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Basketball Pick - February 13, 2010Our 5-unit picks are hitting 68% at 98-46 across college hoops, NBA and NHL on the season. Today we feature a pair of 5-unit picks from the college hoops floor. We brought home another winning CBB night as we went 2-1. Last night's endeavor included an ATS winner on Penn's upset of Cornell as +17-point dog. We go with nine premium picks today including a pair of 5-unit picks. Over the last two and a half months, we are 145-121 in college baskets for +48 units.
 Today's NCAA Basketball Picks: The Commodores are out to a 7-2 start in SEC play and are looking like a championship-caliber team, but not so fast. Their last three out of four games have been less than stellar performances with a pair of losses and a 3-point win. They are off a huge emotional game vs. Tennessee who they beat handily. Now with lowly LSU coming in, it’s time for a breather. The Tigers are in off a pair of stinkers where they were blown out playing their worst two games of the season, causing a spike in the line, so I would expect a much better effort here. Four of the SEC losses have come by 10 points or less, so the last two aren't the norm, but have boosted the number here. The Commodores are not playing up to their level against lousy teams at just 3-7 ATS vs. .400 teams or worse. The numbers say LSU here.Game: Nebraska at Texas (4:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +14 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Texas got out of the gate at 17-0 and earned a No. 1 ranking, and looked like the team to beat in the tournament, but their fortunes have taken an about face. The Horns haven't been hookin’ anyone of late, and 17-0 has become 2-5. Neither of the wins were strong enough to take down the huge number placed on this one. This is a team that has covered just one of their last 11 games, and is playing like a mid-major right now, not a No. 1 team. This Nebraska team is playing well enough to have gone into Kansas and played the Jayhawks, who are playing very well, to an 11-point game. This one is set too high, especially with Texas reeling with lack of confidence right now. I'll go Nebraska here.Game: Iowa at Purdue (4:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Iowa +20 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) The Boilermakers are a good candidate to be a Final Four team, but the one thing this team doesn't do is score a lot of points. They’ve touched 80 points just once in their last 12 games and with a total set in the 120s here, and looking at a number just shy of 20, it will be hard to push this one into a 20+ point win. The Hawkeyes are down, and play slow to shorten games. In their last 11 games, no team has topped the 71-point mark against them, so looking at the likelihood of 60s winning this one at best I see a lot of value in taking inflated number here that may be unapproachable. I'll go with Iowa here.Game: Air Force at B Y U (6:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Air Force +23.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Air Force made a good run a few years ago, but is back to their losing ways. Those losing ways amount to a Princeton-style offense predicated on back door cuts, and a lot of 3's, but more importantly using a lot of the shot clock. It is hard to put up big offensive numbers against this team, so looking at a gigantic spread even as good as BYU is, this number will be tough to catch up to. The Air Force lost 17 consecutive games a year ago, and has added 14 more losses this year, but the low-scoring nature of this team and style, shows just two losses by 24+. Facing big numbers has led to the Air Force standing in at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog and I like them in this one. Air Force gets the call.Game: Colorado at Kansas State (6:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Colorado +14.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Buffalos are having problems winning games in the Big-12, but no trouble staying in them. Their last three conference road games show a 17-point total deficit, or less than 6 per game. Kansas State recorded numerous blowout wins at home vs. a cupcake pre-conference schedule, but has actually dropped two straight at home, and going back three games, just a 9-point home win. The Buffs may be winless on the road, but are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, getting the money with high frequency. The Wildcats have become “Mildcats” vs. lousy teams. Kansas State is just 4-14 ATS vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. I'll go with Colorado in this one.Game: Harvard at Brown (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Harvard -10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) This is a Harvard team that is in the hunt for the Ivy Title, but is well above the typical Ivy team, having won on the road at BC and taking UConn to the wire also on the road. They had a close call at Yale last night, which should serve as a wakeup call, so I expect their "A" game tonight, especially after a disappointing 2-point loss last year vs. the Bears. The Bears are having all sorts of problems this season, and the wins have been few and far between. They just haven't been able to stay in games vs. the better teams. They stand at just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a home dog, and I don't see much that stands in the way of making that 1-8 vs. what should be a motivated and good Harvard team. Harvard gets the comfortable win here.Game: Tennessee at Kentucky (9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Tennessee +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) This is a great opportunity for the Volunteers to get back in the national limelight vs. a Kentucky team that has suffered just one loss, but has had many close calls. The Wildcats have seen seven of their games decided inside of 10 points, and could easily have a few more losses. It is a young team, with a boatload of talent. When you look at the games they have had vs. Tennessee-like competition, they have usually been in a game and I expect the best effort from Tennessee here. The Vols have worn the dog hat well at 4-1-1 ATS in their last six, while the Wildcats sit at just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record, and just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 vs. the SEC. I like Tennessee to stay close and get the cover.Game: Eastern Carolina at U T E P (9:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Eastern Carolina +22 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) UTEP is putting together one of their best seasons in a longtime entering at 18-5, but with that comes a big price tag, and are posted here over the 20-point mark. While they managed to beat some real soft teams early by huge margins, conference play has not shown that capability. They have five conference home wins by margins of 4, 4, 7, 7 and 13 points, so the explosive blowout wins early, just aren’t part of the wins now. What might be more on their mind is their date at Tulsa in the next game that has major C-USA Title implications. They will be spending a lot of energy here to push a 23+ point win, which just isn't in the cards. I'll go with East Carolina here.Game: San Diego at Gonzaga (10:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on San Diego +17.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) Gonzaga has ruled the roost for so long in the West Coast Conference, it is impossible to find any value on them. They just took care of their biggest competitor - St. Mary's by 19 points, beating them for the second time this year, and essentially wrapping things up in the conference. They will be hard-pressed to play with the same energy here and although a win is in order, I expect that they don't dismantle this team with their "A" game, but just win. The Bulldogs have played their last tough game until conference tourney time, so a less than stellar effort here is certainly likely. I'll go with San Diego in this one. Results: 3-6 NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters: NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-12-2010 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-11-2010 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-10-2010 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-09-2010 NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-08-2010 |
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