March Madness Pick - January 10, 2010

We hit two 5-unit college hoops plays last night as we posted our fourth winning night in a row. Last night's performance boosted us to 84-63 for +52 units over the last five weeks. Our 5-unit college hoops picks are now 22-9 (71%) on the season. Today we go with six plays including another 5-unit pick as well as a 5-unit parlay.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	41-24 last 65 picks	63%	+$4170
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	84-63 last 147 picks	57%	+$5210
NHL	199-126 last 325 picks	61%	+$15610
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$44890

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Evansville at Indiana State (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indiana State -9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Evansville has dropped all four games since MVC play began, and five in a row overall. When facing decent competition this year, they are 0-8. Their four wins this year have come against Tennessee Tech, Alabama State, Georgia Southern and Tennessee Martin. In MVC play they have been outscored by an average margin of 58-73. Indiana State has fared much better. These teams have both played Creighton and Western Kentucky. Evansville lost to both of teams by scores of 64-72 and 57-63. Indiana State beat both by scores of 70-64 and 64-63. The Purple Aces are 1-4 on the road this season, losing by double-digits on average while the Sycamores are 5-1 at home winning by 9 points per game. I like the home team to roll here.

I like these three teams to win their games outright today. Parlaying them together on the moneyline pays out at +135 odds. Indiana State is 5-1 at home and gets an Evansville team that is just 1-4 on the road. Under head coach Marty Simmons, Evansville is just 5-30 straight-up as an underdog. Arizona State faces Washington State. ASU is 10-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game (yes you read that right). 'Nuff said. Finally, Maryland plays the No. 18 ranked Florida State Seminoles. Florida State has been unstoppable at home but on the road they look human, having lost two games already and scoring just 63 points per game. They will run into a motivated team that can outscore them here. Put these three in a moneyline parlay.

The Wolverines have won a couple of games in a row, but I am not yet buying that this team has a whole lot to offer. They boast eight wins on the season but four of those came in unlined games against Northern Michigan, Houston Baptist, Arkansas Pine Bluff and Coppin State. So throw those out. Two others came against Creighton and Detroit. Their only two quality wins on the season came vs. Ohio State and Penn State, so they have much more to prove to me. Northwestern is 11-3 on the year. They have also had some easy games, but they have also shown moxie in games they weren't supposed to win. They beat Notre Dame, Iowa State, North Carolina State and Illinois straight up as an underdog in each game. They could win this one too. At the very least they should keep it close. I like this game to go OVER too. What we have here appears to be two great defensive teams with Northwestern holding opponents to 62.3 per game and Michigan holding foes to 63.3 per game (56.3 per game at home). But, these stats are padded thanks to a bunch of cupcake opponents in the early going. The Wildcats have held seven opponents under 60 points, but those opponents included Liberty, Northern Florida, Central Connecticut State and Texas Pan American. Michigan has kept five opponents to fewer than 60 but again, look who it was: N. Michigan, Houston Baptist, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Coppin State. Against the likes of Alabama, Creighton, Kansas, Marquette, Utah and Indiana, the Wolverines allowed 73 points per game. In conference games the past two seasons, the Wildcats are 15-6 OVER. They are also 10-2 OVER after scoring 60 or fewer points in their previous game over that same time span. I like this one to be a high-scoring affair with Northwestern giving Michigan all they can handle.

I think Northwestern has a decent shot at pulling the upset here. The Wildcats are 11-3 on the season including 3-1 on the road. Michigan's record looks good at home at 6-1 but look who they have beaten here: N. Michigan, Houston Baptist, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Detroit and Coppin State. Those six wins mean nothing. The only two real tests they had here were vs. Boston College and Ohio State. The Wolverines were favored in both. They beat the Buckeyes but lost outright to BC. So, a 6-1 record all of a sudden looks much less impressive at 1-1 vs. decent teams. And, Michigan is also 2-5 on the road. So they still have a lot to prove. Meanwhile, Northwestern has proven themselves having already beating the following teams in upsets: Notre Dame, Iowa State, NC State and Illinois. There's no reason they can't win this game. Michigan is just 10-18 the past three seasons coming off a win and 12-13 as a favorite under head coach John Beilein.

This game will be on CBS and should be a fun one to watch. In 27 games, these teams have a combined two losses. Kansas is scoring 86 points per game and Tennessee, 82 per game. How could this not go OVER? That's the point. The public is betting this up. Let's not forget that the Vols are without four key players here who together have combined for over 32 points per game of offense! Kansas' high-flying offense hasn't looked as high flying on the road where they average 76 points per game. Their defense however has remained stellar on the road, giving up just 58.2 points per game this season! Tennessee can play defense too, allowing 63.6 per game. When facing a top-level team (.800 or better), the Jayhawks have gone UNDER to the tune of 34-16 over their last fifty such games. When facing an up-tempo team on the road (a team that averages 62+ shots per game), Kansas is 16-6 UNDER in their last 22 such games. In their last 22 road games with a total set in the 150s, Kansas is 18-4 to the UNDER! I like this one to stay under the lofty figure.

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View free NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out NCAA basketball picks here.
• Check out our updated march madness bracket.
• Hop over to our college basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Read our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball picks blog.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• View NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa march madness pick .
• Here we show our 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NCAA basketball preview here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2010
One of the toughest places to play in college basketball is at Vanderbilt. That certainly has been a weapon for the Commodores this season as they stand in with an unblemished nark of 8-0. The Gators ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-08-2010
Fairfield has gotten off on the fast track at 10-4, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home. Unfortunately for the Stags there is not a quality win in the stack of 10. This one looks to be an overlay her...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-07-2010
The upstart Jags come in at 11-4 overall and are on a three-game toot, culminating with an overtime win over Florida International. Their record is a product of a soft schedule, and they have severely...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-06-2010
This isn't one of coach Phil Martelli's vintage St. Joe's teams and they have to be feeling their oats dropping one at home to Princeton. I think they got caught looking ahead as these sch...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-05-2010
The Purdue Boilermakers remain one of five teams still unbeaten and have a Final Four look as long as they keep Robbie Hummel healthy. The Golden Gophers are no lay down team as this is a team that ca...