Final Four Bracket - January 27, 2008

We went 4-3 yesterday but dropped one unit. Today we come back with seven plays...

WUNDERDOG 2008 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CBB	107-63 last 170 picks	63%	+$4880
NBA	7-3 last 10 picks	70%	+$920
NHL	20-18 last 38 picks	53%	+$1350
TOTAL			+$7150

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Xavier at Massachusetts (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Xavier -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

These teams shared the Atlantic 10 title last year with 13-3 records. This season Xavier has established themsevles as the superior team. The Muskateers are coming off an impressive beat down of Dayton, winning by 26 points. UMASS started off 11-2 but they have since lost three of five losing to Vanderbilt and St. Joe's twice. The Minutemen score a lot, but their defense is extremely suspect. They are allowing 78.5 ppg on the season and 85.2 in their last five. Xavier's defense in contrast is great, allowing 62 ppg and 61 over their last five. The Muskateers are 21-10 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams and we expect them to rise to the occasion and make another statement here.

Clemson is coming off a hard-fought OT victory over Wake Forest. It was their second OT game in the last couple of weeks and their third overall this season. Miami has lost just one game at home this season, to North Carolina. Clemson is no North Carolina, yet they are considered a pick'em here. The Tigers are just 3-3 in their last six games. Granted, Miami has lost three straight but those losses came to the aforementioned Tar Heels, NC State and Boston College. They are averaging 82.5 ppg at home, winning bny 18 ppg. We like the home dog here.

It has been a rough stretch for N. Illinois, who went 4-23 in their last 27 games last season, and opened this year at 0-6. There are some positive signs however, as they are now 5-6 in their last 11. They are 0-8 on the road, but a closer look reveals they have played all tough road games, with the exception of one. They have played their eight road games vs teams that have a combined 68-11 home winning record, with four of the 11 losses coming to nationally ranked teams. The exception, was playing at 5-5 Loyola Chicago, a game they took to OT. Bowling Green certainly doesn't look like a dominant home team, as they own just one win by greater than this pointspread at home, and their inconsistency shows by the fact that they are 6-13-1 ATS after an ATS win. The Huskies may not show up as a viable road team at 0-8, but the losses were all to dominating home teams. And their OT game was vs an ordinary home team. We look for the Huskies to hang tough in this one.

Iona has come a long way since last season, but still doesn't have enough to put away the better teams at home. The last three games vs winning teams at home have all gone into the loss column by 7 points or more. Siena is 10-4 in their last 14, with two of the losses coming to St. Joe's and Memphis, and are a much better team. The Gaels still lack the go-to scorer down the stretch that has been missing now for a couple of years. Siena has three players that will give Iona some problems in Ubiles, Hasbrouck and Franklin. They also have a competent PG in Moore (2-1 turnover-assist ratio). The Gaels have coughed it up nearly 20 times per game with 391 turnovers compared to just 282 assists. Lost possessions equals lost game.

The Redbirds return home after a couple of road setbacks where they are an unblemished 10-0. The Sycamores are a great team at home, sitting at 9-0, but a horrible team on the road at 1-8. Their road woes are nothing new as their last nine conference road losses have all come by double-digits. Their last 5+ years in conference on the road tally stands at 5-44 SU, with 26 double-digit losses. The Redbirds finished 1-13 last season, but have to be the most improved team in the MVC, and their average winning margin at home this season has been 20 ppg! Looks like another double-digit loss pinned on the Sycamores.

Virginia holds opponents to under 70 points per game on the season. At home, they hold foes to just 63.1 per game. The Cavaliers are off a 2-point loss to Florida State but they coverd the spread. They are 5-1 UNDER in their last six following an ATS win. With their strength on the defensive end, we see this game going UNDER the total.

The Dukies have been rolling, having now won 16 of 17 games. They are off a big 17 point win over Virginia Tech. It's officially time for them to be overrated. They now travel on the road to Maryland who has already handed a top 5 team a loss this season. There will be no fear here on the part of the Terps after knocking off top-ranked North Carolina. It will be just the opposite as this arena gets crazy. Maryland held the Tar Heels to just 38% from the field. THey have held eight straight opponents to under 40% shooting! That's the kind of defense that upsets high-ranked teams. Duke's offense is just average on the road and they could find it rough today. The Blue Devils are just 12-23 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams at 60%+ SU. Maryland is 11-2 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ ppg over the past two seasons. Again, it's time for Duke to fall ATS as they are 1-10 ATS the past two seasons afetr having covered the spread in 4+ of their last six games.

Results: 4-3

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• Read our 2007 college basketball pick season results here.
• Read our ncaa tournament picks here.
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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-26-2008
#15 Butler comes into this one at 18-2, 7-2 in league play and a perfect 7-0 at home. Illinois Chicago will be grossly overmatched here. The Flames come in losers of two of their last three, dropping ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-25-2008
Canisius is 3-15 including 1-7 in league play including a 77-49 loss to Siena on Monday. They are 0-9 on the road whre they get 57 points per game on 38.1% shooting. Their road games have seen them lo...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-24-2008
Florida International hasn't won on the road in six tries. This team is getting outscored by over 16 ppg away from home. They will be more down than usual after suffering a heartbreak 2-point loss...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-23-2008
The Seahawks bring a very balanced attack that features four starters averaging double digits. They are 6-2 at home while Northeastern is just 3-9 on the road. With the Huskies averaging just 63.4 ppg...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-22-2008
This certainly is not a vintage Illinois team. They enter with just one road win and a losing record on the season. Even though they haven't put as many in the win column as they would have liked,...