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College Basketball Predictions - February 28, 2008

We went 2-1 last night for +4.4 units, hitting our third straight 4-unit play to boost our record on the top rated 4 and 5-unit plays to 57-30. Tonight we have four plays.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORTWINS-LOSSES%NET
CBB 174-136 last 310 picks 56%+$1150
MLB 1-0 Season-to-Date  +$160
NBA 10-1 last 11 picks 91%+$2230
NHL 8-5 last 13 picks  +$940
TOTAL  +$4480

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Notre Dame at Louisville (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Louisville -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Notre Dame has been unbeatable at home, but the road has been a different story especially against the top of the conference. They were humiliated at Georgetown by 19 points and at Marquette by 26. As Louisville has gotten healthy they have gotten much better and playing about as good as anyone in the conference overall. The Cards have won and covered seven in a row, and in their last six home tilts in the Big East no one has come within eight points and their average margin has been 15.8 points per game in these six. Notre Dame is reliant on hitting a lot of 3's, but Louisville defends them at 30.3% (14th nationally) and overall has the No. 3-rated FG percentage defense at 37.5%. We see a handy double-digit win by the Cards at home.


Game: Loyola Chicago at Wisconsin Milwaukee (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Loyola Chicago +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Wisconsin Milwaukee has dropped six of their last seven games, dropping them below .500 on the season. Loyola has major problems on offense, but they have a very good defense which keeps them in games. They are allowing 63.9 per game on the season and 59.6 over their last five games. Wisconsin Milwaukee allows 70 points per game on the season and 72.6 over their last five games. They are 0-6 ATS this season against good defensive teams (those allowing less than 64 ppg). Loyola loves playing low-pressure teams like WMW as they are 12-1 ATS over teams that average fewer than seven steals per game after 15+ games. We like the underdog here.


Game: Detroit at Valparaiso (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Detroit +12 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Titans have had a long season, but have been a lot more competitive than their 7-20 record would indicate. The Titans are 0-6 on the road in conference play, but five of the six losses have been by seven points or less with the sixth coming by just 10. The Crusaders haven't exactly marched liked a champion through Horizon play themselves. They are just 3-4 at home and outside of a big win over Youngstown State, their biggest win was by nine points. Most of their work on the season took place early on where they ran off to a 10-1 start, but have since faded to a 7-11 mark over their last 18. Too many points.


Game: Wright State at Butler (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Wright State +12 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Wright State had run off 11 in a row and got caught at home by Illinois State, a game in which they got caught peeking ahead to this showdown against Butler. If there is a team in the entire country that can go to Butler with confidence it is Wright State. They have simply owned Butler to the tune of winning 8 of the last 10, but more importantly, four of the last five. These teams typically play close games as 7 of the last 10, have come by eight points or less. Butler may have gotten caught themselves, dropping a home decision to a very good Drake team. Butler has been asked to do too much as they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 and the offense just doesn't produce enough points to cover the big spreads, as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a double-digit favorite. These teams produced just 85 total points early in the season and in 7 of their last 10, the final point tally has been 116 or less. This is a ton of points to be giving a good team that has been highly effective against the Bulldogs, when the games are usually played in the 40s, and 50s. We'll grab the points here.


Results: 2-2

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:


Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-27-2008
Florida is obviously used to being in the Big Dance of late but their fate this season is still to be determined. The scored a big win over South Carolina last Wednesday. They need to keep winning to ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-26-2008
The Huskies had a 10-game winning streak end at Villonova on Saturday. Even during the streak, the margin for error for this team was very slim. They went through eight games winning by 5, 1, 6, 2, 7,...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-25-2008
Nova is fresh off big win vs. UConn and this line tells you all that is needed to know. Nova was a slight favorite vs Connecticut but is now a slight dog vs Marquette? Marquette has lost to ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-24-2008
Is there any conference better than the Big East this year? Pittsburgh will take their third crack at getting to the 20-win plateau and we think they get there at home vs. #18 Louisville. Pittsburgh g...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-23-2008
Nevada has slipped seriously since the good ole days of four straight league titles. They are solid at home this season (11-2) but weak on the road (6-7). The Salukis are 11-2 at home and 7-4 ATS...

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