Free Ncaa Basketball Picks - February 20, 2008
2-2-1 yesterday for a slight loss. Today we are back with seven plays. Over the last six weeks we are up 30 units and hitting 58%.
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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:
Game: Drexel at William & Mary (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on William & Mary -4.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Drexel is just 11-16 and 4-11 in conference play. They are shooting 40.9% from the field and scoring just over 60 ppg. On the road it get's worse (58.1 ppg on 40.4%). That spells real trouble when you face a team holding foes to 62.1 ppg and 38.5% shooting as does W&M at home. Drexel is just 2-9 ATS the past two seasons vs. teams with winning records after 15+ games. They are 2-9 ATS as an underdog this year too.
Game: V C U at Northeastern (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Northeastern +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Huskies have turned their season around, as they have now won five of their last six. It is easy to see why. They have held their last six opponents to 109-314 from the field - good for 34.7%. They have also kept the percentage down beyond the arc, at 29.4%, and have out-rebounded opponents by 3.3 boards per game. They are doing better at what VCU has made their own trademark - defense. VCU can play some defense, but their offense is highly suspect as they hit just 43.7%. We have to wonder if they get caught here looking towards a Bracket-Busting showdown at Akron with their comfortable two-game lead over George Mason. Public doesn't think so as they are behind the Rams 70%, but we like the commitment this team is making on the boards and on defense which always keeps you in games. Upset possible.
Game: U T E P at Marshall (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Marshall -3.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
UTEP showed how bad they can be vs. Tulsa on Saturday. In that game, the Miners shot 30.5% and scored just 50 points. They are 3-8 on the road this season, allowing 77.4 ppg. Compare that to the 59.5 Marshall allows at home. It's the main reason the Thundering Herd are 12-2 SU and 5-2 ATS here at home. UTEP is 1-11 ATS this season when the total is posted in the 140s and 1-7 ATS coming off a road game.
Game: Temple at St. Bonaventure (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Temple -7 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Temple meanwhile has covered the spread in nine of their last twelve games as they remain undervalued. Coming off an 11 point loss at Dayton, we again get value on them here against a bad St. Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have lost nine of their last ten games and only covered three of their last nine. No one can stop Dionte Christmas who is averaging 20.2 ppg and 6.3 rpg for the Owls. Temple is 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season and 10-3 ATS when well rested (playing just two games in a week). We like the Owls to win big here.
Game: The Citadel at Georgia Southern (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on The Citadel +18 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Citadel is 0-16 in their last 16 road games, but some changes are noted. Going back to last year and the first half of the 16-game losing streak they were 2-6 ATS, and getting blown-out by 25.8 points per game. Over the last eight they have played on the road shows them at 6-2 ATS, and losing by 15.1 ppg. More importantly they lost to the pointspread by 10.3 ppg in those first eight games, but in the last eight they have won by 5.4 ppg. They have made a 10.7 point improvement on the scoreboard, and 16.1 point improvement against the line. It shows that the odds-makers have not caught up to a team that still isn't winning, has a reputation for losing, but has improved considerably. Georgia Southern is winning at a high rate at home, but is not exactly blowing teams out as their winning margin has been just 7.7 ppg in conference play. Too many points.
Game: U L Lafayette at New Orleans (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on New Orleans -3.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
This game has implications in the Sun Belt and should be hard-fought. ULL has dominated the series between these teams, having won 10 of the last 13 including a 10 point win earlier this season. That spells major revenge motivation in our book for New Orleans. The Privateers have one of the best guards in the country in Bo McCalebb (23.7 ppg, 80 assists and 63 steals). They are riding the momentum from two straight underdog wins and we like their motivation here.
Game: Wisconsin at Illinois (9:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Wisconsin -2 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Badgers sit in a virtual tie atop the Big 10 conference and are playing some tough defense. Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 55.4 ppg. The Badgers’ four losses have come against teams that are a combined 82-20, and all are either ranked or have been ranked. Illinois has had no success at all against the teams in the conference with a .500+ record. They stand at 0-6, with an average losing margin of 8.7 ppg. The Illini are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country hitting just 59.9% on the season and those lost points against a team that is hitting 70%+, don't add up to upset here.
Results: 3-4
NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-19-2008
Davidson is in a class unto itself in the Southern Conference. They are virtually unbeatable on their home-court, where they are 10-0 and winning all ten by double-digits. The average margin has ...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-18-2008
Rick Pitino's boys are healthy, on a charge and find themselves at the top of the Big East. They have rattled off five straight and are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13. They have allowed just 36% shoo...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-17-2008
Georgia Tech has played the No. 16 highest-rated schedule in the country. And although the win column doesn't show it, this team is getting better and is very deep. They have played particularly w...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-16-2008
Kansas has been beating up the teams at home for two years now, and we don't expect that to change here. This season 12 of their 15 home wins have been by 24 or more and all by double-digits. Nine...
NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-15-2008
Harvard enters this one at 1-5 in Ivy play and will likely be without Pat Magnerelli who is their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. Defense has not been in the equation for the Crimson as t...
