Ncaa Final Four Picks - January 13, 2010

We nailed our 5-unit Game of the Month last night as well as a 5-unit parlay, en route to a 3-2 overall finish. Over the last five weeks, we are hitting just under 60% at 94-65 for +86 units and on the season, our 5-unit CBB picks are 25-9 (74%).

Today we go with six premium picks including another 5-unit parlay as well as a play on the big ESPN matchup between North Carolina and Clemson.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	41-27 last 68 picks	60%	+$3270
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	94-65 last 159 picks	59%	+$8570
NHL	202-129 last 331 picks	61%	+$15200
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$46940

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: St. Louis at Duquesne (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Rick Majerus continues to employ the slowdown tactics designed to keep his team in the game as he rebuilds the talent at St. Louis. That means that this is a hard team to stretch out the lead against. They have faced some very good teams, but show the largest deficit in any loss at just 12 points. Last year they had success vs. this Duquesne team beating them at home then falling by just 2 on the road. Damien Saunders has been a beast for the Dukes averaging 14.4 points per game and 12.8 rebounds per game, but he could get bottled up in the zone employed by Majerus here. With none of the top three scorers producing better than 24% from deep, that zone could have him surrounded and tough for the Dukes to find consistent offense. I'll go with St. Louis in this one.

The Seahawks are improving off a seven-win season a year ago, but this team still has a long way to go to be a player again in the Colonial Conference. The Monarchs have played a very aggressive schedule, so coming in here at 12-5 is impressive with stops at Missouri, Mississippi State, Richmond, Dayton and Georgetown where they defeated the Hoyas. ODU has done it on defense as they have held opponents to just 56.5 points per game this season and have gone UNDER in eight of their 12 games. But, those stats are clouded by their home games in which they have played much better defense. On the road they have allowed 62.5 points per game and gone OVER three of seven games. NC Wilmington has trouble defending the good teams, and the result has been 7-1 to the OVER against the last eight winning teams they faced. The Monarchs’ last four have all been conference battles, with three producing OVERS.

Hats off to Wichita State who has played impressively to start the season and come into this one with a 15-2 record. It is a complete team effort as they are deep, have eight or nine capable of scoring, and everyone rebounds. Teams with that kind of versatility are tough to hold down offensively because they aren't dependent on a big game from a player or two. It is one reason why they have gone over the 70-point mark 11 times already this season, and 69 in two others. If they get to 70 here, which I expect, this one is going OVER. The last two seasons in games with the Shockers hitting 70 has shown 9-1 to the OVER. The last five times these teams have hooked up, every one has topped the total, and I like this one to do the same. OVER gets the nod in this one.

I really like these three teams to win their games outright and putting them into a three-team moneyline parlay nets us even odds. Xavier is undefeated at home on the season, winning by 22.5 points per game on average. Their opponent, Charlotte, simply won't be able to keep up with the high-flying Musketeers offense that is producing 87 points per game at home this season. Charlotte is forcing just 12 turnovers per game and Xavier is 29-2 straight-up in their last 31 games vs. teams that force under 15 turnovers per game. Clemson faces North Carolina, a team they lost to by 24 the last time they met about a year ago. It was the tenth straight loss for the Tigers in this series. This is their chance to get a win! The Tar Heels are ranked No. 12 in the nation, but they are 1-4 on the road this year, losing on average by 6 points per game! Meanwhile, the Tigers are 8-1 at home winning by 22 points per game. This is Clemson's chance and they grab it. Finally, New Mexico hosts Utah, a team that is barely over .500 and is under .500 on the road. The Lobos are 10-1 at home and should handle Utah with ease. Utah is just 12-19 on the road under Steve Alford including 4-7 after three straight wins. New Mexico is coming off back-to-back losses and they will be focused here. This team is 22-5 straight-up at home after two straight losses. Put these three teams in a moneyline parlay.

The Mustangs have six wins on the season, so let's review the cast they have displayed their edge on: Huston-Tillitson, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, Occidental, Army and North Carolina Central. You've got to be kidding me, and I'll bet most reading this have not heard of half of these programs, and most of them as it pertains to the world of college basketball. It isn't accidental that the Mustangs boast just one ATS win on the season, and it took them taking +16.5 points to do it. The reality is that this is a bad team that will be completely outclassed here by a Tulsa team that will be in the hunt come Tourney time. Tulsa stands at 20-7 ATS as a chalk from 7-12.5, while the Mustangs are just 2-6 ATS in the same range as a dog. The talent level much bigger than the number here, Tulsa gets the call.

If you’re going to get this North Carolina team, this will be the time. The Heels are very talented, but there is also a lot of youth here that needs time to gel, and there is a lot more coming in next year. Losses to Texas, Kentucky and Syracuse are certainly understandable, but going on the road and losing to Charleston just shows the inexperience this team has and difficulty closing on the road. Clemson certainly has the athletes and talent to win here. The Tigers wear the favorite hat very well at 6-0 ATS in their last six, which means that they are not only winning the games they should, but covering them too. This one could be close enough for Carolina to wiggle out a cover, but I don't see them with the ability to finish on the road yet and will go with a superb Clemson team here on the moneyline.

Results: 5-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our free NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball previous picks.
• Check out our updated ncaa bracket picks.
• Check out college basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball lines.
• Here we show our blog college basketball picks .
• Check out NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• Check out college basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• View march madness pick here.
• View our 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks season results here.
• View 2009 college basketball betting preivew here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball ATS records .

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-12-2010
I like Kansas State and Illinois to each win their games outright. Putting them together in a two-team moneyline parlay gets us reasonable odds. The No. 13 ranked Wildcats lost their first game in sev...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2010
This has already been a long year for the Marist Red Foxes as they have only been able to win a single game on the season and enter here at a depressing 1-14. What is even more eye-opening is the fact...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-10-2010
Evansville has dropped all four games since MVC play began, and five in a row overall. When facing decent competition this year, they are 0-8. Their four wins this year have come against Tennessee Tec...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2010
One of the toughest places to play in college basketball is at Vanderbilt. That certainly has been a weapon for the Commodores this season as they stand in with an unblemished nark of 8-0. The Gators ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-08-2010
Fairfield has gotten off on the fast track at 10-4, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home. Unfortunately for the Stags there is not a quality win in the stack of 10. This one looks to be an overlay her...