College Tournament Basketball Picks - January 10, 2009

We posted another college hoops winner as we hit with our lone pick last night on Rider getting the cover, scooping up another +2.7 units. Last night's win has boosted our four-day run to 70% (7-3), good for +11.8 units. Today we feature a full card including a 5-unit play.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Dayton at U Mass (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 129 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

UMass has been an offensive team in recent years, and the fact they don't have the same firepower this year, is exposing them defensively. The top 5 teams on their schedule have seen the opponent score the following points. Memphis (80), S. Illinois (80), Boston College (85), Kansas (60), Houston (80), and throw in Vanderbilt at 78. That is about 80 points a game vs the good teams on their schedule. I'd have to think Dayton at 14-1 qualifies as a good team. The Flyers add to the liklihood of an over, as they have played 19-7 to the over after a SU win, and I'll follow the trends and play over in this one.

The Michigan State Spartans have had no success in the ACC, but have run the table on everyone else. Their margins in three Big-10 games have been eight, 10, and 11 points. They will face a Kansas team that is maturing and can matchup with them athletically. The Jayhawks have had one big loss where they were simply a no-show at Arizona, but the other two losses were by one point and in OT, so they have hung around just about every game. This is a good shooting team with four of their top eight scorers shooting over 50%, and they have been sticky defensively, gathering 8.5 steals a game. The Spartans’ offense has been reliant on the three-ball which is dangerous against a team that can step out and defend the perimeter. Kansas is capable of beating anyone. I like them to stick around inside the number here and will back them on the road.

Both of these teams have struggled in Big East play this season. That will likely continue as the talent-rich Big East has not found itself suiting up in this game. The Blue Demons have already dropped their first three Big East tilts by double-digits. Their biggest problem is putting the ball in the basket. Dar Tucker leads them in scoring, but at 19.5 points per game, he is shooting at just 41% and 31% from beyond the arc. Four of the next top five scorers are even worse at 38% or less from the floor. The three-point threat from this team is virtually non-existent as after Tucker's poor 31%, not a single Blue Demon player is over 29% - most far below that. That makes it tough to be laying medium numbers. South Florida will keep this one close because they don't have a lot of empty trips due to careless play. The Bulls turn the ball over just 12 times a game and with the Blue Demons launching bricks that will be a key factor here. I'll ride with the Bulls plus the points on the road.

We have a natural rivalry in the ACC between Virginia and Virginia Tech, as the Cavaliers make the short trip from Charlottesville to Blacksburg. Tech has had its moments on the court this season, but has yet to take down a quality opponent and is building the win column with lots of cupcakes. I'd have to say their biggest win on the season so far has been against St. John's who will be at or near the bottom of the Big East. What might be more telling are their narrow wins over Gardner Webb by three points and Mount Saint Mary's by five - both on their home court. The Cavs have taken a similar ride, except they just beat Georgia Tech and have put away teams they should beat by big margins, which hasn't been the case for the Hokies. I have to think that the Cavs can hang close or spring the upset here, so I'll grab the points.

Texas has been one of the top programs in the country in recent years, but I'm not convinced this team is quite on the same level as the last few. The first indication might be from home wins vs Texas Southern, and Texas St. that averaged just 12 points, and neither would of covered what the odds-makers are asking of them vs Iowa St. The Cyclones are an improved team over a year ago, and have not gone down by this many yet this season. A worse Cyclone team vs a better Texas team, ended in OT last year, and I'm not sure that Texas deserves this huge chalk line put out on them here. Cyclones 9-4-1 ATS vs big numbers of 13+ and I'll back them in this one, which looks inflated to me.

The Hornets have not found the win column on the road all season at 0-9, and in fact haven't found it in 33 straight games. That tends to inflte the price, and we aren't asking them to win. The proof is in the fact that despite being 0-33 in their last 33 road games, in their last 11 as a 17 point or higher underdog they are 8-3 ATS. The Grizzlies haven't exactly been blowing anyone out and certainly aren't a team built for toppling big pointspreads. The proof is in their 1-8 ATS mark in their last 9 as a 10+ chalk. This one is heavily inflated, and I'll back Sacramento St. to get the cover here.

The Texas A&M program has certainly taken a leap forward over the last few years as they have gone from a team starved to win even a game in the Big-12, to a contender. The Cowboys have long been a top program and after a rebuilding campaign a year ago, they are once again poised to make a run at the top. The Cowboys are 8-0 at home, which becomes a very difficult place to play when they have their good teams. The Aggies have always struggled on the road and lost four on the Big-12 highway last year - all to the top teams. The Cowboys sport a 19-7-1 ATS record at home when listed as a favorite of 6.5 or less and are 7-1-1 in their last nine, and I like them to get it done at home and cover the number in this one.

Results: 5-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated 2008 NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball sportsbook.
• Take a look at our 2008 NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• View our updated betting NCAA basketball.
• Hop over to our college basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out our updated college basketball picks blog.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball pick.
• View NCAA basketball odds and lines here.
• Read our ncaa tournament picks here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball against-the-spread records.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness pick.
• Check out NCAA basketball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-09-2009
The Saints have everyone back from a year ago, but unlike last year, they aren't sneaking up on anyone. Last season they stunned Stanford and beat a good Villanova team in the NCAA Tournament. The...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-08-2009
The Samford Bulldogs got over their humiliation when they scored just 22 points on the road against Ohio State. They return home where they have yet to taste defeat. The Paladins are not only winless ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-07-2009
James Madison is a much improved team from a year ago and after a big opening night loss to Davidson the Dukes have only sustained one loss by greater than 10 points and usually play tough and hang ar...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-06-2009
The Tigers are out of the gate at 12-1, but have feasted on home cooking. They have stepped off of their home court just once, dropping a 72-61 decision to A&M, and that was a neutral-site game. T...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-05-2009
The Hilltoppers have lost 35 points per game scoring from their backcourt, but have come up strong with big 14 point win over Louisville. They also handled a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that w...