College Basketball Picks - February 20, 2010

Bracket Buster is in full swing today. Last night we split our CBB picks and are 159-134 for +48 units over the last two and a half months. We go with nine picks today including two 4-unit picks and a 5-unit selection.

As you can see, over the past nine months, we have taken a $10,000 bankroll and turned it into $33,480. This is all picks, all sports. Seven of nine months winning.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Furman at Davidson (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Furman +12 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Davidson Wildcats have enjoyed the limelight over the past few years, and that has made them a public favorite. It is hard not to visualize their big NCAA Tournament wins against some heavyweights. The problem is that the oddsmakers are aware, and this is not that team, and find themselves in pricy situations as a big favorite, but don't have the team to manage the large numbers. The Wildcats have been “Mildcats” covering just two of their last 11 games. The Paladins aren't far behind and looking at their slate, they have yet to drop a conference game this season by more than 12 points. That makes this one rich with value in a severe overlay, I'll go with Furman here.

The Lobos are tourney bound as they have had a great season up to this point, and that comes with a price - a rather steep one in this contest. The Falcons can get blown out, but they offer their own safety net and that is a shot clock melting, Princeton-type offense that shortens games, making large numbers very vulnerable. The proof is in their 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 when posted as a 16.5 dog or higher. The Lobo's at 24-3, certainly are a strong enough team to win big, but their opportunities will be limited in a slowdown game. I'll go with Air Force here.

The Fordham Rams have gone over three months without a win, and have yet to record one in conference play or on the road. They have in their 24 games, been a victim five times by a larger deficit than this spread, but held Rhode Island inside of a 20-point margin in the first meeting. This game is a rest game for URI, and interest in blowing this one open is not going to be there especially with tourney aspirations and bigger fish to fry lying ahead. This URI team is also not a blowout team and just one game on the season have they had a margin of 20+ points. This one is highly inflated, but unlikely to perform up to the crazy expectations of the oddsmakers here. I'll go with Fordham in this one.

The Toledo Rockets have dropped 17 straight games. They have won just three on the year and one of those was against a non Div-1 team. That leads to one thing - them being offered at an inflated price, and at 18 it has definitely swung the balance of value their way. Playing in the tougher MAC Conference, they have not lost any of their last seven by this margin, and they have covered four of their last five as a dog of 15 or more. Cleveland State had it going with six straight wins, but this team has been slumping badly dropping their last three, and have not scored 60 points in any of them. They are going to have to do a lot more scoring than that to cover this one and I don't see it. I'll go with Toledo in this one.

The Colorado State Rams are not a bad team at 15-10. The number here looms large and a lot of that has to do with them laying an egg in their last game vs. BYU, which resulted in a 22-point home loss. They played this UNLV team tough at home before dropping just an 8-point decision. UNLV does not appear to be the same team that beat this Rams squad earlier as they have gone from 19-4 to 19-7 after dropping their last three. They have also taken just one of their last 13 games by more than 15 points, so this one is set way too high. The Rams have bounced back to go 4-0 ATS after a 10+ loss at home, and I like them here to stay inside the number. Colorado State gets the nod.

Princeton played their best offensive game of the season last night, connecting on over 50% of their shots and draining an amazing 13-19 from beyond the arc for nearly 70%! That certainly is unlikely to happen tonight as these things tend to even out and Princeton is usually playing in the 40s and 50s, making large numbers hard to take down. Brown is playing better, winning two of their last three and has had good results as a big dog going 4-2 ATS. The Tigers have not been very good with increased expectations, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a 20+ point win. I'll go with Brown to hang inside the inflated number here.

The Harvard Crimson has had a big season, but must be disappointed after their loss here last night to Cornell. It was their second loss to Cornell, dashing their hopes for an NCAA Tourney bid, and even at 17-6, no Ivy League team has ever gotten an at-large bid, and they won't either. They will likely be playing in a huge letdown situation here and Columbia likes to play slow, and has a lot of weapons from deep with three players connecting on 40% or better. That should be enough to take a limited possession game, a huge line, and a team in a big letdown situation to a close game. I like Columbia in this one.

The Panthers have won three in a row, but the only real impressive win was over Detroit. They almost lost as a 9 point favorite to Youngstown State. Niagara has won four of their last five including a very impressive 87-74 win as a dog over Siena. The bottom line is that the Purple Eagles are playing their best basketball right now while the Panthers are not. Niagara has covered 36 of their last 56 non-conference road games while Wisconsin-Milwaukee is just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. non-conference opponents. I like Niagara here.

Privateers after some bad basketball, awakened and shocked the LA Monroe Warhawks on the road by 9, as a double-digit dog. It has to have breathed some life in a team that was desperate for a win, and that renewed vitality, playing at home as a solid dog, is going to have some bite here. This Denver Pioneer team once 12-5 has fallen off sharply, and have gone just 3-6 since. The problem there is all 3 wins have come at home, and they have not won on the road since just after Thanksgiving, almost 3 months ago, so to see them posted as a solid favorite on the road, is not a place I'd want to be putting my cash. New Orleans is the confident team here, and this one comes down to the wire. I'll go with New Orleans.

Results: 4-5

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated free college basketball picks.
• View NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Hop over to our ncaa march madness brackets here.
• View NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• View NCAA basketball odds here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball blog.
• Take a look at our sportsbook reviews college basketball here.
• Read our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Take a look at our ncaa march madness picks here.
• Here we show our 2009 NCAA basketball prior picks.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 college basketball season preivew.
• Check out NCAA basketball against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-19-2010
Both of these teams have NCAA dance aspirations and the winner gets a quality win, which they will need in case they are not their conference champion. Similar matchups in the past have really perplex...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-18-2010
IUPUI squeaked by UMKC by one point in their first meeting last month. Now they are laying 14.5 here? Certainly the home team is the better squad here but this line is too high. UMKC has a winning roa...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-17-2010
There is a price for success in the gambling world and that is becoming more and more evident with each Butler win, now 23-4 and winners of their last 15. This is not your typical bigtime winning team...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-15-2010
Fairfield is 17-8 while Manhattan is just 9-16. Yes, this is nearly a pick-‘em game. The oddsmakers know something and I agree with them that Manhattan could really surprise here. The Stags are ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-14-2010
When these teams met a month ago, Niagara rolled to a 16-point victory. That can lead to complacency when getting the same team at home, especially when that the team you are facing is winle...