Final Four Picks - January 01, 2010

We split last night 3-3 for just over +1 unit of profit. Today we take to the college hoops floor with four premium plays including a 5-unit pick.

We ended a historic December going 221-145 (60%) for +201 units across all sports.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: West Virginia at Purdue (2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on West Virginia +5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

Two undefeated Top 10 teams collide here in West Lafayette. I think these teams are very close and I really like the Mountaineers getting more than two baskets. Purdue has lost three straight ATS and this team hasn't really faced anyone tough outside of Tennessee back in November. West Virginia beat Seton Hall on the road last week so they know they can win a big one on the road. The Boilermakers are just 35-54 ATS over the past fifteen years after three straight games as a favorite including 12-23 ATS under head coach Matt Painter. Under Painter, they are 3-11 ATS after allowing 65 or fewer points in five straight games. I like West Virginia here in a game they can win outright.

The Northern Iowa Panthers are everyone's favorite to cut down the nets in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, and have opened 10-1. They have won, but not in resounding fashion as they have not logged a win by more than 18 points on their home court. They are coming off a huge win at Creighton, clearing their first big hurdle in the MVC and could be in a flat spot here. The Purple Aces are showing some heart staying within 6 at Western Kentucky, and almost pulling off the upset vs. a top-flight, experienced Butler team. The Aces have hung close as double-digit dogs and this one is an overlay, so I'll go with Evansville here.

None expected Missouri State to be in the thick of things this season in the MVC, but here they are at 11-1, and poised to be at the top of the league. When you consider that the lone loss came on the road in the SEC to Arkansas in overtime, the Bears can play. While the star quality is not present, the starting five can all shot, and all hit from deep, making them a tough team to contain at the offensive end. The Redbirds come in at 10-2, but have misfired in their two shots at a quality opponent, and I respect their level of play enough to believe they can hang close here, so I’m opting for Missouri St. on the moneyline.

I'm not sure if New Mexico is as good as their 13-1 record would indicate, but they certainly are a team that will win some games. I am sure that this Dayton team is worthy of a choice getting this many points vs. just about anyone as the Flyers can play and are experienced enough not to wilt on the road. The Flyers at just a 5-point dog to a Villanova team who is hands down better than the Lobos, and they lost to the Cats by 5. The Flyers are good enough to win here, and shouldn't be rattled, so staying close is a pretty likely scenario. I'll go with Dayton in this one.

Results: 2-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our free NCAA basketball predictions here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball previous picks here.
• View march madness brackets here.
• Check out NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball lines and odds here.
• Don't forget to visit our blog NCAA basketball picks.
• Hop over to our college basketball sports book here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness picks.
• Read our 2009 NCAA basketball season picks here.
• Here we show our 2009 season NCAA basketball betting preview.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball ATS records .

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-31-2009
The Privateers appear to be a good home club, dropping just one, but their schedule is extremely weak with two wins coming against teams below Div-1, and the other two vs. Houston Baptist and Texas St...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-30-2009
After a four-game slide, Canisius has won two straight including a huge upset win over Southern Miss in which the Golden Griffins were an 11.5 point underdog! The Bonnies are heading the other directi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-29-2009
Jacksonville scores just 62.6 per game on the road. That puts a lot of pressure on Buffalo to help this one get over this high total. Neutral court games featuring a team off back-to-back double-digit...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-28-2009
8-2 meets 2-8 and I expect this one to get ugly. Wake has had one really bad game this year, losing to William & Mary as a 16-point favorite. Their only other loss was at Purdue which no one expec...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2009
Both of these teams can score, especially Maryland. But, the Terps can also play defense. They have allowed just 63.6 per game this season (61.7 at home). Their games have been going OVER at a high ra...