We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Rider at Niagara (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Rider +7.5
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 156 -110

Rider is a solid fundamental team. They hit nearly 73% of their free throws and over 37% from three-point land. These are the types of teams that Niagara struggles against. Niagara is 6-15 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that make 37%+ of their three-pointers and they are just 5-15 ATS in their last twenty vs. teams making 72%+ of their free throws. Yes, Niagara has won seven straight. But, they have failed to cover all but one of their last five games. Meanwhile, Rider has only lost three of their last ten ATS. Rider has fared better against common opponents this season. They are 11-7 SU and 9-7 ATS whereas Niagara is also 11-7 SU and 8-8 ATS. Niagara is 9-19 ATS as a home favorite and 20-34 ATS vs. conference foes over the past three seasons. Why is Niagara laying so many points here? Seems way to many and we'll back the dog. Both of these teams have had OVER tendencies all season long and hve gone OVER more than not recently. As a result, this total has been inflated and is several points too high. We'll back the dog and the UNDER here.

Manhattan has won six of the last seven and covered seven of the last ten vs. Iona here at home. They dismantled Iona by 10 points on the road in January and now lay just 8 points at home. This should be a double-digit spread folks. Take a look at performance against common opponents this season. Iona has gone 1-17 vs. common foes while Manhattan has won eight of eighteen. Manhattan has had a bad ron the past five games, losing all five SU and ATS. This is why we see this line so low. But those games were all as an underdog (except against Niagara they were -1). Those were all equal or better teams. Against Iona, they will be able to take out their frustrations. Iona has won just one game on the road this season and covered only six of sixteen. Their offense is terrible and getting worse. They have not scored more than 43 points in five straight games! This year they are 1-10 ATS following a game in which they scored under 56 points. Iona has given up and they get crushed today.

Two weak offensive teams lead to a very low line here. Fairfield is averaging just 60 ppg on the road while St. Peters is getting just 62.4 per game at home. But, doesn't that add up to 122? Yes, this line seems too low. Both teams shoot under 41% from the field. But, Fairfield is 13-4 OVER the past two seasons vs. teams that shoot 42% or worse. Fairfield gives up 65 ppg on the road while St. Peters allows 67 ppg at home. Again, the line is just too low here as both teams have a good shot at reaching the 60s.

It is rare to see an Arizona team in a fight to reach the NCAA tournament so they aren't coming in here flat and uninterested. They have gone 5-8 in their last 13 games, but measure the losses. They lost to UCLA twice, USC twice, Washington State twice, Oregon, and North Carolina. Their losses came against top-tier NCAA teams. What isn't noticed is they are 17-0 since game one vs. everyone else! That includes a margin of victory of 15.4 ppg in those seventeen games. Arizona State is off a highly emotional win vs. USC. It was their first conference win of the season and we expect them to be flat here. When you have a flat bad team, facing a motivated good team, that is not the place for upsets.