We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Cincinnati at S. Florida (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cincinnati +2

South Florida has now played in 19 Big East games and the win total stands at just one, including 0-3 this year. Cincinnati is coming off their worst performance of the season losing big at home to Rutgers. We just don't see the value in backing a favored team that has won just one conference game in over a year. Cincinnati already has wins vs Temple, Xavier, and NC State so there is no doubt which team has more talent. The bad loss to Rutgers has affected this line. Consider also that South Florida is 5-20 ATS over the past decade in close games (+3 to -3). We'll take the visitor here.

The Irish are a perfect 12-0 at home this season but a mediocre 4-3 ATS here. The fact that 5 of those games were not lined should tell you something about their competition thus far. While facing Lehigh, Winston Salem, Elon, Portland Army, Rider and Stony Brook sure helps the stats, it doesn't necesarily prepare you well for the rigors of conference play. In their three conference games, Notre Dame is averaging just 62 ppg and they are 1-2 ATS. Seton Hall is no world-beating team but this is too many points.