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Ncaa Basketball Pool Picks - January 24, 2009We lost on our lone pick last night, giving back a few units. Over the last two and a half weeks, we are hitting 70% of our picks to the tune of 35-15 (+52.1 units). Today we roll out a stacked card of seven premium picks.
 Today's NCAA Basketball Picks: This is a big rivalry game between these two that goes back a long time. The Golden Eagles are out of the gate at 12-0 at home, but this is a huge number to ask them to cover in a rivalry game, especially with a date at Notre Dame to follow. The Blue Demons are down this season, but not out and have managed to hold seven of their last 10 opponents to 70 points or less, which makes this number take on an even bigger look. While the rivalry will get the DePaul "A" game here, I am not sure the same interest will be held by the Golden Eagles. DePaul hangs inside the number here. Game: Memphis at Tennessee (3:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 150.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Volunteers really like to push the ball, but will get a lot of resistance today from a defensive-tough Memphis team. Memphis has allowed just two teams to top the 75-point mark against them on the season and it took an OT and a blowout for that to happen. The only other team that got to 75 was Lamar, but in a 30+ point blowout that saw a lot of garbage time. This Memphis team has not allowed anyone to reach 70 other than that Lamar team in the blowout, in their last nine games, with six of the opponents in the 50s or less. The Tigers have followed a straight-up win by playing 25-10 to the UNDER in their last 35, while the Vols have played UNDER to the tune of 15-7 after an ATS win. I'll play the UNDER here. Game: Houston at Arizona (6:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Houston +5.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) These teams are flipping roles this season. The Cougars are pouncing on their prey to a 12-4 start, while Arizona who is in the dance every year, is not going to make it this season as they enter this one at 11-8. The Wildcats have now dropped five of seven, and have already gone down to a C-USA opponent at home in UAB, who the Cougars handled by 19 points. The Cougars are playing spoiler for the home crowd, covering 10 of last 13 on the road and are catching a normally tough Wildcat team in a down year. The Cougars get the call. Game: U Conn at Notre Dame (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 154 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) These teams met here last year with the expectation of a high-scoring affair. With a total set at 152, it never materialized. The Huskies are a strong defending team, and Notre Dame won't be running up-and-down the court on them for easy hoops. Offensively, the Huskies aren't generating on the road as they were held to 61 at West Virginia, 68 at Buffalo, and 67 at St. John's, but all were wins. The Irish have scored at will against the weaker road teams, but have played four straight UNDERS at home against teams with a winning road record. I don't see this game being the exception, so I'm backing the UNDER here. Game: Montana State at Southern Mississippi (8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Montana State +15 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Sometimes by default, the oddsmakers hands are forced when these small-conference teams line up against a middle-of-the-pack conference team. The Golden Eagles have 11 wins on the season, but five came in games where they weren't lined, meaning they played some real cupcakes to get to 11-6. The Bobcats have put an equal amount of wins on the board, and have road wins at Oregon State, and Colorado, so there is no reason why they can't hang around in this one as their 7-1 ATS mark in their last eight as a 13+ dog would indicate. The Golden Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 out of conference. I can hardly see them motivated here, and the Bobcats stick around and get the call. Game: Northwestern at Michigan (8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Northwestern +6 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) Northwestern may only be 2-4 in the Big-10 so far, but all six games were played against teams at the top of the conference. Those teams carry a combined overall record of 88-24, and the Wildcats won two of them. They don't have the name of a top school, but they have a team capable of playing like one. The top of the conference has been beating up on the Wolverines as they have now dropped three straight. This is a big-time sleeper team in the Wildcats, which are catching the books off-guard as well as their Big-10 opponents. This has been a road-dominated series, with the visitor catching the money in four of the last five, and I like the Wildcats here to add to that total. Game: Southeast Missouri State at Murray State (8:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Southeast Missouri State +18.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) Southeast Missouri State has not found the win column in nine road games. They don't shoot well, rebound well, or defend well. All they do is take down the big numbers the oddsmakers keep throwing at them. They have covered three straight overall and four of their last five as a dog of 15 points or more. You have to go back to Nov. 20, to find the Racers beating a Div-1 team by a greater margin than they are expected to topple in this one. Their 8-20-1 ATS home record against teams that have a winning percentage of .400 or less, says they will have trouble getting the cover. So does their 0-8 ATS mark after covering their last game. I'll take the bushel of points and go with Southeast Missouri State in this one. Results: 4-3 NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-23-2009 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-22-2009 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-21-2009 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-20-2009 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-18-2009 |
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