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Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Charleston at Furman (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Furman +1.5

Playing Furman on the road has never been easy for Charleston. Last year a Charleston team that was hot, having won four of five games won here by two points. The year before, a 16-9 Charleston team needed OT to win here. The year before that, an 18-7 Charleston team lost here. So the seniors in the program at these two schools have seen this as a tough game. Furman has a better team than they did during those years and after a 7-9 start, they are suddenly 7-3 in their last 10, while playing at a higher level. Always a tough place to play for Charleston to play and this time Furman is peaking at just the right time.

Appalachian State is now 19-4 in their last 23 games. They went into yet another difficult environment and beat Wichita St. 60-58 in a Bracket Buster game. So App, St. has now handled Charleston, beat Davidson on the road, won their Bracket-buster game, and have their RPI in the low 50s. So what is left? An emotional hangover from traveling to Kansas for a Saturday game, then back on the road to W. Carolina for a Monday night contest. It will be easy for App. St. to suffer a huge emotional letdown, especially after already beating this team this year, and having read about how Davidson pounded them by 33 points. W. Carolina only lost by nine points at App. St., now they are home and this is their big chance to have a season-making win. They are catching App. St. at exactly the right time and this game should be a lot closer than most would think.

Sometimes teams just start to come together, when early in the season they were awful. That has been the transformation at Fairfield. A team that started 1-6 in conference games has been 9-2 since! Marist was the pre-season favorite and hasn't disappointed for the most part, but they have been very fortunate on the road. They have been on the brink of 0-6 in their last six road games but have emerged 3-3. They won by a single point at Rider, lost by 10 at Canisius, needed OT at Niagara and Siena to post wins, and lost at Loyola, MD. Fairfield also lost to Wright St. by 10 points coming into conference play. Fairfield is playing better than all these teams right now, and if Marist has struggled in all seven of their last road games, a struggle in this one will equal a loss.

For those that have been with us for awhile, you know we love the barking home dogs, but this is one we absolutely don't like. The situation and what has occurred this season applies directly here. Butler is going to be a big public favorite and this time we agree. Butler is coming off of two straight losses for the first time this season. They lost to two very good basketball teams, both peaking right now. This will be an angry Butler team and it is no place for a dog, especially one that looks good at 16-12, and looks capable of springing the upset, or at least staying close. A look back at this 16-12 team is very revealing. They have amassed a 16 win season without beating any teams with a winning record and two non-division1A opponents. Let's take a look at how they have fared against any team with a winning record. They lost to Loyola, Chi by 17 at home and 19 points on the road. They lost to Wright St. by 11 at home and 11 on the road. They lost to a 16-8 N. Dakota St. team by 12 points at home. They lost to a 15-13 Oakland team by 17 points on the road. They lost to Michigan St. by 12 points and Wisconsin by 19. Last but not least, they lost to Butler by 21 points at Butler. That is nine games vs. teams with winning records, four of which were at home, and they are 0-9. Not only are they 0-9 but they haven't even sniffed a win, as they have dropped all nine games by 11 points or more, an average of 15.2-points per game (PPG) in the nine losses. The nine games they played against teams with winning records they were down at half-time by 15 points or more in seven of them! Wisconsin-GB gives up 43.6% shooting on the season, but 49% to winning teams, and 36.8% from the three-point arc, but 46% to winning teams. This team has feasted on the cupcakes but has been a Thanksgiving Dinner with all the trimmings for the good teams. Butler by plenty!

Kansas has been rolling over everyone lately. That includes a 27-point win over Kansas State at home. They have dominated this Kansas St. team to the tune of 23 straight games in Manhattan, on Kansas St.'s home floor! When Coach Huggins took the job, he took it and said, “Mark down Feb. 19. We will beat Kansas and then we will have a rivalry!” So can they? Can they stay in this game? We think yes to both! Yes Kansas has won every game here for 23 years. They beat Kansas St. at home by 27 points. That game sets this game up perfectly. Kansas St. was coming off of a huge upset win over Texas, while Kansas was coming off of a huge disappointing loss to Texas A&M. A perfect set-up for a blowout and also perfect for adding a few points to this point-spread. Kansas St. beat Kansas on the road last year and has covered each of the last four games at Kansas, until this year. Kansas has covered nine straight here, but it ends tonight. Kansas has beat-up all the teams in the RPI that are in the 70s+. So why does a 23-4 team from a power conference have a 17 RPI? They have struggled against top teams on the road. They lost by 5 points to #40 Texas tech. They lost by seven points to #57 DePaul. Now it is #53 Kansas St. getting five points at home? This is a team that has won at Texas, and lost at A&M by just four points. Can they play with the big boys? You bet!