Ncaa Final Four - February 21, 2009

We went 1-2 last night with a push, to give back a few units. We really like today's BracketBuster action and go with seven premium picks...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Louisiana Tech at Murray State (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Louisiana Tech +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Murray State has put seven of their last eight in the win column. This is a BracketBuster game that typically gets played like an NCAA Tournament game, and the dogs are usually barking loud. The Racers have been great in conference, but the out-of-conference mark suggests their record is a product of a weak conference and not a good team. Louisiana Tech has four less wins, but they have certainly faced much better competition, and this line suggests the gap is wider than it is. Louisiana Tech has also been under-valued all season and is now 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games. I like them to stay close in this one, and I'll take the load of points here.

The Red Hawks have not only had a decent season so far, they have been cashing winners for their backers as they have turned in a nice profitable 14-8 ATS mark for the year. When you consider the bulk of the losses have been to Pitt, UCLA, Dayton, Xavier, West Virginia, and Buffalo, there aren’t too many teams they are not capable of beating that are more on their level. The Purple Aces got out of the gate strong in the MVC, but have faltered and are now just 4-8 in their last 12, and have dropped three straight. They also have not fared well vs. teams with a winning record as they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven. This is a good spot for a solid Miami, Ohio team to pick up the non-conference win.

Georgia Sate went through a lot of growing pains with a young team early in the season. They had just three wins to show for their first 17 games of the season, and none of those were on the road. This team has matured into a decent, respectable team and has now been 5-5 in their last 10, including two road wins. Their last one was a big one at a very good Northeastern team. The Eastern Michigan Eagles also got off to a bad start. Unfortunately, they still haven't found themselves and have just two wins over Division-1 schools, and it took OT to get one of those. This is clearly a bad team, facing a team that has made great strides on the season. I'll back Georgia State in this one.

I am not sure how much value you’re going to find on a team that is 0-13 in their last 13 games that is listed as a favorite. That is the case with Air Force here. They aren't even coming close as they have lost five of their last six at home by 10+. The Rams certainly are nothing to brag about, but they already own a double-digit win over Air Force this season, and is the better team here and getting points. This Falcons’ class is just 17-37 ATS at home against conference teams. Their inconsistent play has led to an awful 3-13 ATS mark after an ATS win. The Rams will smell a win coming in here and there is no home-court advantage so the line is soft. The Rams get the call here.

You can bet that Tennessee Martin will be pumped up for this one. They get a chance to play a team from a better conference and they are by far the better team, so there could be a letdown here. Missouri State has made some noise in the NCAA Tournament in the past, but this is one of their worst teams in a long time. Like young teams, the Bears have been a colossal struggle on the road, where they are just 1-10. The lone win was eeked out at Central Michigan - not a superb team. Tennessee Martin can score and score in bunches, and I don't see the Bears keeping pace in this one. The Skyhawks have been in the 80s on 12 occasions this season, and I will take them here on the moneyline.

The Boise State Broncos have proved they can play with any team on this level as they have already knocked off Utah State. They are a versatile team that can win games played in the 50s or the 80s. The Broncos are a good offensive team that can shoot well and knock down the threes. The oddsmakers have caught up with this Portland State team, and so have the other teams. An upstart 15-5 team has fallen off as the season has progressed and is just 3-4 in their last seven games and has covered just once in their last seven, and that was by a single point. The Broncos step it up against the better teams as they sport an 11-3-1 ATS mark on the road against teams with a .600+ winning percentage. Broncos have a chance for the win here, so I'll gladly grab the points in this one.

South Alabama is off a big road win as they cashed as a dog at Middle Tennessee. The Jaguars have been seriously overpriced at home however, as testified by their 2-9 ATS record. The Louisiana, Monroe Warhawks have been an improved team, and it hasn't shown in the win column. But they were once a 5-13 team that has now gone 4-4 in their last eight games. More importantly is that they are 10-6 ATS in their last 16, and playing on a higher level overall. The Jags have managed just a single cover in their last eight at home, and this one is a bit too high, so I'll back the Warhawks here.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View 2008 NCAA basketball handicapping preview here.
• Check out sportsbook reviews NCAA basketball here.
• Here we show our 2008 NCAA basketball picks.
• Check out NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball Game Analysis.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball blog here.
• Don't forget to read our college basketball predictions here.
• View college basketball lines here.
• Check out our updated ncaa bracket picks.
• View our updated NCAA basketball ATS recprds.
• Here we show our ncaa march madness picks.
• Read our college basketball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-20-2009
The Redbirds were a hot team to open the season with a perfect 14-0 mark, but then stumbled to go 5-5. It wasn't as bad as it looked however, as two of the losses came in OT, and none of the other...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-19-2009
I am hard pressed to understand why the Colonials rate as the choice here. They jumped out to a 6-2 start with some real creampuffs, but have been humbled since going 1-12, with the lone win coming ag...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-18-2009
N. Illinois has managed just one road win all season and that was at Alaska Anchorage. They are starting to play better as they are coming off a win and two straight covers for the first time since mi...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-17-2009
While Eastern Carolina has played tough at home, the road has not been their friend. They have managed just a 3-7 mark on the road, but when you look at the three wins, none have come against anything...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-16-2009
A huge heavyweight battle between the Pitt Panthers and the UConn Huskies takes shape tonight in Connecticut. This game definitely has No. 1 seeding ramifications for the NCAA Tournament attached to i...