Basketball Gambling Pick - January 23, 2008

We went 1-0 last night, bringing our win total to 20 days out of the last 28. Tonight we feature a top-rated 5-unit play - our College Hoops Game of the Month...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Northeastern at N C Wilmington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on N C Wilmington -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Seahawks bring a very balanced attack that features four starters averaging double digits. They are 6-2 at home while Northeastern is just 3-9 on the road. With the Huskies averaging just 63.4 ppg on the road, they will struggle to keep up with Wilmington's superior offense. Northewaster shoots just 40.4% from the field on the road while the Seahawks hit at a 49.4% clip at home. Northeastern has dropped two of three while Wilmington has won three of four. We see the Seahawks pulling away fairly easily here.

Georgia Tech is a young team and that doesn't usually translate well on the road. They have lost the turnover battle in their last four on the road and on the season they have a negative turnover to assist ratio. That is often a young teams undoing on the road. NC State has just one blemish at home by 2 points. They have played very well against good teams, but struggled with elite teams such as North Carolina, Michigan Stateand Clemson. Georgia Tech hasn't beaten NC State on the road forever! It surely doesn't appear that they have what it takes to end this streak, so we are on the Wolfpack.

South Florida began to get some expectations after a 10-4 start, and a win in their Big East opener. Those expectations have faded fast as they have now dropped five in a row, all by double digits. Last year held the same promise with a 9-5 start, but they finished 0-6 in the league, and dropped five of those six games by double-digits. The resume now shows them at 1-11 SU in their last twelve Big East games and 1-11 ATS, with 10 of the 11 losses coming by double digits. They are truly over-matched in the Big East as they have gone just 5-33 SU in their 2+ years in the league. It won't get any easier tonight as they square off with a Louisville team that is getting healthier, confident, and playing well. Seton Hall threw a perfect game against them, as they shot 50%, hit 13 three's, and turned the ball over just seven times. The Cards will come to South Florida breathing fire. They owned the Bulls last year as they beat them by 20 at home and 26 here in the Bulls own building. The Bulls string of five double-digit losses will be extended to six here.

George Mason is a perfect 9-0 at home on the season. Old Dominion is 7-3 at home but an awful 2-7 on the road this season. This is clearly a young team (two starters from last year) that hasn't yet learned to deal with the rigors of road play. Compare that to an experienced and mature Patriots team that has all five starters back from last season. This line should be much higher and provides a lot of value on a home team that should win very easily.

Texas Tech has lost at home just once - to Stanford by 1 point. They are a very difficult team to beat in their own building. Playing in the rugged Big 12, they are 60-11 SU at home over the last five years. This season has been no different, and the odds-makers haven't caught up to this team yet, as they have posted an 8-4 ATS mark, which includes five straight covers at home. Missouri is off of a big emotional game at home vs Kansas, where they suffered just their first home loss of the season. The problem is they have gone just 1-6 out of their own building, and 0-4 when playing a true road game. Going back two years,  that makes them 5-22 SU on the road. It is going to be tough playing a good Tech team, especially after all the emotional energy spent trying to knock off Kansas at home. Tech gets this one.

Baylor is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 1969. Too bad that ends tonight. Over the past seven seasons, this Baylor program is 2-42 straight-up when facing a ranked opponent! A&M will be out for blood here as they have dropped two straight after winning 15 of their first 16 games. Despite the three losses, the Aggies are perfect at home this season at 13-0, outscoring foes by alnmost 24 ppg. The Bears are lethal from beyond the arc, hitting 41% on 22 attempts per game. But, Texas A&M is 8-1 the pas three seasons vs. teams that make 8+ three-pointers per game. With Texas A&M's motivation, Baylor's track record vs. great teams, and a 10-45 road mark for the Bears in their last 55 road games, we love the Aggies here.

BYU doesn't lose at home. This team has won 40 straight home games - the second best such run in the nation (behind Memphis). Over the past decade, they are 41-11 straight-up at home vs. winning teams and over that span they are a perfect 39-0 at home when favored on the moneyline at -270 to -850. This season they are 9-0 here, averaging 87.3 ppg. They are winning by 23 points per game on average. Yes, SDSU is playing well, but they already have three road losses and they don't have the offense to keep up with the Cougars. BYU is also 6-1 the past three seasons vs. good defensive teams (those allowing under 64 ppg). Ride the hot home streak here.

Results: 5-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our college basketball sportsbook.
• Take a look at our college basketball betting approach here.
• Check out ncaa final four here.
• Check out 2007 NCAA basketball preview here.
• Take a look at our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Take a look at our 2007 NCAA basketball season prior picks here.
• View our updated march madness bracket.
• Read our NCAA basketball against-the-spread records here.
• Check out NCAA basketball blog here.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball handicapping here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball record here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-22-2008
This certainly is not a vintage Illinois team. They enter with just one road win and a losing record on the season. Even though they haven't put as many in the win column as they would have liked,...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-21-2008
You don't see Syracuse absorb too many double-digit losses at home. In the last seven years it has only happened seven times, with the home loss to Villanova on Saturday being the seventh. The fir...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-20-2008
Both of these teams are coming off upsets. Temple beat 20th ranked Xavier by 19 points on Wednesday while the Bilikens took care of #23 Rhode Island on Thursday. The Owls are getting 70.4 ppg behind D...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-19-2008
Losses to Drake, Pittsburgh, W. Virginia and Rhode Island (all top teams) is all that separates Duquense from being perfect. Shawn James has really bottled up the middle for Duquense, as he has alread...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-18-2008
Iona suffered through one of the worst seasons ever, finishing 2-28 last year. They began this season losing six straight. The culture of losing is tough to rid, but they have found their way back. Th...