Basketball Predictions - January 04, 2009

We gave some of our recent run back last night and are now 7-5 for +3.1 units over the past four days. Today we roll with three picks including an early game on CBS..

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Kentucky at Louisvillle (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kentucky +8 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Kentucky is 11-3 and have won six straight and 11 of 12. And they are facing a team that has lost two of their last three. Yet the Wildcatsare given little chance in this one. I beg to differ and I think they will come out with a chip on their shoulder. It is true that Kentucky has played just one true road game this season - a 19 point loss. But that came at the hands of an NBA-caliber team in North Carolina. They played neutral-court games vs. Kansas State, West Virginia and Appalachian State, winning all three both SU and ATS. The combination of Jodie Meeks (who poured in 46 on App State and is averaging 24.1 ppg) and Patrick Patterson (a ridiculous 72.2% from the field and 30 blocks thus far) will cause trouble for the Cardinals. Louisville is coming off a loss as a 14-point favorite and the Cardinals are just 6-18 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite in their last 24. This line, based on the high expectations for Pitino's team, is too high given the realities of the season thus far.

Cincinnati has gone 9-1 at home but just 1-2 on the road and they are off an ugly loss. They now face a team that is undefeated at home, leading to this large spread. But are these teams really 10 points different? Marquette has the better offense but Cincy has the better defense, holding opponents to just 60.2 ppg (over 7 ppg less than Marquette). The Bearcats are coming off a bad-looking loss last game at Memphis. They shot just 12-for-46 from the field, yet they nearly covered the spread! This team is averaging 43% from the field on the season so you can bet another performance like that is not in the cards. Dating back to last season, Cincy is 13-4 ATS off a loss. They are 8-1 ATS off a road loss and 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss over that span. That Memphis loss scares bettors but it actually makes them a great play today. This line is off and I like the Bearcats to keep it close.

Two good defenses collide here but the numbers are a little misleading. While Drake is holding opponents at home to under 60 points per game, on the road they are allowing 68.2 per game. In two conference games, S. Illinois has given up 69 ppg. They weak offense does ok at home (65 ppg). Over their last five games, Drake has averaged 68 ppg on offense. So, this situation and matchup provides value on the OVER. In their last 20 road games as an underdog of 6+ points, Drake is 15-5 OVER. This one should get over the low posted total.

Results: 2-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our 2008 NCAA basketball season preview.
• Check out NCAA basketball betting here.
• View 2008 NCAA basketball season prior picks here.
• Here we show our how to bet NCAA basketball.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Don't forget to visit our blog college basketball.
• View our free college basketball pick here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball odds here.
• View our updated march madness brackets.
• Hop over to our college basketball ATS recrds here.
• View our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Check out our updated college basketball prior predictions.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-03-2009
Not to long ago, the St. John's program was one of the top programs in the country. It has since fallen and may never get up. The Johnnies continue to struggle and are now facing bad breaks to go ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-02-2009
The Broncos are in a tough spot here as they are off of back-to-back games Monday and Tuesday and after the Holiday, they must make the cross-country trip to face the Harvard Crimson. The Broncos have...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-January-01-2009
Western Kentucky is simply on a different level than Troy State. The Hilltoppers have been impressive with wins over Georgia, Louisville, and Southern Illinois. They also have yet to lose at home wher...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-31-2008
The fifth-ranked Blue Devils have won 65 straight here at home vs. non-conference foes. They are 10-1 this season and at home they are playing stifling defense holding foes to just 61.3 points per gam...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-30-2008
UMass is just 2-4 on the road this season where they have been outscored by 4.5 points per game. They are 1-4 ATS in those games. Houston is 4-1 at home, winning by 25 points per game. They have cover...