Ncaa Bracket Picks - February 16, 2008

We went 2-1 last night and today have seven picks...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Colorado at Kansas (1:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas -25 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 135 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Kansas has been beating up the teams at home for two years now, and we don't expect that to change here. This season 12 of their 15 home wins have been by 24 or more and all by double-digits. Nine of the 15 have been by 30+. We saw the same thing last season. Their mark the past two seasons in conference play against the sub-.500 teams shows an average winning margin of 27.1 points per game, and this season they are 9-2 ATS to a line of 18+. Colorado is 0-17 on the road in conference play over the past two+ seasons. The Jayhawks have Oklahoma State and Iowa State on deck, so no look ahead here and a 30-point win is in order. Kansas is 9-5 OVER at home this season, thanks to 87.4 ppg. They are 12-4 OVER the past two seasons vs. teams that hit 45%+ from the field (Colorado is hitting 45.3%) including 9-0 OVER after 15+ games. The Jayhawks are also a perfect 13-0 OVER vs. conference opponents the past two seasons. We like the Jayhawks and the OVER here.

The Aggies have been a remarkable 49-4 on their home court the past three seasons. Over the past two years, which includes this season, they are 33-2, and in those 35 games they have won 29 of them by double-digits (82.8%) to out-score their opponents by 777 points in the 35 games, or by 22.2 points per game! They have won 27 of the 35 games by 14 or more (77.1%). They are on a serious roll right now winning seven straight and the defense has been absolutely halting opponents. The last six teams they have played have not been able to do anything offensively against A&M. Texas Tech averages 69.8 and scored 59, Texas averages 76.9 and scored 43, Nebraska averages 68.6 and scored 55, Missouri averages 79.2 and scored 51, Baylor averages 81.2 and scored 60 and Oklahoma State averages 70.2 and scored 44. They have held their last six opponents to 22 ppg less than their season average! No, this isn't because they are slowing games down it is because these teams have shot a combined 106-291 or 36.4%, and 25-87 or 28.7% from three-point range. They are simply locking everyone down. Oklahoma State has not won a true road game in their last 18 tries. They are a horrible road team and have been for three years now. They rank No. 11 in rebounding in the Big-12, meaning their second chance opportunities against a team that plays in-your-face defense will be minimized. The Aggies are rolling and this appears to be a 20-point game from here.

Neither of these teams lights up the scoreboard but we see enough points this afternoon for this to go over the low total of 121. Iowa State scores 65.9 ppg at home while Nebraska allows 71 per game on the road. So, the Cyclones will get their's. The Huskers are off an upset loss at home to Missouri and Nebraska is 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games off an upset loss to a conference rival.

Texas comes to Waco as an underdog for the first time in memory. They are off their bigget win of the season - a hard fought game vs Kansas. As a result, they could be ripe for the taking here. Baylor has risen to the elite in the Big-12 and actually had Texas on the ropes on the road exactly two weeks ago before losing out in the end. Baylor, at 17-6, already has signature win at A&M and a win here tonight could all but punch their ticket into the big dance. Texas has had some breakdowns on the road, as indicated by 17 point loss at A&M, 13 point loss at Missouri, an OT escape at Iowa State and 2 point squeaker at Oklahoma State. The Bears have their best team in years, and we like their chances here, especially with Texas struggling on the road and coming off a huge emotional win vs Kansas.

Two Atlantic 10 bottom-dwellers clash at the Reily Center. Here we are going to fade the road team. George Washington has dropped eight of their last nine games and they haven't won a road game in ten tries. They are averaging just 59.9 ppg on the road while allowing 20 more (79.9 per game). The Bonnies allow 70 ppg at home while scoring 72.8. They have a winning home record. The Colonials are just 6-15 ATS over the past two seasons as an underdog and they are 1-7 ATS as a road dog or pick this season. They are also 2-11 ATS the past three seasons in the second of back-to-back road games. Bonnies here.

Marshall has won 11 of 13 games here at home this season. They are holding foes to just 59.9 ppg here. Tulane has a very good defense at home, but on the road it is average. They had won five in a row, mostly against weak competition (Rice twice, SMU) before losing their last two vs. UTEP and Houston. Marshall has won two straight and need to keep winning at home to stay within reach in the Conference USA standings.

Results: 1-6

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Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-15-2008
Harvard enters this one at 1-5 in Ivy play and will likely be without Pat Magnerelli who is their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. Defense has not been in the equation for the Crimson as t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-14-2008
The Scarlet Knights are clearly in a rebuilding year, but their recent play suggests that they have improved as the season progresses. After suffering five consecutive double-digit losses to open Big ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-13-2008
South Florida's transition into the Big East has been a nightmare. They are just 5-38 SU, and have lost 10 straight this season. They have been awful in this spot as they have posted an 0-8 ATS ma...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-12-2008
Butler manhandled this Wisconsin-Milwaukee team a few weeks ago and we expect nothing short of that tonight. The Panthers were held to 19 points at the half and could do nothing against the Butler def...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-11-2008
The Wildcats were cruising along with an 11-2 mark. Then Casiem Drummond went down with an injury and they have not been the same team since. The Wildcats have dropped seven of their last 11, and have...