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Game: Detroit at Youngstown State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 126 -110

Youngstown State is a much more offensive team while playing at home. They have compiled a 7-1 record to the OVER in the conference this season. That includes a game that saw the total reach 152 points against this same Detroit team on Valentine's Day. Youngstown St. has averaged 141.6-points per game (PPG) scored in its last seven home conference games. Detroit is coming off an ATS loss, in which case they have played 12-4 to the OVER as well.

This game is set-up nicely. Michigan State is off a four game home stand where they beat Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana. That run certainly gives them the look of a team that should be favored here. The problem is this one is on the road. Michigan St. has managed just one road win all season and that came at Penn St. They are also coming off of back-to-back huge emotional wins over Wisconsin and Indiana. Michigan has been a tough one at home, and will be playing with revenge for that earlier defeat. Wrong team favored here.

The public hasn't bought into Florida's struggles yet, but we have. How many games does it take? They have now lost two of three, and have failed to cover five in a row. Now they are going into a building where Tennessee has lost just once this entire season, and again laying points. Noah did nothing against LSU - four points, three rebounds, and the Florida guards are doing nothing. Brewer, Horford and Noah seem to have to do all the scoring. The defense in losses has been horrible. Kansas shoots 54%, LSU 51.1%, Vandy 57.1%, and Florida State 47%. We look for this game to be contested in a much greater way than those games, and for Tennessee to win outright, in a game with much less scoring than many believe.

These two teams are among the top five home-courts in college basketball. Neither has lost at home this year and neither lose at home hardly ever! Air Force has gone a stunning 56-1 at home to the OVER in their last 57 games. BYU is just 19-52-2 ATS as a road dog in their last 73 games, and that includes 1-5 ATS this year. Air Force is 23-7-1 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less in their last 31 games. Last year, an 8-3 BYU came in here and lost by 16 points, two years ago they had a poor team and lost by 31, and three years ago they were very good, came in at 12-4, and just a single-point dog, and lost by 22! Most of these kids were around for all of them. Air Force will dominate at home and win by more than 10 points.