Ncaa Final Four Picks - January 14, 2009

We went 2-2 last night and stand at 15-8 (65%) for +20.7 units over the past week...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: George Washington at Duquense (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Duquense -10.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

Karl Hobbs had this George Washington team making some noise, but his recruitting efforts have not been up to the same standard and consequently this team has fallen off sharply. The six wins are against ultra soft programs, while they have suffered 10+ point defeats to everyone of their losses except two and those were inexcusable losses to Longwood and Coppin St. The Dukes program was in shambles, but has rebounded quickly and their high octane offense should be able to bury this GW team. The Dukes have fired off six straight wins scoring 86 a game and should be able to run the Colonels out of the gym here. Duquense gets the call.

NC Wilmington has had it's moments of glory in the Colonial Conference, but this year certainly isn't one of them. They are an inept offensive team and when totals reach the 150s it takes two teams producing points to push it over. Since conference play has begun and the face of the game changes, the Seahawks have responded by posting just 59.5ppg on the road. The Dukes are a more defensive team that has allowed 65 or less in 12 of their last 15, while their offense has topped the 76 mark in just three games on the season. Not sure where the points are coming from to topple this total and I'm backing the UNDER here.

The Scarlet Knights have just had no success playing in the Big East. That is particularly true when they take to the road where they are just 3-15 in the BIG EAST play over the last two years. Outside of Mike Rosario the Knights are just not getting any consistent scoring from anywhere. The Scarlet Knights have also followed a 10+ point loss at home by going 0-9 ATS. The Bearcats are not one of the top Big East teams, but they are vastly superior to this Rutgers team and I'll back them on the moneyline here.

Once the pointspread reaches the 20+ mark in a conference game you have to start looking toward the dog. As bad as Fordham has been this season, they still have only suffered two losses by 20 or more. The Flyers are an upstart team that is making noise in the A-10 and stand a perfect 10-0 at home, but went out and laid an egg against Umass in their last game on the road by 13. Dayton isn't exactly blowing teams out as they have just one win by 20 plus in their last 13 and their performance against the line in the A-10 isn't making anyone money as they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 within the conference. Too many points here and the Rams get the call.

It would be easy to see this Wake Forest team coming out flat to start this game tonight. They went to BYU where the Cougars virtually never lose and pulled out the win, then took down North Carolina at home. After two tough games this team might take some time to get into the flow here. The Eagles are not going to want to get into a track meet here and would expect this one to play in the low to mid 70s and with a total in the mid to upper 150s I see a lot of value playing this one under. Wake Forest has played to a 10-1 under mark in their last 11 as a road favorite and Boston College has played 5-0 under in their last five games posted as a dog. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.

Results: 4-1

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-13-2009
The Ball State Cardinals, once NCAAB Cinderellas, are having a difficult time getting the program back to that level. They have only managed home wins over Presbyterian, Eastern Illinois, and a Div-2 ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2009
The Louisville Cardinals struggled a bit in a couple of early games, but once the Big East season has gotten rolling, so have they. The Cards are always a tough team to beat at home where they are now...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2009
Two excellent defenses clash in this one and as a result, we see a low total. But the Wolverines can score and they will in this one. Michigan averages 76.2 points per game at home. They give up nearl...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-10-2009
UMass has been an offensive team in recent years, and the fact they don't have the same firepower this year, is exposing them defensively. The top 5 teams on their schedule have seen the opponent ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2009
The Saints have everyone back from a year ago, but unlike last year, they aren't sneaking up on anyone. Last season they stunned Stanford and beat a good Villanova team in the NCAA Tournament. The...