We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Charlotte at Dayton (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Charlotte +7.5

Charlotte seems to have found themselves as they have now won 3 straight games. Dayton after a 10-1 start played a bit over their head with games vs NC, and Pitt, and has now dropped to 10-3. They have now dropped 4 straight ATS, and these teams appear to be heading in opposite directions. The one thing about Dayton, is when this team begins to slide, they seem to continue to slide as they are now a dismal 8-22 ATS following an ATS loss. The Niners are an improved team, and we like them to be in this game right down to the wire so we will take the points.

Arkansas St. has had a couple games postponed because of weather situations, and has been idle for a bit, while UL Monroe has rattled off 5 in a row, stand 7-0 at home, and 3-0 in conference play. Monroe has only lost 6 games, and when you consider 4 were to SEC teams, 1 to a Big 12 team, and SMU, they certainly have run the table vs teams that are more on their own level. Arkansas St. is just 7-8, and has not played the same schedule as Monroe, and have been poor on the road going just 2-6. Monroe has been battle tested, is playing at home where they seldom lose, against a team that has been idle a bit in Arkansas St. and we see them getting it done here tonight. Back the home team.

Drake was a team that came oh so close so many times last year, and ended up winning just 13 games. This year's team is a bit more experienced, and also much better, and has already won 9 games, including a win at Iowa. There is no question that Drake can play with the elite of the MVC on their home-court. Last year they lost to Creighton in OT, to Wichita St. by 2, to N. Iowa by 2, and to Evansville and S. Illinois by 1 each. This year's team is much improved, and although this team still isn't producing on the road, they are a tough out at home, where they are already 6-0 this year. We look for Drake to spring the upset tonight over S. Illinois.

There is never any value playing on a #1 ranked undefeated team. What you have to do is find a spot where they could get caught napping, and this is an excellent place for that to occur. UCLA is off a big game with Washington, and next up on Saturday is a match-up with 13-0 Oregon. This becomes one of those sandwich games, where you have a live home dog, that will be gunning for a team that may not be emotionally, and mentally into the game. There is also a good track record for Oregon St. to pull off surprises anyway. This year they stayed within 7 of LSU and got the money, and also lost to Oregon by just 3 and got the money. Last year Arizona came in here as a 9 point favorite and left with a 10 point loss! Washington came in here the year before as an 8.5 point favorite and a 20-3 record and left with a 90-73 loss! This is a lot of points to be giving a home dog, that has shown a big bite, especially sandwiched between 2 big games for UCLA. Oregon St. is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a +8.5 home dog or more since February of '04! Take the dog here!

Montana is not the kind of team they were last year, and simply has not been able to get it done on the road this year, where they stand at a woeful 1-7. Sacramento St. isn't a team that will win a lot of games, but they have been on the road for all but 5 games in the early going, and they usually take care of business on their home-court. This season they stand at 4-1, and Montana has been 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite on the road. Sacramento St. has really cleaned up against teams with a .400 or less road winning percentage, as they have been 14-6 ATS in these types of games. We look for Sacramento St. to get yet another home win tonight.