Ncaa Tournament Picks - January 12, 2008

We went 2-1 last night for our 14th winning day out of the last 17. We sit at 52-26 (67%) for +38.1 units over the past three weeks.

A reminder on the moneyline plays. These are no more "risk" than any other play. You don't "risk" more on these than any other play. If they are favorites, you will win less than a flat -110 bet when they win. But, they will win at a much higher rate. You never play to win your normal unit-amount on these. You always risk your normal unit amount. This is very important.

Today's card is packed as you know. We like a lot of games and due to being hot, we don't feel right sitting on any of our top plays today to try to stay to a small # of games. So, we are releasing a large card today. You can either play all at normal levels, or take your unit size down. It's up to you...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Depaul at St. Johns (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Depaul (+155) (risk 4 to win 6.2)

St. John's has shown its inexperience all season, occasionally putting together good stretches in games, but not 40 minutes. And they make too many unforced errors. All signs of a typical inexperienced team, that has eight new faces on the roster. DePaul is coming off of Georgetown which is just way out of class for them at this stage. It presents some value here, because it will be a different game. St. John's has made 70 more turnovers, than they have been credited with assists, while DePaul has done much better protecting the ball and completing scoring opportunities. That will be the difference here, and DePaul comes away with the precious road win.

Seton Hall scores and plays no defense at home. Their home games average 175.7 total points per game. On the road their games average 142.5 - a full 33 points less! They are 5-0 OVER at home but 5-1 UNDER on the road. Pittsburgh scores like crazy here, but they play awesome defense, too, allowing opponents just 62.3 ppg on the season and 57.7 per game at home. Seton Hall puts up 22 three point attempts per game but the Panthers are 11-3 UNDER the past three seasons vs. teams that attempt 21+ three-pointers per game.

The Hoyas are a flawless team in terms of what they face from UConn in this contest. They shoot over 50%, have the size inside which is actually better and more experienced than UConn, and have shooters all over the floor. UConn is really not a three-point shooting team and with Adrien and Thabeet bottled up inside, it will force them to make shots on the perimeter against good defending guards. UConn is 1-11 the past two seasons vs. good shooting teams (those hitting 45%+). They are also 2-13 over that span vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game. The Huskies were down 21 to Notre Dame in the first half before they were let back in the game, and we look for them to be in a similar situation here. But they aren't getting back in.

Wilmington's defense is not very good but right now, neither is their offense. They have scored just 63.4 ppg over their last five games. Against a decent James Madison defense, this game is asking for a ton of points from Madison. But, after coming out of the gates blazing, the Madison offense has struggled. They are averaging just 65 ppg over their last five games and 64 ppg vs. conference foes. They have especially struggled in the rebounds and this team is 11-1 UNDER the past three seasons after two straight games with single-digit offensive boards. This line is not reflecting accurately the current play of James Madison and we think it's too high.

We see a lot of similarities to what Notre Dame did last year, to what they are doing this year. Irish opened 13-1 last season, but none of those games were on anyone else's court. They paid dearly, as they dropped their first two on the road in the Big East by double-digits on their way to a 1-5 SU road start in conference play. The Irish come out of the gate 12-2 this year, but still have yet to make an appearance on someone else's court, while running home streak to 30. The problem for the Irish is they are just 8-16 SU on the road in their last 24 in conference road tilts. Marquette has all the weapons to defend the Irish three-point barrage with quick, sticky defensive guards. Marquette can score and defend, and the Irish are in for a wake-up call on the road.  We see Marquette coming away with a convincing home win as they have a pretty good home court as well, going 37-5 SU last 42.

Tennessee State started off 5-2 to the OVER but they have since gone 4-1 UNDER as their scoring has falllen off by about 10 ppg while their defense has improved by over 10 ppg. Their first ten games saw an average total score of 160.5 but over their last five, the average has dropped 28 points to 132 per game. Jacksonville State is similar as their offense has dropped while their defense has improved. During their most recent 5-game stretch they have also scored significantly less and allowed significantly less. They are 3-1 UNDER in their last five after starting 3-1 OVER. We like this one to come in UNDER this line which we fell is off.

The Rebs are playing amazing defense while Air Force's is even better. We can see why this line is set so low. But, Air Force can score at home (66 per game) while UNLV can score on the road (68.5). Over their last five games, both teams have been improving offensively. We expect the Rebels to score quite a bit here and Air Force to find success as they usually do here at home. We like the OVER.

We like this Kansas State team in this spot. Kansas State has had its problems with high flying offensive teams, as indicated by losses to Xavier, Notre Dame and Oregon. All those teams put up 80+ per game, and have big-time scorers. Oklahoma can defend but Kansas State is right on that same level, especially against a half-court offensive team like Oklahoma. The Wildcats are tenacious on the boards with a +10.1 rebound margin, and could steal some easy ones inside. Neither of these teams are hitting over 68% from the line, however, the Wildcat's top five scorers are all over 71%, which could be worth a couple more here. Oklahoma may not have full focus for this one, as they have a monster game vs Kansas on Monday and they could get caught sleeping here. The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs Big 12 foes and Kansas State brings enough to this one to at the very least stay close, and has a chance to spring the upset.

The Bearcats have now covered seven of eight and their value curve certainly is heading down. Keep in mind this team is still 7-8, young, and will have trouble maintaining against poised and competent Nova team. They shoot just 41.7% on the season and are very capable of going into offensive droughts. Nova is getting offense from seven players and Reynolds and Fisher have dished out 100 assists between them. The Cats protect the ball, commiting just 12.5 turnovers a game. The Bearcats can get stagnent at times, turning the ball over more than they assist on made hoops, and vs a team with a pair of strong guards the honeymoon ends here.

Will #19 Clemson lose three in a row? No way. This team will be laser focused and playing their hearts out. Florida State is playing very well which provides even more incentive for the Tigers. Teams that are winning and instilled as big dogs perform extremely poorly on the moneyline. Clemson nails 38.2% from beyond the arc and the Seminoles are just 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams hitting 37% or  better. Over the past two seasons, Florida State is 1-8 vs. teams that score 77+ ppg. Clemson to win this one.

The odds-makers have yet to catch up with the Bulldogs who now stand at 13-1, and 9-1 ATS. They continue to be under-valued because they are not Creighton or S. Illinois. But the reality is they are much like those teams have been in the past. The Bulldogs allow just 39% shooting, and have a their top three scorers in Young, Houston and Cox connecting from long distance. These three are 86-187, good for 46% from beyond the arc. The Bears have just converted 1 of 7 on the road, where they have struggled all season. One of the problems the Bears have faced is turning the ball over 16 times per game, and on the road vs a very strong Bulldog team that spells trouble. Sooner or later the books will catch up with Drake, but they haven't yet.

While these teams have identical records, they are not the same. Austin Peay has four players averaging double-digit scoring. They are 5-1 at home, keeping foes to just 60 ppg here. SE Missouri State allows a ridiculous 80.6 ppg on the road. And, their offense is off a game in which they hit 25% from the field for the entire game (no typo there). Austin Peay has won 23 of their last 30 games vs. teams allowing 77+ ppg. The Governors rule here.

#3 Kansas heads to Nebraska for their Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks remain one of five unbeaten teams in what has become their best season in a decade. They have won their last four games by 24+ points each. Yeah, this team is good. They play defense consistently, allowing 58 ppg overall and on the road. Nebraska is tough and also boasts a great defense. But, this Jayhawks team will be too much for them tonight. Kanas rocks against great teams! Big moneyline favorites with four returning starters from last season, coming off a blowout win, have won at a 96% clip the past five seasons. The Jayhawks are 20-3 vs. winning teams the past two seasons including 16-1 vs. great defenses (those keeping opponents to 42% or worse from the field). Meanwhile, Nebraska is 2-12 vs. such teams. Kansas to keep it rolling.

Perpperdine games average over 160 ppg so we can understand this line being set here at 154. But, Pepperdine has done this very inconsistently. For example, they scored 118 in their last game vs. Hope International University (who?). The game directly prior to that they put up 53 points at Memphis. They have in fact scored less than 70 six times this season. Despite their high scoring, they are 3-1 UNDER in their last four lined games. Portland is not horrible and should be able to keep the Pepperdine offense relatively in check, enough for this game to go UNDER.

Results: 9-5

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-11-2008
Niagara is coming off a 96 point performance while Siena is off a 52-point game. What gives here? We like this game to come in UNDER the lofty total. Niagara has the propensity to be an up-and-down te...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-10-2008
Five of the six games these teams have played over the past three seasons have gone OVER but we like this one to buck that trend. Hofstra is horrendous on the road, especially offensively. They are 0-...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2008
Iowa is scoring just 58.5 ppg while turning the ball over 16.7 times per game. However, they have picked up their scoring since conference play began (63.5 per game) while falling down on the defensiv...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-08-2008
The Stags have just not gotten anything going on offense, as they shoot just over 40% on the season. That makes it tough to stay in games, especially when the defense allows 47% shooting and 38% from&...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-07-2008
Tennessee Martin is averaging just 41.8% from the field overall and 37.8% on the road. That kind of shooting can make for an off night and with a total this high, we'll look to the UNDER. The Skyh...