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Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Duquense at Fordham (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 160 -110

The battle of wills will again be on display in this contest. Duquense with its up-tempo frenzy ball vs. Fordham's methodical half-court sets. Who wins this battle? The answer lies in what happened last time out for Duquense when facing Richmond. Richmond spread the floor and made it impossible for Duquense to trap successfully. The most telling stat in that game was the fact Duquense only attempted 41 shots the entire game. That is down considerably from their frenzy ball average. The spread offense worked so well that Duquense abandoned frenzy ball and actually went to a 1-3-1 zone in the second half. They scored just 61 points. Fordham is very similar offensively to Richmond. The last thing they want to do is get in a track meet with Duquense. Richmond, in their eight lowest scoring games of the season averaged 111.9 ppg. Fordham's eight lowest averaged 103.4 ppg. So, Fordham is actually more of a slow-down team than is Richmond (and Richmond kept Duquense WAY down). The other-end of the spectrum shows Richmond averaging 141 ppg in its seven highest totals of the season while Fordham high-scoring games averaged 141.1 ppg. Fordham actually does a better job at slowing the tempo than Richmond. It would certainly be a tactical error for Fordham to allow Duquense to employ their frenzy ball style, which was beating just about everyone, especially now that there is a blueprint to stop it. The public will bet this total up, as they already have. This one opened at 156.5, and is already sitting at 160! Wait till close to game-time as it climbes and play this one UNDER.

Ohio State is rolling having won ten straight. Minnesota has lost four in a row and nine of their last eleven. As a result of this, we get line value on Minnesota. But who is really playing better, relative to the spread? Ohio State has lost four of their last seven ATS while Minnesota has covered five of seven. The Buckeyes have coverd the spread just once in their last five games when laying over eight points. Minnesota always plays Ohio State tough at home and they are playing with revenge here, having lost two weeks ago by 14. Ohio State has lose 22 of their last 32 ATS on the road after four consecutive wins. Minnesota meanwhile is 24-10 ATS at home after failing to cover two of their last three. We'll take the generous points on the home dog here.

This will be the first game since for the Illini since two Illinois players were involved in a car accident, sidelining them both with concussions. That is an emotional event for college-age kids and it may be difficult to focus with a lackluster opponent in Northwestern coming in. It will also disrupt a short rotation and make it shorter, as Illinois will be using seven players that have contributed. They havehave lost an 8-ppg scorer and their best free-throw shooter. Northwestern lost to Illinois at home by 15. The bottom-line for this team, if they hit a reasonable amount of 3's they stay in the game and if not, they are in trouble. They hit a season low 3-for-18 vs. Illinois in that 15 point loss while Illinois was hitting 41%. It wasn't a question of getting open looks for Northwestern, as they shot 58.3% from inside the arc! They solved the Illinois defense, but just had a horrible shooting night. If they hit just a reasonable percentage of those 18 three-pointers, the game goes to the wire. Illinois has won Big 10 games by 10, 7, 8, 4, and 11 points at home, and has no business laying this many, especially in a game destined for the 50s. Northwestern does not turn the ball over as they have committed eight turnovers or less in five of their last nine games and have covered four of last five as a double digit dog. Versus common opponents this season, Northwestern is 5-4 ATS while Illinois is just 2-6 ATS. This is just too many points in a game low-scorign game, with the distractions facing this Illinois team. Illinois has gone UNDER in six straight games which is the main reason we see this total set so low. This won't be a barn-burner but we do see it going over this extremely low total.

No we haven't gone mad! We like Arizona State here despite them losing 15 in a row and sporting a winless Pac-10 record. Yes, USC just beat Oregon and is coming off a big win at Arizona. I guess we can start off by saying we had Arizona State in their last game at home to UCLA. They led that game 49-41 midway through the second half, but fell at the end yet still got the cover. The most notable part of that game is the six point loss, was the largest margin of defeat they have suffered in their last five games, and two of those were on the road, one at Oregon. There is value on this team right now as demonstrated by 70% of the public jumping on the visiting Trojans here. It is hard for an odds-maker to not pad a point-spread for a team that is winless in their last 15 games so their is no question which side holds the value. The past 11 games, Arizona State is 0-11 SU but is 7-4 ATS! That speaks volume for the value losing gives to investing on a poor team. Yes, they are poor in record, but have been improving steadily. Take a look. They lost to 23-3 UCLA by 6points, 22-4 Washington State by 1, 20-7 Oregon by 5 at home, and 4 on the road. USC is coming off of three consecutive huge games vs UCLA, Oregon, and an upset win at Arizona just two nights ago. We will back the barking home dog in this one.