Nit Predictions - January 16, 2008

We are off of a 5-1 night, moving us to 73-37 (66%) with 17 of 21 winning nights in the last three weeks. $100 players are up $5,630 over that span. Tonight we have another big card with ten picks. When the totals come out later we may have a few of those to add...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Rutgers at Syracuse (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Syracuse -16 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

Rutgers is in for a long season. The Scarlet Knights have really struggled, but that struggle is compounded by playing good teams. They have faced Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, S. Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska and Florida so far this season. Those seven games have produced an 0-7 record with a losing margin of 19 ppg. That losing margin has been 21.5 ppg on the road. The Scarlet Knights are shooting bad on the season at 38.7%, but in these seven games just 35.2%, and just 25.2% from three. They have defended reasonably well at 41.1%, but vs these seven solid teams, just 45.5%, and 40% from three. To make matters worse, they are getting beaten on the boards by over 7 per game. Defensively they are forcing just 11 turnovers. Syracuse is off of two straight losses, and you can bet they will be ready to take out those frustrations on an ill-equipped opponent. The Cuse shoots over 50% and this spread could be covered by halftime.

UMass is 11-4 but they come in to face a better team in Dayton. This is the highest ranking for the Flyers (#14) in 40 years and they have won 13 games in a row. They are a perfect 10-0 at home and they own the best player in the Atlantic 10 in Brian Roberts. He's getting 20.1 ppg on 50% shooting while also dishing out 4.5 assists per game. The Minutemen can score with the best of them but their defense is atrocious. They are allowing 79 ppg on the season including 82.5 per game on the road. In contrast, Dayton allows just 63 ppg. That doesn't bode well for UMass as they are 1-10 the past three seasons on the road vs. teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game. This arena will be electric tonight and Dayton comes away with the W.

James Madison comes in here with some confidence. They are off a 93-74 win over UNCW - the first time they had beaten them in 15 tries. The win took them to 10-5 and they will come in here with no fear. ODU meanwhile is off a heart-breaking double OT loss to Delaware and we look for a hangover. ODU has just one double-digit scorer in Gerald Lee and he is getting just 12.9 ppg. This is a young, inexperienced team (just two returning starters) and it shows as they are extremely inconsistent. James Madison on the other hand is experienced and balanced. The Dukes are 5-1 the past three seasons off a double-digit win and we look for them to ride their momentum to another win here.

Back a team that is 1-6 on the road this season? Yes! What we really have here is a fade on UNC Wilmington, a team that has lost four of their last five games. Over that span, they are scoring 64 ppg and allowing 75.2. Over the same span, Towson is scoring 68.8 and allowing 74. The Tigers are playing better ball right now. UNC Wilmington is just 12-25 overall the past two seasons including 3-10 in January games. They are 5-12 following two straight conference games and 4-12 after having lost 3+ of their last four games. We'll fade them at this juicy line.

The top two teams in the Colonial clash here. But, they aren't close. Delaware has needed two straight OT wins to maintain a flawless conference record and stay above .500 overall. Two losses in those games and they would be 6-9 on the season! They are just 3-6 on the road and two straight OT games (the last double OT) takes its toll on young kids. On the road they are averaging 61.1 ppg and the team they face tonight gives up 59.3 ppg on the season. At home, they are 7-0, allowing 50.7 ppg! Think the Blue Hens are going to have trouble scoring tonight? Yeah, we do too. Delaware is just 5-25 vs. good teams (60%+ SU record) in their last 30. Delaware is a slow-down team, averaging just 52 shots per game. That plays right into the hands of the Rams who are 10-1 vs. teams averaging 53 or fewer shots over the past two seasons.

It's time to expose this Gators team in a big way. They have stepped on the opponents court just twice all season. They played a decent Ohio State team and lost by 13, and were held to 33% shooting. Mississippi showed they were a real team when they went on a neutral court and took down Clemson, and then went to Tennessee and lost a 2 point heart-breaker. They have taken some serious beatings from the Gators, not having won since 2001. They will be salivating for this game and we would not be surprised if they beat this Florida team by 15 or more. Florida has no experience on the road, and it showed at Ohio State. The Rebels are even better than Ohio State and will put a beating on the Gators.

MTSU has certainly struggled on the road. But, Troy has the kind of defense that we love to fade. They are allowing 45% shooting and 83.2 ppg. They allowed a 5-12 Florida Atlantic team to post 93 points against them on Saturday. The Trojans are also getting out-rebounded by 10.5 boards per game. Thye have just two returning starters from last year and lack leadership. MTSU's problem has been scoring but they will get their points tonight against this defense. The Blue Raiders' defense has been improving, allowing just 61.4 ppg in conference play. Troy is just 5-7 SU as a favorite the past two years which is just one of many reasons we see to fade them tonight.

This is not the same Bradley team we saw win 22 and 24 games in each of the last two seasons. They lost over half their scoring, and over two-thirds of their rebounding. To make matters worse, they have now lost Daniel Ruffin. Ruffin was their leading scorer and had accumulated more assists than any returning player in the country (475). The teams from the last two years never lost a home game by more than 11 points but this season, they have dropped two by more than that already. Drake still does not catch the odds-makers eyes, because they are the new kids on the block. All they have done is run off 13 straight, including four on the road. They are out-scoring teams by nearly 20 per game, and holding opponents to 39% shooting. A Bradley team that shoots just 43% is going to struggle, as Drake has allowed just just two of it's last 13 opponents to reach 60, while they have reached 60 in 12 of 13! Sooner or later they will catch up with Drake, but for now they haven't, and we will ride them here.

Houston came out of the gates winning eleven of their first twelve games with the only setback coming by one point to Virginia Commonwealth in the second game of the season. But they have lost their last two, both against tough opponents (UMass and Arizona). They will be focused here to avoid dropping three in a row (no looking past lowly SMU). Robert McKiver (20.4 ppg) and Dion Dowll (12.8 ppg) should shred the Mustangs' defense. SMU is just 5-17 vs. winning teams the past three seasons. That includes a 1-11 mark vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ ppg, as does Houston.

Northridge has won six in a row in this series and should easily make it seven tonight. The Matadors come in at 12-3 with a perfect conference record. They are scoring 80 ppg while allowing under 63 per game in conference play. UC Riverside is scoring just 56.4 ppg on the season and 51.7 in conference. They come off a 30-point loss here at home to Cal State Fullerton and they are just 2-15 the past three seasons following a conference game. Under head coach Jim Woolridge, the Highlanders are 1-8 after scoring 65 or fewer points four games in a row. CS Northridge in a romp.

Results: 5-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: college basketball sportsbook.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball gambling philosophy.
• Take a look at our ncaa final four here.
• Updated today: 2007 college basketball gambling preivew.
• Check out college basketball Game Analysis here.
• Check out 2007 college basketball picks results here.
• Here we show our march madness brackets.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball ATS standings.
• View our blog college basketball picks here.
• Check out our updated free NCAA basketball picks.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Updated today: college basketball odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-15-2008
Both of these teams lost to top-ranked North Carolina but the difference is stark. NC State lost by 31 points while the Tigers took the Tarheels to overtime, losing by just two points. Clemson's o...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-14-2008
The Citadel owns just five wins on the season, and when you consider four of those have been to teams outside Division-1, that leaves them with one win. This is a team that shoots poorly and doesn'...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-13-2008
Niagara can score but Manhattan's defense is pretty good. Niagara chucks up 24 three-pointers per game, making 8 per game, which is where much of their scoring comes from. But, Manhattan is 10-1 U...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2008
St. John's has shown its inexperience all season, occasionally putting together good stretches in games, but not 40 minutes. And they make too many unforced errors. All signs of a typical inexperi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2008
Niagara is coming off a 96 point performance while Siena is off a 52-point game. What gives here? We like this game to come in UNDER the lofty total. Niagara has the propensity to be an up-and-down te...