We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: San Diego State at Air Force (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on San Diego State +12

San Diego State is a 13-5 team getting 12.5 points. Why? They are at Air Force - a place at which it has historically been very tough to play. Again this year the Academy is 9-0 at home. But, the lustre has worn off a bit in that they are not covering here. They are just 1-2 ATS here and just 6-7 ATS overall. What's bad for them is they ahve lsot five straight against the spread! In each game they were laying 6 or more points and in every game they came up short. The bottom line is that while AF is very good, they remain overvalued in the eyes of the betting public, especially at home. This should be a closer game than the spread indicates.

Alabama is coming off a miserable 20 point loss at Vandy and we expect the Tide to be focused at home for this match-up vs. Georgia. Georgia has been playing at a high level except when on the road vs. good teams. They lost at Florida by 16, Clemson by 15, and Georgia Tech by 9 points. Alabama has played very well at home vs. good teams having beaten LSU by 10, and Oklahoma by 15. Tide rolls!

Big time mismatch here that we'll look to exploit. Richmond has won five games all season and now face a team that hasn't lost a signle game at home. Dayton plays very good defense and Richmond is going to have a very tough time of it. Richmond has managed just 57 points per game on the road. Dayton holds upponents to just 38.7% shooting on their home court. While Dayton struggles on the road, here they win and they win. They are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS in in the last six vs. Richmond. It's a good matchup for Dayton as they are a slow-it-down team and Richmond is just 3-11 ATS the past three seasons vs. these types of teams (taking 53 or less shots per game).

The Buffs are terrible on the road. They are 1-3 SU and ATS and they have gone UNDER in three of four this season. Their defense has actually been a bit better on the road (that's not saying much) but their offense really falters, putting up only 58.5 per game. Nebraska relies on great defense to get it done at home (38.9% FG allowed and 55.4 per game). This is going to be a very tough situation for Colorado and we look for them to have trouble shooting all night. Colorado is 26-15 UNDER in all road games over the past two seasons adn 17-7 UNDER as a road dog.

Oregon has now beaten both Arizona and UCLA and have established themselves as a Final Four candidate. California has been playing much better of late as evidenced by accomplishing the difficult task of is winning three straight on the road in the PAC 10. Oregon has shown a penchant for playing to the level of the competition. They are 5-1 in the PAC 10 but just +10 in net points scored. Their largest winning margin has been 7 points. We like the generous points here and will ride the dog.