Free March Madness Predictions - January 19, 2008

We went 1-0 last night and sit at 85-49 for +43.5 units over the past 24 days with 18 winning days. Saturday's board contains 100 games. We have narrowed to our top plays...

With 100 games going, we have a handful more games that we like (totals and moneylines). If you have interest in these unofficial plays, reply to this email with your interest and we'd be happy to let you know what those plays are.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Duquense at Fordham (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Duquense -160 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.1)

Losses to Drake, Pittsburgh, W. Virginia and Rhode Island (all top teams) is all that separates Duquense from being perfect. Shawn James has really bottled up the middle for Duquense, as he has already blocked 64 shots. They are good at turning the opponent over. They shoot better than 47%, while allowing 39%. They will wear out a thin Fordham team, who has yet to beat a quality opponent all season. It is a team lacking in quality depth, and we see Duquense sweeping the two games this season as they won the first meeting by 12.

Tennessee wants this one. Up by 17 at halftime in the regional semifinals of the big dance last season, the Vols ended up losing by one point to Ohio State. The Vols are on a 10-game winning streak and there will be no letdown here, thanks to that bitter memory from last March. Ohio State is 12-5 overall but just 3-4 on the road. The Buckeyes play excellent defense but Tennessee is 18-4 in their last 22 vs. teams that allow 64 or fewere points per game. They are also a perfect 12-0 the past two seasons at home vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ ppg. Take a motivated Tennessee team here to win this game.

Since conference play has begun, Charlotte has held their opponents to 62 ppg. Yes, UMass can score, but at home they play a different style than on the road. Away from home, the Minutemen score at will and play no defense. At home, they hunker down and play decent defense and also score less. This total is set too high given recent play. We'll back the UNDER.

It has been a longtime since Penn reached this stage of the season with just 5 wins. It is even more eye-opening when you consider the 5 wins are vs Navy,Citadel,NJ Tech,Monmouth, and Elon! Biggest eye-opener of all is 30 point loss to Florida Guld Coast, where they were held to 30 points. The Quakers are getting out-scored by 10 a game, with a suspect schedule, and St' Joesph's is just way better at all 5 positions. Penn has given up 106 to NC, 100 to Virginia, 88 to Miami,Fla., and 87 to Villonova, dropping those by an average of 26 points per game. St. Joesph's should win this one going away.

Clemson has some unfinished business at Duke, as they dropped a heartbreaker here last year by 2. Think they have enough to extend Duke for 40 minutes, and have a shot down the stretch. They extended NC to OT, and have had a tough win on the road at Miss ST., and played another game down to the wire vs Mississippi, which will help here. Tigers can score, and defend, and have covered last 5 as dog. Duke has struggled getting the money vs competent, and unintimidated road teams. They are just 2-6 ATS vs teams with road mark of .600+. Clemson has a shot to win here, we will grab the points.

Kansas is well tested, and has remained perfect. This is their best start since the 1996 season when they went 22-0. They face a Missou team that is perfect at home. But, don't be fooled about the relative strengths of these teams. Kansas has gone 17-0 while Missouri has lost six games already. Defense is the difference. The Jayhawks hold opponents to 58.4 ppg and they don't slip an inch on the road. They have held their last five opponents, including two conference foes, to 57 ppg. How has Missouri fared over that span? They have allowed 71.4 ppg. Kansas is 21-3 the past two seasons vs. winning teams including a 12-1 mark vs. teams winning 60%+ of their games. They are 17-1 vs. teams that allow 42% or less from the field. Missou is just 7-12 vs. such teams the past two seasons. Kanas too much here and they will get the road win, handing the Tigers their first home loss.

We have been riding the Drake money train all season, but it's finally time to get off. Josh Young, their best player went down with an ankle injury vs Indiana State, and he may or may not play here, but hasn't played since. His 16.3 ppg and 80 makes from three will be hard to replace. The Redbirds are firing on all cylinders right now, and this game may go a long way in determining the MVC Champ. As good as Drake has been, they have suffered at home vs the better teams, posting a 3-7-1 ATS mark vs teams with a road winning percentage of .600+. The Redbirds have thrived against competent home teams having amassed a 7-0 ATS mark vs teams with a winning home record.

Wyoming is just 2-6 on the road, allowing 77.7 ppg. Versus conference foes they are 0-3, allowing 82 ppg. San Diego State is undefeated in conference play and 7-1 at home where they allow just 62 ppg. That's a full 20 point difference in defense here tonight. This is a large line but represents tremendous value as Wyoming has zero shot at winning this game.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our college basketball sports book here.
• Check out our updated how to bet NCAA basketball.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Read our 2007 college basketball handicapping preivew here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball Game Preview here.
• View our 2007 NCAA basketball pick results here.
• Check out march madness brackets here.
• Read our college basketball ATS recrds here.
• Read our blog NCAA basketball here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball handicapping.
• Check out college basketball prior picks here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-18-2008
Iona suffered through one of the worst seasons ever, finishing 2-28 last year. They began this season losing six straight. The culture of losing is tough to rid, but they have found their way back. Th...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-17-2008
After an opening loss to Cincinnati, Louisville has gotten back on track and won their last three. They are really playing some rugged defense, limiting opponents to just 37% shooting, one of the nati...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-16-2008
Rutgers is in for a long season. The Scarlet Knights have really struggled, but that struggle is compounded by playing good teams. They have faced Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, S. Florida, North...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-15-2008
Both of these teams lost to top-ranked North Carolina but the difference is stark. NC State lost by 31 points while the Tigers took the Tarheels to overtime, losing by just two points. Clemson's o...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-14-2008
The Citadel owns just five wins on the season, and when you consider four of those have been to teams outside Division-1, that leaves them with one win. This is a team that shoots poorly and doesn'...