Ncaa Bracket Predictions - February 18, 2010

We posted a monster day on the college hoops floor yesterday, going 5-1 for +16 units. Last night's performance lifted our college hoops mark to 156-129 for +58 units over the last two and a half months.

Today we fire back with six premium college hoops picks.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	46-29 last 75 picks	61%	+$4060
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	156-129 last 285 picks	55%	+$5780
NBA	28-21 last 49 picks	57%	+$1930
NHL	255-177 last 432 picks	59%	+$15920
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$47590

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Missouri Kansas City at I U P U I (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Missouri Kansas City +14.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

IUPUI squeaked by UMKC by one point in their first meeting last month. Now they are laying 14.5 here? Certainly the home team is the better squad here but this line is too high. UMKC has a winning road record ATS. The only other game this season in which they were given this many points, they covered a 16.5 point spread. The biggest spread IUPUI has faced was 12.5 two games ago. They won that game, but did not cover. UMKC is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. I like the road team and the boat load of points here.

I like these three teams to notch outright wins, so I'm putting them together in a three-team moneyline parlay. The Gators are winning their home games by 12 points per game on average. They get an Auburn team that is just 3-8 on the road and 4-9 vs. winning teams this season. The Tigers are also 2-9 vs. teams that play good defense (42% or worse FG% allowed). Western Kentucky is 11-4 at home and they face a South Alabama squad that is just 1-9 this season vs. winning teams. The Hilltoppers are 17-5 the past three seasons when coming off a double-digit win over a conference rival. That includes an 11-1 mark when coming off back-to-back 10+ point wins. Finally, Cal owns a losing road record, but they are favored here. I think they do get the win. They face Oregon State just can't score. They average 60 points per game on the season and it's getting worse. Over their last five games it's dropped to 54.8. They are just 2-7 the past three seasons vs. teams that score 77+ per game. And, Cal is 9-1 this season as a favorite.

The Waves, once a player in the West Coast Conference, have been diminished to the lower tier for several years. What was bad has become worse as the Waves’ offense has fallen off the face of the Earth. The last four games have seen them score a total of just 206 points, or just 51.5 points per game. The total here is set in the mid 130s, and that will put a lot of pressure on the Portland offense to get into the 80s at least. That will be quite the task for the Pilots. They have not scored more than 74 points in any of their 11 road or neutral-site games this season, and in their eight true road games it has led to a 7-1 UNDER mark. Pepperdine in turn, has played 21 of their last 29 conference games to the UNDER. I'll ride with the UNDER in this one.

The Ragin’ Cajuns had their moment, but overall this is a bad team that played well for a couple of weeks going 7-2, but has subsequently lost two straight. The before and after the little run shows a team with a 4-12 mark, even losing to a non Div-1 team at home. Arkansas State at 15-10 is the better team here. They suffered a lot of early losses to good teams, but they have been 8-3 in the conference over their last 11, and they have played well above the line at 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13. They are also 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. Sun Belt competition. This is a lot of points to lay for a very suspect Ragin’ Cajun team against a pretty solid Arkansas State squad. I'll go with the dog here, so Arkansas State gets the call.

Things have not panned out well for the New Orleans Privateers this season. And as the season has progressed, they have taken the donut both straight-up and ATS in their last seven games. Their most competitive game in this stretch was a 1-point loss to the Warhawks, so they have to be playing inspired that they can steal one here. Those ugly numbers have inflated this pointspread, which for UL Monroe isn't a good spot. Besides lay-down wins vs. Alcorn State and a couple of non Div-1 teams, their wins are revealing in that they have had three by a single point, a pair of others by just 3, and another by just 4, with one win topping this number. This is too big a number for the Warhawks, and the Privateers will hand inside this one, so I’m going with New Orleans here.

California appears to be the best the Pac-10 has to offer this season. The conference does not have a top 25 team, and the talent level is down as low as ever. The Beavers are a Princeton-style offense that doesn't score much, and shortens games. The Beavers are averaging just 53.4 points per game in their last eight games and consequently, have rang the UNDER bell in their last seven in Pac-10 play. Cal has displayed the ability to score, but this will be a frustrating game for them as they managed just 65 at home vs. the Beavers earlier, and the home team does a better job at controlling tempo. The Beavers have played 18 of their last 24 vs. Pac-10 competition to the UNDER. I'll go with this one to stay UNDER the total.

Results: 2-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our NCAA basketball pick here.
• Read our NCAA basketball previous picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our ncaa tournament picks.
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• View our updated college basketball odds lines and spreads.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball blog.
• Here we show our sportsbook reviews college basketball.
• View our updated NCAA basketball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa march madness pick here.
• Here we show our 2009 NCAA basketball picks.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 college basketball preivew here.
• Hop over to our college basketball ATS recrds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-17-2010
There is a price for success in the gambling world and that is becoming more and more evident with each Butler win, now 23-4 and winners of their last 15. This is not your typical bigtime winning team...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-15-2010
Fairfield is 17-8 while Manhattan is just 9-16. Yes, this is nearly a pick-‘em game. The oddsmakers know something and I agree with them that Manhattan could really surprise here. The Stags are ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-14-2010
When these teams met a month ago, Niagara rolled to a 16-point victory. That can lead to complacency when getting the same team at home, especially when that the team you are facing is winle...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-13-2010
The Commodores are out to a 7-2 start in SEC play and are looking like a championship-caliber team, but not so fast. Their last three out of four games have been less than stellar performances with a ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-12-2010
The Penn Quakers take on an unfamiliar role, that of a huge dog in this one. This team was getting steamrolled by everyone early, but has found the win column in the Ivy a few times, and their last tw...