Ncaa Tournament Predictions - February 14, 2008

1-4 last night. Seven CBB plays today, including a 4-unit selection from a stacked card. Over the last six weeks we are up 47.4 units and are winning at 59%.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Rutgers at West Virginia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Rutgers +18 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Scarlet Knights are clearly in a rebuilding year, but their recent play suggests that they have improved as the season progresses. After suffering five consecutive double-digit losses to open Big East play, Rutgers has been much more competitive. They beat Villanova at home, won on the road convincingly at Pittsburgh, suffered a pair of OT losses and were edged by DePaul on the road by two points, representing their play in five of the last six games. The Mountaineers came out of the gate strong opening at 10-1, but have not been nearly as good since as they have been just 6-6. Their last five games shows an escape at home to lowly Marshall by two, a home loss to Georgetown and a 23-point drubbing at home agaisnt Cincinnati. They also claim a loss on the road to Pittsburgh and a win over Providence. A team that averaged winning in their first 10 wins by 31.9 points per game, has suddenly won only once by this pointspread since. Too many points and we will back Rutgers here.

Butler has worked their way to a 20-2 season and has not lost at home. The odds-makers really put the heat on them if you want to back them. The Bulldogs have covered just three conference games this season.  As good as they have been, they have not beaten a conference foe by this many points all season. They have some unfinished business, and that applies to their next game as they will be focused on avenging their loss to Cleveland State and two games down the road they have a chance to avenge their other loss to Wright State. Other than that, Butler really does not have anything to play for. Youngstown State is not a good team, but what they have done is play hard, and stay in games. Their last five road games have seen them stay within single-digits in four of the five, and the biggest loss has been by 14. Don't see the Bulldogs bringing their "A" game to this one, so we will take the points here.

The Ramblers were just 5-11 through 16 games, and two of the wins were over non-Division IA programs, two in OT, and a win over 4-20 Eastern Illinois -  certainly not much of a resume. They have now won three of four over much better teams. They may not be the same team as a year ago when they started winning late, but certainly a much improved team. Wright State has won eight in a row now and is red-hot. However, they have only covered in three of them! The reason is that six of those wins have come by 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, and three points. They are winning all of their close games and with the Ramblers playing much better, and having a one-point game against Wright State earlier, when they weren't as good, gives us good confidence they will be close here.

The Blue Raiders certainly didn't get off to a good start at 4-9, but this team has really come together, and is playing with confidence. They are now 7-3 over their last 10, and have also covered 8 of their last 12. The Jaguars have had a remarkable season, and have just one blemish, a 2 point loss at North Texas. All that remains is next week's game vs W. Kentucky which will undoubtedly be for the conference championship, and with that on the horizon, the Jags could get caught here. The Blue Raiders have been tough in this sot, as they have been 8-2 ATS vs teams with a road winning percentage of .600+. We think Middle Tennessee has a chance to win this one at home, so we will grab the points.

The Hornets have just four wins to show for their work this season. It looks difficult to back them, but consider this. As bad as they have been, they have been perfect in their last five covering the lofty pointspreads of 16+, at 5-0. It has not been the kind of year for the Grizzlies as anticipated. They were supposed to win the Big Sky, but find themselves at 11-12, and just 5-5 in the conference. They are also just 5-4 at home, with two of the wins over non-Division IA programs. They have been double-digit favorites three times this season, and have failed to cover in all three. Like the Hornets here to stay within the number.

At 8-15 the Aggies have just one road win on the season and haven't shown much, but what they have shown is they can play conference road games and be more competitive than this number as they have suffered just one loss that would say they can't. Cal-Fullerton has yet to win a game at home in the conference by this many points. It is hard to back a team that is this heavy of a favorite when they themselves have been a dog of as many as 14.5. It just shows the inflated price one must pay in a game that looks lopsided, but the results seldom turn out that the value resides with the favorite. We will take the Aggies and the hefty points in this contest.

Sometimes the whole is not equal to the sum of its parts. The Bengals, at 9-14 certainly don't appear to be doing much, but their early-season schedule has a great influence on the overall picture. A team that has played way over its head in terms of schedule as they have losses to Iowa, BYU, Oregon State, Boise State, UCLA, Wash State, Utah and Washington. They are actually 9-6 against teams they are on a similar level with. They have been out-scored by 10 ppg on the season, but by just one point per in the 15 games they weren't way over their head. Portland State has won six straight, but the difference between these two teams just isn't what it appears, so we will ride the dog here.

Results: 3-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated NCAA basketball sportsbook reviews.
• View our NCAA basketball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Updated today: march madness picks.
• Here we show our 2007 NCAA basketball preview.
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• Here we show our 2007 NCAA basketball prior picks results.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Read our college basketball ATS standings here.
• Updated today: blog NCAA basketball picks.
• View our college basketball free picks here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball picks here.
• Take a look at our college basketball odds here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-13-2008
South Florida's transition into the Big East has been a nightmare. They are just 5-38 SU, and have lost 10 straight this season. They have been awful in this spot as they have posted an 0-8 ATS ma...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-12-2008
Butler manhandled this Wisconsin-Milwaukee team a few weeks ago and we expect nothing short of that tonight. The Panthers were held to 19 points at the half and could do nothing against the Butler def...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-11-2008
The Wildcats were cruising along with an 11-2 mark. Then Casiem Drummond went down with an injury and they have not been the same team since. The Wildcats have dropped seven of their last 11, and have...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-10-2008
Saint Joseph’s is playing well as Phil Martelli has once again put together a solid team, but this by far will be the toughest road test of the season for the Hawks. Xavier has been punishing al...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-09-2008
Duke played a big-time game last time out going to Chapel Hill and coming away with an impressive win over North Carolina. Duke really has it going, but after such an emotionally charged win over its ...