Ncaa Basketball Pick - January 24, 2008

We finished 5-2 for +5.8 units last night including a win with our 5-unit Game of the Month. Last night's win marked 21 winning days out of the last 29 and boosted us to 63% (97-56) for a bookie busting +45.6 units.

Today we go with seven picks and include a Dog Pound article about OJ Mayo and Carmelo Anthony being in hot water with the NCAA.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Florida International at Arkansas State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arkansas State -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Florida International hasn't won on the road in six tries. This team is getting outscored by over 16 ppg away from home. They will be more down than usual after suffering a heartbreak 2-point loss which dropped them to 5-12 overall and 2-5 in conference play. Arkansas State is just 8-11 overall but 7-3 at home, beating foes by 12 ppg on average.

Cleveland State is off to their best start in conference play in 15 years but it comes to an end tonight. Wisconsin Green Bay is off three straight losses but is still favored in this game. They have won six of seven at home and feature an awesom one-two punch in Mike Schachtner and Ryan Tillema who combine for 30 ppg. The Phoenix are 14-3 ATS the past three seasons to a line of -3 to +3. They are also 17-3 ATS over that span when playing with rest (5+ days of rest). Under Tod Kowalczyk this team is 11-2 ATS coming of a hjome upset loss and we like them to be focused and flex their home muscle.

Appalachian State is on fire having won six straight games, covering seven in a row. All five of the Mountaineer's top scorers are all shooting over 45%, while Furman shoots just 40% as a team, giving up 48%. The Paladins are off a big, surprising win over Charleston in their last game, will have App. St. focused and Furman emotionally drained. App. St. came here last year and got caught, losing in OT by four points. We certainly don't see any reason why they won't have their game on tonight. The Mountaineers have put up 90 points per game in their last three, and just have too much going on right now to not put a hapless Furman squad away early.

Murray State has won five straight games. While sitting at 10-7 on the year, they are 7-1 at home where their defense is very good. Tennessee Tech comes in with a 4-8 road record. Away from home they have shot just 40.6% from the field this season. They are just 2-10 ATS the past two seasons when facing a winning team on the road. They are also 1-15 ATS on the road if coming off a 15+ point win.

San Jose has really struggled with their program over the last five years, going just 30-117 over that span. Their road woes have plagued them even more as coming into this season, they were 2-25 in their last 27 road games. Idaho has been equally poor, as they have gone just 8-52 over the past two years. Idaho has not turned anything around, as they enter this contest at 4-13, but just 1-6 in their last seven. San Jose has turned the corner. They have nine wins on the season already, but more importantly, four wins on the road. Keep in mind they have won just seven times on the road in the last five years combined, prior to this season. A couple of first year players have made the difference as Graham and DaShawn Wright are their top two scorers. The Spartans are coming on, and are now 6-3 over their last nine. We also must make a note of the fact, that even when San Jose State could not win on the road, as we pointed out they have been 2-25 on the road in their last 27, both wins came at Idaho. While Idaho has not made any improvements, this San Jose State team is markedly improved, and the odds-makers are treating them as they have in the past. But they have earned more than that with their up-graded play this season, and we will back them to get their 5th road win of the season.

UC Davis had a horrible first half in a bad loss to Cal Fullerton, but will build off of 56% shooting performance in the 2nd half. What they found was a scorer in Vince Oliver who leads the team in scoring, and puts in 29. The 140 points scored in the last two games shows the offense is finally coming around, especially Oliver who has really stepped it up. Cal Poly has just one win to show for their last six games and has really struggled. They don't have a go-to player, and no one scores double-digits. The shooting has been horrible as they are under 40% as a team, and under 30% from deep as a team. Their top four guards don't show anyone hitting higher than 35%, and with the UC Davis offense beginning to show signs of life, this is too many points.

UCLA's nine-game winning streak came to a halt as the Bruins suffered a terrible 9 point loss to USC in a game UCLA was favored to win by 12. The Ducks are off of two straight losses but they came at the hands of Washington and Washington State - both on the road. They remain a great offensive team, especially at home. They have four players averaging double-digits. At home they are averaging 89 ppg and are undefeated. This place will be rocking here and the Ducks should be able to keep it close.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View college basketball sports book here.
• Hop over to our college basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated ncaa tournament picks.
• Take a look at our 2007 NCAA basketball gambling preview here.
• View college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out 2007 college basketball pick season results here.
• Hop over to our ncaa tournament picks here.
• View NCAA basketball ATS records here.
• Check out our updated college basketball picks blog.
• Updated today: free college basketball picks.
• View our updated college basketball prior predictions.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball lines and odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-23-2008
The Seahawks bring a very balanced attack that features four starters averaging double digits. They are 6-2 at home while Northeastern is just 3-9 on the road. With the Huskies averaging just 63.4 ppg...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-22-2008
This certainly is not a vintage Illinois team. They enter with just one road win and a losing record on the season. Even though they haven't put as many in the win column as they would have liked,...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-21-2008
You don't see Syracuse absorb too many double-digit losses at home. In the last seven years it has only happened seven times, with the home loss to Villanova on Saturday being the seventh. The fir...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-20-2008
Both of these teams are coming off upsets. Temple beat 20th ranked Xavier by 19 points on Wednesday while the Bilikens took care of #23 Rhode Island on Thursday. The Owls are getting 70.4 ppg behind D...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-19-2008
Losses to Drake, Pittsburgh, W. Virginia and Rhode Island (all top teams) is all that separates Duquense from being perfect. Shawn James has really bottled up the middle for Duquense, as he has alread...