Basketball Free Gambling Ncaa Pick - February 14, 2009

We dropped our pick last night. Today we are off and running early on the college hoops board with five selections including three 4-unit picks. Over the last five weeks, our CBB picks are hitting 57%, 55-42 for +15.1 units.

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Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Fordham at Xavier (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Fordham +29 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

There comes a time when the value on a team is extended beyond the reasonable, and such is the case here. The last time Fordham was posted as a 20+ dog they almost won outright at Dayton, losing by one. There is no doubt that Xavier is the better team in this one, but how much energy are they going to expend against a bad team like Fordham? Xavier has won two games big in A-10 play, where they jumped out big at the half, and then coasted with bench players. Their starters logged 127 minutes in one, and just 111 in the other, so they aren't going to be interested in blowing this team out. There are way too many points here, so I'm going with Fordham.

The streak of futility continues for Southeast Missouri State. They have dropped 14 in a row and haven't won on the road since January 5, of last year at Eastern Illinois. That is where the bad news ends. From a betting perspective, this is a good team and that record presents a lot of value on them. The Redhawks are 8-3 ATS on the road in their last 11 as a double-digit dog. Morehead State is a nifty 10-1 on their home court, but has not been asked to cover more than 10 points all season. This team has been a +18 point dog on the season and is now a -18 favorite. I’m not sure if any team in the country has had that wide a swing. The Eagles have been no-shows against the teams that are .400 or below, as they are a woeful 1-6 ATS against the poor teams. I will go with SEMST here that looks bad in the loss column, but great where it counts the most, getting the money!

The Aggies have played soft in their non-conference schedule and opened at 14-1. A different picture is emerging as Big-12 play has ensued, as they are just 3-6. That 3-6 mark includes 0-4 on the Big-12 road. This isn't the same Aggie team we have seen the last two years, and it is showing up now that Big-12 play has begun - especially on the road. Baylor has dropped six straight games, but when you consider the three that were home were all against the top three teams in the conference, they will be ready to rebound in this one. They also have a score to settle for the loss on the road to the Aggies. I will take Baylor at home, on the moneyline here.

Rice has really had some offensive problems this season. They have already played 11 games where they failed to score more than 60 points. That has led to 11 of their last 15 games playing to the UNDER. In their last 26 as a road dog, they have played 20 of the 26 to the UNDER. On the road against superb teams, they go UNDER. They are 24-8 to the UNDER vs. winning teams. It is easy to understand when you have just one double-digit scorer and your top three scorers are all shooting below 40% on the season. East Carolina has been playing a lot of overs on the season, but with one exception. They have played UNDER in eight of their last 11 as a home favorite. With most of the same personnel, these teams have met here in each of the last two years and produced 109, and 111 points in the two meetings. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

The Runnin’ Rebels aren't doing much running as they have scored in the 70s or less in 17 of their last 18 games. Outside of Air Force, who has yet to sniff a win in conference action, the Rebs’ have just one game all season where they have won by more than this, and that was against Texas Pan American way back in mid-November. Colorado State already took UNLV to the buzzer on their court, so a 20-point turnaround, especially based on what the Rebs’ have done this year, sure doesn't seem to fit the bill. I'll grab the Rams and the bushel of points in this one.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our 2008 season NCAA basketball betting preview here.
• View our updated college basketball sports book reviews.
• Check out 2008 NCAA basketball prior pick results here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy.
• View our college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball blog.
• View free NCAA basketball picks here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball lines here.
• Check out ncaa tournament picks here.
• View college basketball ATS recrds here.
• Read our march madness picks here.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball prior predictions.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-13-2009
If you haven't been paying attention, Villanova may be playing better than anyone in the country right now. They have four losses, but a closer look is quite revealing. They lost to Texas when the...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-12-2009
The Bulls may have tipped their hand when they took UConn to the wire before losing a four-point decision. They have now won eight straight, and are playing even better. The Eagles appear to have quit...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-11-2009
This one might better be deemed as the tortoise vs the hare. Richmond, in their last ten games has played to totals posted in the 130s or less nine times and none as high as this one, while Duquense h...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-10-2009
This may not be a vintage Kent State team, but they are definitely improving, as they have won three straight, and cashed their last four. That includes impressive road wins at Western Michigan and Ba...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-08-2009
NC State is 12-8 overall but that hides the fact that they are just 2-5 in ACC play. The Hokies haven't played in February yet and have been itching to get back on the court after a tough 1 point ...