Ncaa Basketball Picks - February 29, 2008
We went 2-2 last night and remain a profitable 56% over the past nine weeks. Today we have four picks from the Ivy.
Today we also take a look at the crazy coaching situation at Indiana University in one of our Dog Pound articles below.
Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Dartmouth at Cornell (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dartmouth +17.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Big Red have a three-game lead atop the Ivy League standings, so why get up for this game against lowly Dartmouth? They have won 12 straight and are perfect in conference games. They are coming off a double-digit win as well. They will have a lot of trouble getting up for this game. They will win, but we expect a letdown and a Dartmouth cover of a huge 17.5 point spread. Cornell has a history of this as they are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games against losing teams in late-season play including 4-13 ATS vs. teams with a win rate of 40% or worse! Cornell is also 10-19 ATS as a home favorite under Steve Donahue.
Game: Princeton at Brown (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Princeton +12 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 117 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Princeton was once the king-pin in the Ivy, but has fallen off the map. What were once double-digit chalk lines are now double-digit dog lines. But despite Princeton's road horrors this year we like them in this spot. Five of their eight ATS covers this season have come on the road. Road dogs of 10-20 points coming off of an upset loss cover their next game 67% of the time (84-41 over the past five seasons). They should be able to hang close enough to Brown in this one. Along with a drop like Princeton's come games that are giving odds-makers a struggle to set totals. An average of 105.7 points in games they played in the Ivy has risen to 125.1 ppg, which is 5+ points higher than where the odds-makers have set the totals this season. With the public perception still on the 40s and 50s of past Princeton teams, that has certainly changed. Brown has not produced less than 64 points in any Ivy League home game this season and the average points scored is 133. They connect on 40% of three-point shots while allowing 37%, and that should be enough to take advantage of a forced, low-set total at the hands of the odds-makers. Take the Tigers and the OVER here.
Game: Harvard at Columbia (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Columbia -7.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The road has been a horror show for the Crimson as they stand at 0-14. Ivy play hasn't aided the cause as they are 0-5, losing four of the five by double-digits. They have been forced to play without Phil Margnarelli - their top rebounder and double-digit scorer to make matters even more difficult to overcome. They are shooting just 38.7% in Ivy road play, as well as only hitting 26% from three-point range. They have made 76 turnovers while assisting on just 45 hoops, an undeniable recipe for disaster. The defensive end is equally woeful as they allow 48.2% shooting and nearly 40% from three. Columbia is 7-3 ATS in Ivy play and is hitting 44% of their three's at home which will spell doom for the Crimson in this contest.
Results: 3-1
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-28-2008
Notre Dame has been unbeatable at home, but the road has been a different story especially against the top of the conference. They were humiliated at Georgetown by 19 points and at Marquette by 26. As...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2008
Florida is obviously used to being in the Big Dance of late but their fate this season is still to be determined. The scored a big win over South Carolina last Wednesday. They need to keep winning to ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2008
The Huskies had a 10-game winning streak end at Villonova on Saturday. Even during the streak, the margin for error for this team was very slim. They went through eight games winning by 5, 1, 6, 2, 7,...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-25-2008
Nova is fresh off big win vs. UConn and this line tells you all that is needed to know. Nova was a slight favorite vs Connecticut but is now a slight dog vs Marquette? Marquette has lost to ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-24-2008
Is there any conference better than the Big East this year? Pittsburgh will take their third crack at getting to the 20-win plateau and we think they get there at home vs. #18 Louisville. Pittsburgh g...
