Basketball Gambling Ncaa Pick - January 17, 2008

We went 5-5 last night for a loss, our fifth losing night out of the last 22. We stand at 65% (78-42) for +50.8 units over the past three weeks. With another very large board (40 games), we have a big card tonight.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Marquette at Louisville (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Louisville -3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

After an opening loss to Cincinnati, Louisville has gotten back on track and won their last three. They are really playing some rugged defense, limiting opponents to just 37% shooting, one of the nation's best. Marquette has put up some outstanding numbers, but they have declined with the onset of Big East play. They are a guard oriented team, and we like the balance and depth of Louisville with their sticky defense to cause some problems. The Cards got off to a tough start with lots of injuries, but have really amped it up with Big East play, something that is becoming their trademark. They are now 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 Big East games. Marquette has shown to be vulnerable on the road where they have covered just two of their last nine. Cards in this one.

Hofstra is last in the Colonial for a reason. They have only three wins and really just one quality player in Antoine Agudio. This team is scoring just 64 ppg and less of late. They are off a 49 point performance vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They started off the season with four games scoring 70+ but they have since not managed to reach 70 once in their last seven games. George Mason has a solid defense allowing 62.7 ppg on the seaosn and 58.4 per game in conference play thus far. They are off a big 28 point win and we like them to carry that momentum to another win here.

Tennessee (#6) is off to their best start in school history. They are getting outstanding guard play from JaJuan Smith and Chris Lofton. The Volunteers have won 24 straight games at home and you can bet that's on their mind here. Both teams score at a crazy rate but  this game is in Knoxville. At home the Vols are averaging 92 ppg while Vandy gets 82 on the road - a big difference. And, Tennessee has a huge defensive edge as well (63.4 per game allowed at home vs. 75.2 allowed by Vandy on the road). Too much for the Commodores to handle here as Tennessee gets another home win.

Georgia Southern has five losses on the season and three of them were to Rhode Island, Florida and Florida State. They have a very good PG in Dwayne Foreman, who has already logged over 100 assists and has a 2-to-1 turnover margin, an important element in playing on the road. Elon has been in trouble vs some very weak competition. They lost to Tusculum at home by 14 and barely beat Furman on the road by 2. This is one of just a few teams that couldn't beat The Citadel by double digits. They have consistently been out-shot, out-rebounded, and just make too many careless errors that adds up to 230 turnovers already. Their point guard is generating just three assists per game. Georgia Southern has the advantage in all areas of the court, and should come away with the road win here.

Samford has gone 6-0 UNDER on the road and 10-2 UNDER overall. Morehead State is 8-5 UNDER overall. So, we can see why this total is set low. But this is an overreaction - too low. Morehead is 2-1 OVER at home, where they actually score. They score 73.6 per game here vs. just 56.7 on the road. Their defense is average. Samford has very little offense and plays good defense. But, Moorehead is very good at home and they will find a way to score. The Eagles are 11-4 OVER in their last 15 following a win. The pendulum has swung and despite the stats, there is now value on the OVER here with these teams.

Two struggling teams collide here. Detroit won five of their first six games but have since lost ten straight. Loyola has lost six of their last seven. These teams are pretty evenly matched form a statistical standpoint so anything can happen. If there is one thing that Detroit does well, it's shoot from beyond the arc. They are hitting 39% on the year from three and that bodes well when facing a team that is susceptible to the long ball. Loyola is just 3-8 the past two seasons vs. teams that make 37%+ from beyond the arc. We like Detroit's chances here and at this line, we smell value.

Neither of these teams plays much defense, but we still like this game to go UNDER. SE Missouri State is 5-3 UNDER in conference games and Tennessee State has favored the UNDER both at home and overall in recent play. SEMS has scored under 70 six times this season including four performances in the 50s. Tennessee State has put up three sub-60 performances in teh past six games. The Redhawks are 5-2 UNDER in te last seven vs. Ohio Valley Conference teams while the Tigers are 19-7 UNDER in their last 26 games vs. teams with a record of .600 or better.

Louisiana Monroe has dropped five straight games and of their six wins, three came to opponents not even in D-1A. They have not seen the win column in D-1 since December 1st and that was vs a 3-13 Rice team. Even last year's team which won 17 games managed to put just 2 in the win column on the road. This has been the norm as they have just two road wins in each of the last three seasons. Arkansas Little Rock has been very tough at home, compiling an 8-1 mark, while not allowing any team to reach 70 points in the process. They don't even have a double-digit scorer, but they have tremendous depth, which will be a big factor at home tonight. The defense is allowing just 39% against them, and even tougher at home, and we see a convincing home win by the Trojans.

Tennessee Martin got a dose of reality last game losing a heartbreaker by one point to put a stop to their three-game winning streak. That loss put them at just 8-10 on the season. The reality is they aren't very good. Austin Peay on the other hand is good. They are 11-7 overall and a perfect 5-0 in conference play. Lester Hudson is one of the top scorers in the nation, averaging 27.1 ppg. He also gets 7.6 rpg and 4.0 apg and has notched 63 steals already. Flanking him are three other double-digit scorers. This team has only lost one game at home all season, where their defense really steps it up (63.4 ppg allowed). The Skyhawks are just 4-21 the past three seasons vs. winning teams and 2-10 vs. slow-down teams that average under 54 shots per game. The Governers won the first matchup on the road 90-85 and the Skyhawks are 0-8 the past two seasons revenging a same season loss. We look for Austin Peay to dominate and bring it defensively and win this game.

Oregon has gone UNDER in three of their last four games while Wshington has gone UNDER in ten straight games and 10 of 15 overall this season. Yet, this total is set very high. The Huskies are averaging just 62.6 ppg in their last five games and 52.7 per game in conference play. Their defense has been stout all season allowing 63.6 per game at home and 61.2 over their last five. Washington has gone UNDER six times in a row vs. teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Ducks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six as a road underdog.

Washington State finally lost. Their defense was exposed somewhat in that game as they gave up 74 points. Oregon State will surely have trouble scoring here as they average just 61.6 ppg. The funny thing is they are more proficient on the road than at home. They are giving up 70.7 ppg in conference play so Washington State should be able to score. And, the Cougars will be looking to take out their frustration on someone so expect them to run things up if they get the chance, which they should. This total is just set too low so we'll take the OVER.

Northern Colorado are off a stunnning road victory at San Diego State. They won the game outright as a 16.5 point underdog. That kind of win instills confidence. They now stay on the road to face an Eastern Washington team that returned just one starter from last season. The Eagles have lost four of their last five games and are averaging just 61.4 ppg on 39.7% shooting. We like the Bears' chances here for an upset.

Fresno State hasn't lost to San Jose State since 1999 (15-0). The Spartans' best scorer and best passer, Justin Graham, fractured his elbow last game and he will be missing this game. The best scorers left on this team each average just 10 ppg. So, this team that has struggled to beat their opponent, just lost 12 points and 3 assists. SJSU had averaged just 41.4% from the field, even before the departure of Graham. Fresno State is 23-4 on the road in their last 27 games vs. teams making under 42% of their shots. The Bulldogs have a distinct defensive advantage, too. Over the past three seasons, the Spartans are 7-23 vs. conference opponents and 3-10 at home to a money line of +135 to -155.

Results: 6-7

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: NCAA basketball sportsbook.
• Updated today: college basketball sports handicapping philosophy.
• View our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Don't forget to read our 2007 NCAA basketball preview here.
• View our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Updated today: 2007 college basketball pick results.
• Read our march madness bracket here.
• Take a look at our college basketball against-the-spread records here.
• View blog NCAA basketball here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Take a look at our college basketball prior picks here.
• Updated today: college basketball lines and odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-16-2008
Rutgers is in for a long season. The Scarlet Knights have really struggled, but that struggle is compounded by playing good teams. They have faced Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, S. Florida, North...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-15-2008
Both of these teams lost to top-ranked North Carolina but the difference is stark. NC State lost by 31 points while the Tigers took the Tarheels to overtime, losing by just two points. Clemson's o...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-14-2008
The Citadel owns just five wins on the season, and when you consider four of those have been to teams outside Division-1, that leaves them with one win. This is a team that shoots poorly and doesn'...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-13-2008
Niagara can score but Manhattan's defense is pretty good. Niagara chucks up 24 three-pointers per game, making 8 per game, which is where much of their scoring comes from. But, Manhattan is 10-1 U...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2008
St. John's has shown its inexperience all season, occasionally putting together good stretches in games, but not 40 minutes. And they make too many unforced errors. All signs of a typical inexperi...