College Basketball Ncaa Tournament Predictions - January 08, 2009

We are coming off a 2-1 night last night as we nailed our 4-unit pick on James Madison as a +9.5 point dog. We are hitting 75% over the last two days and roll out five plays today including a 5-unit pick.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Furman at Samford (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Samford -8.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Samford Bulldogs got over their humiliation when they scored just 22 points on the road against Ohio State. They return home where they have yet to taste defeat. The Paladins are not only winless on the road this season at 0-6 they are winless period against Div-1 teams falling by an average of 15.3 points per game, which expands to 18.5 ppg on the road. There just isn't much going right for this team and that extends itself on offense, defense, and the boards where they have been out-played in all areas. The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely off big losses as they are 8-0 ATS after a loss by 20 or more, and they will take out those frustrations at home tonight against the Paladins and get the call here.

The Mocs have not displayed much this season as two of their four wins have come over teams below the ranks of Div-1, and a third a squeaker against Mississippi Valley State that they won by just four points. Their biggest problem has been lost possessions as they are committing close to 20 turnovers a game and as a team, have just 187 to 243 turnovers. Wofford has the same four wins, but losses have been to Georgia on the road by just one point in OT, undefeated Clemson, a one-loss Dayton team by just three and South Carolina, so they are certainly better than their record would indicate. Despite the much stronger competition, they are averaging five turnovers a game less than the Mocs. That should be a huge factor here and keep them at least close, so I'll take Wofford and the points here.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are certainly not a team that likes to get up-and-down the court, but at the same time the odds-makers have projected them to be a team more capable of playing in the 50s, which is not the case. The Hawkeyes have produced 65 or more points in 11 of their 15 games. Consequently, in their last five posted at a total equal to or below this one, four of the five have gone OVER. The Gophers have played 14 games, and they have produced 65 or more points in 12 of them. That makes these teams combined putting up 65+ in 23 of 29 games, which projects more like a total in the 130s. The Gophers are also 4-1 to the OVER in their games against teams with a winning record, while Iowa has played OVER in five of their last seven Big Ten games. This one is set too low, so I'm playing this one to go OVER the total here.

The Blue Raiders have put together five-straight wins off a slow start and are off a big win on the road against a tough South Alabama team. It would be easy to see them come out flat against a Florida Atlantic team that is 0-9 on the road this season. The resume looks horrible when you look at the record, but it shines in the area that matters the most - against the pointspread. The Owls have not found the win column, but when posted as a double-digit dog, they have collected the money in four of the five games and overall, they are 9-4 ATS after a loss. When coming off a big win, the Blue Raiders could waltz through this game and open the door for a Florida Atlantic cover, and I'll back the Owls here.

The Eastern Washington Eagles may have an overall winning record at 8-7, but their play has not been cashing many winners ATS where they are just 1-6 in their last seven on the board. The Vandals have not broken through on the road yet, but have been against a lot of top teams - playing four against BCS conference teams. The other included just a five-point loss to Nevada and two other games that were decided in OT, to teams better than the Eagles. The Eagles have bounced back after losing to top teams as they are 5-1 ATS after a 20-point loss. The Eagles aren't flying so high off a win where they are now 0-4 ATS in their last four. The Vandals have a great shot to grab their first road win here and they get the nod.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our 2008 college basketball preivew.
• Check out our updated college basketball sports book.
• Take a look at our 2008 NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• View our updated college basketball betting approach.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball Game Preview.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball picks blog here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball pick.
• View NCAA basketball lines and odds here.
• Hop over to our march madness brackets here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball ATS records.
• Take a look at our march madness pick here.
• View our college basketball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-07-2009
James Madison is a much improved team from a year ago and after a big opening night loss to Davidson the Dukes have only sustained one loss by greater than 10 points and usually play tough and hang ar...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-06-2009
The Tigers are out of the gate at 12-1, but have feasted on home cooking. They have stepped off of their home court just once, dropping a 72-61 decision to A&M, and that was a neutral-site game. T...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-05-2009
The Hilltoppers have lost 35 points per game scoring from their backcourt, but have come up strong with big 14 point win over Louisville. They also handled a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that w...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-04-2009
Kentucky is 11-3 and have won six straight and 11 of 12. And they are facing a team that has lost two of their last three. Yet the Wildcatsare given little chance in this one. I beg to differ and I th...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-03-2009
Not to long ago, the St. John's program was one of the top programs in the country. It has since fallen and may never get up. The Johnnies continue to struggle and are now facing bad breaks to go ...