College Basketball Free Picks - January 16, 2010

Over the last six weeks, we are hitting just under 60% at 101-69 for +95 units. Today we feature a huge day of 11 college hoops picks including two 5-unit picks and two 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	41-27 last 68 picks	60%	+$3270
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	101-69 last 170 picks	59%	+$9450
NHL	207-135 last 342 picks	61%	+$14860
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$47480

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Missouri at Oklahoma (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 153.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

I think the Sooners would sure like to see Blake Griffin on the court as they have missed him in a big way. Even without him, they are still always a tough out at home because they can really play some "D.” The Sooners run a half-court game while the Tigers are going to try and get out and run easier said than done here. The Sooners defense has been good, allowing just 61.2 points per game at home, and I don't see this one pushing into the 150s. The Tigers’ running game has been slowed vs. Big-12 opponents as they are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five. Bring the Sooners in as a dog and they really slow things down at 32-12-1 to the UNDER as a dog of up to 6.5. The value sits with the UNDER in this one.

One has to give a lot of credit to the Tennessee Volunteers. After dealing with team issues and suspensions, they went out and not only took on the No. 1 team in Kansas, but beat them rather soundly. They had the perfect opportunity for a letdown vs. Auburn in their next game, and won by 26 points, so this is a team stepping-up every time on the court. They face another big challenge at home vs. Ole Miss and a starting five that all averages in double-digits. The difference here is that Tennessee is playing superb right now, and have been deadly on this court at 9-0. The Rebels have had two big tests, one vs. Villanova and another vs. West Virginia, and came up empty losing by 10 and 8 points. I look for a similar verdict in this one. I'm going with Tennessee here.

When youre being hyped of two All-Americans on the same team and talent that goes 8-10 deep with a coach that likes to run, youre going to face a lot of inflated totals and I believe we have one here. The Jayhawks have been in this spot four times already this season, facing a total in the 150s, and have been able to deliver just one over, and this one is higher than them all. Last year they faced five all season in the 150s and could only push one over the total. The Jayhawks have now played to a 10-1 UNDER mark at home vs. a team with a losing record on the road, and are 21-6 to the UNDER following a straight-up win. I'm playing the UNDER in this one.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have not looked like an SEC team at all this season. They have lost at home to Morgan State, South Alabama and East Tennessee State by an average of 8.3 points per game OUCH! Not only that, but they needed overtime at home to get by Appalachian State. Alabama has five losses and they are to Cornell (who almost won at Fogg Allen vs. Kansas), Florida State, Purdue and Kansas State - all top teams. The bottom line is that Arkansas is severely down this season, while the Tide has taken care of business vs. all the teams they have an edge against. One more is added to that list today, Alabama gets the call.

Top teams always have a lot of interest in their games and the totals are most frequently padded with points in anticipation of the public's love for scoring teams and OVERs. North Carolina lost a lot of parts, and has a lot of talent on hand, but is very youthful and prone to lapses. While they were scoring big against some weak teams, they have scored 71 vs. Syracuse, 66 vs. Kentucky and 77 vs. Ohio State. Since ACC play has started, they average 71 in the two games. These numbers show the likelihood of the Heels topping off here in the 70s or less, leaving room for value on the UNDER. Tech has played six of their last seven vs. top teams, those that are .600+ to the under, and that is where the value is in this one, so I'll go UNDER here.

The Braves opened the season with hope and promise off a 5-2 start that included a big win vs. Illinois, but have really fallen back to the level most expected, becoming a mediocre team. They are just 2-7 in their last nine games, and are really struggling on the defensive end as they have allowed 80+ in four of their last five. One team that can take advantage of those defensive shortcomings is Missouri State. The Bears can score, and have already been over the 70- point mark 13 times this season. The Braves simply lack the firepower to stay with this club. The Braves are really struggling vs. winning teams as they are just a lowly 5-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record in their last 22. I'll go with Missouri State in this one.

Put these two teams in a moneyline parlay at even odds. After starting the season 13-2, Florida State has lost back-to-back games and another loss drops them out of the Top 25. Expect a top effort from them here. Tech is a very tough out at home but on the road they are vulnerable. They have lost to both Temple and North Carolina on the road, so when they face stiff competition, they haven't come through yet. The Seminoles have dropped just one game at home this year and it was last game so no let down here. Fullerton hosts Cal Northridge, a team that is 1-8 on the road this season, losing on average by 12 points per game. Fullerton meanwhile is a perfect 6-0 at home, winning by 20 points per game! Under Coach Bob Braswell, Northridge is just 31-78 as an underdog. Nuff said. Parlay these two together.

Its easy to look at the Florida Atlantic road mark of 2-7 and dismiss their chances here. But four of them came to BCS Conference schools and a fifth to Western Kentucky, so this is a much more competitive game than the number here. Middle Tennessee has a 6-2 home mark, backed by a weak schedule that includes two non-Div-1 programs, so they aren't as good as they look in this spot. The Owls have a pedigree in the Sun Belt showing a 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven and a road resume worth noting, showing them at 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a dog of 7-12.5. The Blue Raiders are taking a dive as chalk where they are 5-15 ATS in their last 20. Florida Atlantic gets the money in this one.

The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have really struggled this season. They have four wins, and two of those were against non-Div-1 programs, leaving them with just two wins vs. D-1 teams. This is a team that appears to be regressing as they have lost their last eight games, and the confidence level here has to be an issue. The Ragin Cajuns hit a bad spot and dropped five straight, but have righted the ship and are off of two straight wins now. The Trojans have been a pointspread disaster at 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 and don't have enough to pull this one off, even at home where they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as home chalk. LA Lafayette gets this one.

Not many thought that the Bulldogs had what it takes this season to go to St. Mary's and get the win, especially vs. a team that had that game marked all season. The Bulldogs took a lot of hits from graduation and departures a year ago, but this program has reached the "reload" status and they are improving every time out. The three losses are to Duke, Wake Forest, and Michigan State, so this is still a potent team. The Toreros surprised early with wins vs. Stanford, Oklahoma and Houston, but have really dropped off since, and a 16-point loss at San Francisco is really telling. The Bulldogs are pulling down the money vs. losing teams at 18-7-2 ATS and I'll go with Gonzaga in this one.

The Gaels have a very solid team with Omar Sanhan in the middle as a force, but they have to really be emotionally discharged after waiting all season for their game with Gonzaga at home, really believing they had finally assembled a team that would win the conference this season. They left it all on the court to a disappointing loss. It will be difficult to muster a lot of energy here, and that is dangerous vs. a 10-6 Portland team that lost by just three to Gonzaga, and won impressively at UCLA by 28! This game is about emotion, and I believe it will be hard for St. Mary's to get it all together after a tough emotional loss. Portland is a live dog here, so they get the call.

Results: 6-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated NCAA basketball predictions.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball record.
• Check out our updated march madness brackets.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• Read our NCAA basketball lines and odds here.
• Take a look at our blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• View college basketball sports book here.
• Read our NCAA basketball Game Analysis here.
• Here we show our march madness pick.
• View 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• Updated today: 2009 NCAA basketball season preview.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball against-the-spread records.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-15-2010
Marist is following in the footsteps of Iona as the Gaels won just two games back in ‘06-‘07, and the Red Foxes are heading in the same direction with just one in the win column so far on ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-14-2010
The Tribe is without reputation as they weren't expected to challenge in the CAA, but here they are at 12-3 and they are not pretenders. Just ask UConn who barely escaped the Tribe in Storrs, or D...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-13-2010
Rick Majerus continues to employ the slowdown tactics designed to keep his team in the game as he rebuilds the talent at St. Louis. That means that this is a hard team to stretch out the lead against....

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2010
I like Kansas State and Illinois to each win their games outright. Putting them together in a two-team moneyline parlay gets us reasonable odds. The No. 13 ranked Wildcats lost their first game in sev...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2010
This has already been a long year for the Marist Red Foxes as they have only been able to win a single game on the season and enter here at a depressing 1-14. What is even more eye-opening is the fact...