough firepower and play hard enough on the defensive end to stay close in a typical ugly Big East war. St. John's gets the call.

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View 2008 NCAA basketball season preview here.
• Check out NCAA basketball betting here.
• View our updated 2008 NCAA basketball picks.
• View our updated NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy.
• View our updated college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View our NCAA basketball blog here.
• View free college basketball predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads here.
• Updated today: ncaa march madness brackets.
• View our updated college basketball against-the-spread standings.
• View our ncaa march madness picks here.
• View our NCAA basketball picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-27-2009
The Badgers have long been known to be a methodical, defensive team that runs the clock and makes teams run their offense through most of it as well. The Boilermakers hung 70 points on the Badgers in ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-25-2009
Yes, Rider is 10-8 while St. Peters is just 5-14, but I like St. Peters chances in this one enough to back them for a straight-up win. Rider is just 4-7 on the road. And their defense is playing very ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-24-2009
This is a big rivalry game between these two that goes back a long time. The Golden Eagles are out of the gate at 12-0 at home, but this is a huge number to ask them to cover in a rivalry game, especi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-23-2009
The Dons have suffered six pointspread losses in a row, but they have come at the expense of the top four teams in the conference including Boston College on the road, which beat North Carolina there....

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-22-2009
The UL Monroe Warhawks have played 10 games on the road and have yet to break through as they stand at 0-10. Their competition, for the most part, just hasn't been that stiff. The Owls certainly h...