Basketball Gambling Pick - February 18, 2008

2-4 yesterday. Over the last six weeks we are hitting 57% for +26.3 units. We have five picks today and we also debut a new weekly look at the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Here’s your chance to get in on the most fun ways to play the NCAA March Madness pool – by stealing the favs! The cool thing about this pool is that if you take the underdog and your team covers or gets the push your team is out, but you are still in because you will steal the team from your opponent! You will then continue on as that Fav through the rest of the tourney. Sounds like a blast right? Teams will change hands after just about every round in this fast and furious take on the traditional March Madness Pool. Check out this link for all the details and rules.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Syracuse at Louisville (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Louisville -10 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Rick Pitino's boys are healthy, on a charge and find themselves at the top of the Big East. They have rattled off five straight and are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13. They have allowed just 36% shooting in the last five and are currently ranked No. 4 in the country in FG percentage defense. They aren't letting teams beat them deep either as they have allowed 28% from three-point range over the last five as well. The Cards are also getting 10 steals a game to add to opponents woes. Syracuse is just 2-6 against top 50 RPI teams and is coming off a huge emotional win over Georgetown at home and has to muster up the energy to hit the road against what appears to be the Big East's best team. Like Louisville to lay a double-digit loss on Syracuse.

We have two teams going in opposite directions here. Marist has dropped four of their last five, allowing Fairfield to catch them in the league standings. Helping themselves, the Stags are playing their best ball of the season, having won four in a row. Marist's Louie McCroskey is still nursing a sprained ankle which is one reason this team was embarrased in their last outing losing by 19 points as a three point favorite vs. Manhattan. They are giving up 79.2 ppg in their last five. On top of it all, we have a revenge motive for Fairfiled as they lost 77-70 to Marist on January 13th. The Stags are 8-2 ATS seeking revenge this season and we like them as a small home favorite tonight.

Austin Peay has won five straight resulting in a near pickem line in this game. But, let's not forget how this team plays on the road. Whille 11-1 at home, they are just 7-8 on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Governors are just 2-10 ATS on the road vs. teams making 45%+ of their shots after the mid-way point of the season. This season they are 2-8 ATS overall vs. these kinds of good shooting teams. They are also 3-14 ATS the past two seasons in the underdog role. Meanwhile, Tennessee State steps it up vs. the good teams as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. winning opponents this season. Both of these teams can score and this should be an exciting game. But, we like the UNDER. Tennessee State is 25-10 UNDER the past three seasons vs. winning teams. That includes a 9-1 UNDER mark at home vs. teams at 60%+ SU. In other words, vs. the best teams, they step up their defense and underperform relative to points expected. On top of that, they are 10-2 UNDER the past three seasons in high-intensity games (those with a line of -3 to +3). We like the home team and the UNDER.

Much improved Torrero team getting a big dose of points at home against Gonzaga. San Diego went to Gonzaga and found themselves down 12-0 early, fought their way back and out-scored and out-played the Zags the rest of the way on the road. They have since run off seven in a row including an eight-point win over St. Mary's. Everyone has the conference race down to Gonzaga and St. Mary's, but the Torreros are also a one-loss team here and forgotten about. The Zags aren't as bulletproof as they have been in years past having already lost at St. Mary's and escaping in OT over Santa Clara on the road. San Diego has enough to win this one and certainly should hang within a lofty, inflated number at home.

Results: 4-1

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Read our college basketball sportsbook here.
• Check out our updated how to bet college basketball.
• Read our ncaa picks here.
• View our 2007 NCAA basketball preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball Game Preview.
• View 2007 NCAA basketball season picks here.
• Updated today: march madness bracket.
• View our updated NCAA basketball ATS records.
• View blog NCAA basketball picks here.
• Take a look at our free college basketball predictions here.
• Read our NCAA basketball prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball odds lines and spreads.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-17-2008
Georgia Tech has played the No. 16 highest-rated schedule in the country. And although the win column doesn't show it, this team is getting better and is very deep. They have played particularly w...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-16-2008
Kansas has been beating up the teams at home for two years now, and we don't expect that to change here. This season 12 of their 15 home wins have been by 24 or more and all by double-digits. Nine...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-15-2008
Harvard enters this one at 1-5 in Ivy play and will likely be without Pat Magnerelli who is their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. Defense has not been in the equation for the Crimson as t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-14-2008
The Scarlet Knights are clearly in a rebuilding year, but their recent play suggests that they have improved as the season progresses. After suffering five consecutive double-digit losses to open Big ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-13-2008
South Florida's transition into the Big East has been a nightmare. They are just 5-38 SU, and have lost 10 straight this season. They have been awful in this spot as they have posted an 0-8 ATS ma...