Final Four Bracket - January 14, 2008

Our onslaught of the books continues with a 5-2 +6.7 unit win Sunday. We have now hit 67% of our last 100 picks (67-33) generating +52.9 units ($5,290 for $100 players)! We look to notch our 17th winning day out of the last 20 today...

WUNDERDOG 2008 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	20-17 last 37 picks	54%	+$1310
CBB	66-33 last 99 picks	67%	+$5290
NBA	16-12 last 28 picks	57%	+$460
NHL	N/A	0%	($0)
TOTAL			+$7060

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Charleston at Citadel (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Citadel +14.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Citadel owns just five wins on the season, and when you consider four of those have been to teams outside Division-1, that leaves them with one win. This is a team that shoots poorly and doesn't get out and defend either. So why do we like them? It is about value, not winning or losing and getting major double-digits at home is always enticing. Last year’s team won just four D-1 games - two in OT. That team dropped just two conference games at home by 15+, and one of those was to Davidson who ran the table. Citadel has lost by more than 15 points at home in conference play just five times in the last three years. The combined record of those teams is 96-55, with only one of them having a losing record like Charleston. Their average home loss over this period is by 10.6 points per game. Their road mark stands at 22.2 ppg over the same period. Charleston has dropped four straight on the road, and is 3-7 SU out of their own gym on the season, so they certainly don't fit the profile of a team that comes in here and blows out The Citadel. Value lies with the home team.

The odds-makers know that Kansas is 16-0, as do all the bettors. They are going to make it difficult for anyone to consider Kansas at this point, knowing about the "feel good" of taking an undefeated team winning big almost everytime out. This is much the same as we saw in the NFL with New England this season. When the numbers went up, the value was lost, and suddenly the Pats couldn't cover a game. The Jayhawks are facing the same from books now. They have only lost three to the line all season, but all of them were in the 10-20 point range. Oklahoma is the value side here in this overpriced range. The Jayhawks have won every home game by more than this. But, the only team they have played with the talent of Oklahoma was Arizona and that was an OT win. Kansas is solid, but they have had just three tests, and all were close as they beat Zona by 4, Georgia Tech by 5, and USC by 4. It's hard to believe a competent Sooner team can't stay within this number.

LMU is coming off a game vs Gonzaga where they spent a lot of energy and emotion. They led midway through the first half, but an 11-0 Gonzaga run seemed to end the hope. They charged back once again, but Gonzaga closed the game with an 18-4 run to get the win. It was the seventh straight loss for LMU and the 10th in their last 11. They aren't just losing - they are getting blown-out. The average margin in these games has been over 20 points per game. They have no go-to scorer, are getting out-shot by 10% a game, and shoot miserably at the line at 62%. To make matters worse they are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, commiting 20 per game. Portland hasn't played well on the road at 2-7, but they certainly will sniff the opportunity for a road win vs a very bad LMU team. This game could stay close, but the big advantage here is four of five of Portland's top scorers connect on 81% or higher from the line. There are lots of ways they can win this game, and very few that they don't, so we will grab them on the moneyline

The Zags are off a 91 point performance. But, they shot 65.4% from the field in that one and don't expect that again. This team is capable of some stinkers, too as they have shot under 40% four times this season including. Perpperdine is also inconsistent. Sure, they put up 118 on Hope International earlier this month, but that was following a 53-point performance vs. Memphis. Gonzaga holds foes to 63.4 ppg so don't expect Pepperdine to have free reign tonight. The Waves in fact are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 home games vs. good teams at 60%+ SU.

This is the second time in ten days the teams have met. The first game resulted in 164 points but we expect a much lower score this time around as the defenses know what to expect. The Spartans average just 64.2 ppg on the road while both teams have decent defenses. Hawaii is 26-13 UNDER vs. winning teams over the past three seasons while San Jose State is 27-15 UNDER on the road over the past two seasons. That includes a 15-5 UNDER mark vs. conference opponnents. They are also 8-1 UNDER hte past two seasons revenging a loss in which they gave up 75+ points. Expect the defenses to make a statement here and this one to go UNDER.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our sports betting NCAA basketball.
• View our college basketball betting approach here.
• View ncaa bracket picks here.
• Hop over to our 2007 NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• View NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out our updated 2007 college basketball season picks.
• View ncaa bracket picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball ATS standings.
• View our updated blog NCAA basketball picks.
• Read our NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Check out our updated college basketball prior predictions.
• Read our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-13-2008
Niagara can score but Manhattan's defense is pretty good. Niagara chucks up 24 three-pointers per game, making 8 per game, which is where much of their scoring comes from. But, Manhattan is 10-1 U...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2008
St. John's has shown its inexperience all season, occasionally putting together good stretches in games, but not 40 minutes. And they make too many unforced errors. All signs of a typical inexperi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2008
Niagara is coming off a 96 point performance while Siena is off a 52-point game. What gives here? We like this game to come in UNDER the lofty total. Niagara has the propensity to be an up-and-down te...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-10-2008
Five of the six games these teams have played over the past three seasons have gone OVER but we like this one to buck that trend. Hofstra is horrendous on the road, especially offensively. They are 0-...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2008
Iowa is scoring just 58.5 ppg while turning the ball over 16.7 times per game. However, they have picked up their scoring since conference play began (63.5 per game) while falling down on the defensiv...