Final Four Odd - January 08, 2008

We went 1-0 last night and sit at 36-17 (68%) over the past two and a half weeks, good for +33.5 units. We have seven CBB plays tonight as well as three NBA and five NHL.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	18-13 last 31 picks	58%	+$2150
CBB	36-17 last 53 picks	68%	+$3350
NBA	10-4 last 14 picks	71%	+$1430
NHL	13-11 last 24 picks	54%	+$430
TOTAL			+$7360

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Fairfield at Siena (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Siena -9.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Stags have just not gotten anything going on offense, as they shoot just over 40% on the season. That makes it tough to stay in games, especially when the defense allows 47% shooting and 38% from thre as well. The Stags have just one reliable player in Jonathon Han, who is the only one averaging double-digits on the season. The Saints have proven worthy by beating Stanford at home, and hanging tough with Syracuse on the road. They connect on over 40% from beyond the arc. This is a team that is better at virtually every position than the Stags, and have several bonafide scorers. The Stags will have trouble with the Saints because they simply can't score enough, and go through too many droughts offensively.We look for the Saints to come away with a clean double-digit win.

The No. 11 ranked Hoosiers are looking to extend their winning streak to nine games. Frosh phenom Eric Gordon is the first player in Indiana history to start his career with seven straight games scoring 20+ points. He's averaging 23.5 per game and leading the Big Ten. Over their last five games, Indiana has won by an average score of 83.8 to 56.8. John Beilein has had a rough go of it in his first year as Michigan is just 4-10, having lost eight of their last ten games. They are scoring just 56 ppg in conference games. Over the past two seasons the Wolverines are now 1-11 against teams with a win percentage of 80% or higher. We like Indiana quite a bit to get the win here.

We think the odds-makers are playing on this UCONN team off of the illusion of public perception, and a couple National Championships. This recruiting class was supposed to be the next wave, but has frustrated Coach Calhoun in many ways. This group is 7-22 ATS last 29, so certainly the "overrated" label  is not out of the question. The Huskies have allowed opposing players to reach career highs in points scored in each of the last three games. There is no stopper on the floor, and although they provide balance with five double-digit scorers, they are missing the scorer that can take over a game (which they have had in the past). The #6 rating in FG percentage allowed is a bit misleading because they block a lot of shots, but the open looks abound against this defense, and they just have not provided the 40 minute consistency to justify a double-digit spread. St. John's is playing hard, especially on the defensive end where it matters the most on the road, allowing just 40%. The Johnies have stayed to within single digits in all but one game, and that was at 13-1 Miami. They have a similar problem as Connecticut as they get double-digit scoring from five players, but have no real knockout scorer. There is enough talent and commitment here to keep this one close, as the Huskies keep proving that the odds-makers have them confused with their teams of the past.

Two solid MVC teams clash here. They own the two best defenses in the league with N. Iowa allowing 56.4 ppg and Illinois State allowing 57.4 per game. The total is set low as a result. While the UNDER appears the obvious choice, we like the other side. N. Iowa is 5-2 UNDER at home but just 2-2 OVER-UNDER on the road. Illinois State is 5-2 UNDER on the road but just 3-2 UNDER at home, where they are undefeated. When these teams met 11 months ago, 137 points were scored in what was also supposed to be a low-scoring game. Illinois State hits 39.4% from beyond the arc (43.1% at home) and they have put up scores of 81, 80 and 73 this season, so they can score. They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven home games after going UNDER the total in two consecutive games. We like the contrarian play on the OVER here.

Yes, a very large line. But, still excellent value. The #6 Spartans have won ten in a row and sit a 13-1. They are led by sophomore Raymar Morgan who has scored in double-digits in eighteen straight games dating back to last season. Purdue has played solid at home but on the road they are just 2-3. The Michigan State offense will be way too much for them to handle. The Spartans are beating opponents here at home by an average margin of 21.5 ppg. Look for them to have no trouble here.

Florida rolls into Alabama with a 13-2 record. They have been rolling offensively, putting up over 80 points per game. But, they have really only had one true road game. That was vs. Ohio State and they scored 49 points in that one! A team with five new starters can be expected to struggle on the road in unfriendly confines and we expect another performance like that here. They will have to contend with Richard Hendrix who already has 30 blocked shots. He will clog up the middle and make it difficult for Florida. The good news for our UNDER pick here is that Florida is allowing just over 60 points per game. Under Billy Donovan, the Gators are 28-16 UNDER vs. top rebounding teams. Under Mark Gottfried, the Tide is 24-13 UNDER after a game in which they scored 80+ points and 21-10 UNDER after a game in which 155+ total points were scored. Take the UNDER here.

Georgetown is expected to finish at the top of the Big East, while DePaul is expected to finish at the bottom. The Hoyas are shooting as well as anyone in the country and defending as well as anyone in the country right as well right now. There is a sore spot for the Hoyas and that is their 59% shooting at the FT line. It costs them about 6-7 points per night, and that may come back to haunt them here. DePaul has played a schedule that is much tougher than it looked before the season started, and that has helped this team come together much quicker than expected. They have already played at 14-0 Kansas, lost in OT to 15-0 Vanderbilt, and lost by 6 on a neutral court vs 13-0 Mississippi, as well as dropping a decision to 12-2 Clemson. They have really come on beating a 12-2 Nova team soundly at home, as well as a notching a win vs Providence. They have now run off four in a row, and are playing with confidence. They have an opportunity at home to make some noise in the Big East, so Georgetown better be ready to take their best shot, and we think they hang tough here.

Results: 2-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our sportsbook reviews NCAA basketball.
• Check out NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated ncaa basketball tournament picks.
• Take a look at our 2007 college basketball gambling preivew here.
• View our updated college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Here we show our 2007 NCAA basketball prior picks.
• Check out ncaa bracket picks here.
• View our college basketball against-the-spread standings here.
• Check out NCAA basketball blog here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball picks.
• Hop over to our college basketball odds and lines here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-07-2008
Tennessee Martin is averaging just 41.8% from the field overall and 37.8% on the road. That kind of shooting can make for an off night and with a total this high, we'll look to the UNDER. The Skyh...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-06-2008
Pittsburgh sustained a pair of severe blows as Lavance Fields and Mike Cook have gone down with injuries. It's tough to go on the road in the Big East missing your playmaker and another ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-05-2008
Syracuse is rolling right now having won five straight by an average score of 92.6 to 68.4. On the season they are 9-2 at home. To beat the Orange, you must keep up with their prolific scoring and S. ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-03-2008
The Irish will open Big East play against West Virginia. Notre Dame has been one of the most difficult teams to play at home as they swept the schedule last year, and stand at 8-0 so far this season. ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-02-2008
Georgia State owns three wins. They beat Texas-San Antonio at home in OT, a team which owns a 0-4 road record. They beat Jacksonville at home, a team that is 1-7 on the road, the lone win over South C...