Final Four Predictions - February 24, 2008

We went 1-2 yesterday and have four picks today...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Louisville at Pittsburgh (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +0 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Is there any conference better than the Big East this year? Pittsburgh will take their third crack at getting to the 20-win plateau and we think they get there at home vs. #18 Louisville. Pittsburgh gave Notre Dame a fight in their last outing despite going 7-for-25 from three-point land and 11-for-18 from the charity stripe. They will shoot better than that here. The Panthers are 14-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 19.5 ppg. Louisville, 13-2 at home, is 8-4 on the road. They give up about 10 ppg more on the road than they do at home. Pitt is 15-5 ATs off a loss the past three seasons and we look for them to exhibit more home dominance and play hard enough to avoid a third straight loss.

The Tide sure has been ineffective on the SEC road, where they stand at 0-5, and suddenly they are favored here? Not buying it. This is a 3-8 team that has only faced the road seven times all year, loaded up on out-of-conference home games to pad the win column, and has only won on the road all season at lowly 11-17 Mercer. The Tide shot 60% and 56% from three at South Carolina last game, and lost! They had three players that made all but one FG in that game, and this team is very limited. The Tigers are in no better place than Bama, but have the sting of the 20 point loss earlier, that usually means the effort here will be major. This is what we call a "reputation" line, both these teams equal, and Bama has the name, but Tigers have revenge and home-court.

Here we have another ranked team getting points on the road to an unranked opponent. Ohio State lost a lot of talent from last year's team but they have managed to put together a surprising 17-9 mark (12-2 at home). They have done it on defense, allowing just 60.1 ppg (56.4 at hopme). The Buckeyes are 34-19 ATS after having lost 2+ of their last three games. Under Thad Matta, Ohio State is 8-1 ATS after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. Under Bo Ryan, the Badgers have improved immensely but they are still just 21-32 ATS under Ryan on the road after a double-digit win. Buckeyes here.

Wright State road games average about 15 ppg more than their home games this season. Their great defense isn't so great when away from home. Illinois State can put up the points (71 per game at home this season). The Raiders are 9-4 OVER in their last thirteen games in which they were an underdog including 7-2 OVER as a road dog. Yes, this should be a low-scoring game but this total is too low and we like the OVER.

Results: 1-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbooks here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball gambling philosophy.
• Check out march madness picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 college basketball preivew.
• Hop over to our college basketball Game Analysis here.
• View our updated 2007 NCAA basketball season prior picks.
• Take a look at our ncaa tournament picks here.
• Check out college basketball ATS recrds here.
• Hop over to our blog college basketball here.
• View college basketball predictions here.
• Check out college basketball prior predictions here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball odds lines and spreads here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-23-2008
Nevada has slipped seriously since the good ole days of four straight league titles. They are solid at home this season (11-2) but weak on the road (6-7). The Salukis are 11-2 at home and 7-4 ATS...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-22-2008
The Wildcats have been roaring with 16-straight in the win column and this one looks easy as Winthrop lost most key pieces from a 29-5 NCAA tourney team last season. Not so fast! Davidson has not exac...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-21-2008
This young Tech team has hit the wall, dropping three in a row. What was once a team hitting 48% and 38% from beyond the arc, has only shot 41.9% and 27.4% in the three losses. Virginia finally b...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-20-2008
Drexel is just 11-16 and 4-11 in conference play. They are shooting 40.9% from the field and scoring just over 60 ppg. On the road it get's worse (58.1 ppg on 40.4%). That spells real trouble when...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-19-2008
Davidson is in a class unto itself in the Southern Conference. They are virtually unbeatable on their home-court, where they are 10-0 and winning all ten by double-digits. The average margin has ...