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Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Kentucky at Tennessee (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tennessee -3

You can bet this is a marked game on the Tennessee schedule. They lost the last two to Kentucky at home and dropped one earlier this year in Kentucky. Kentucky is coming off a highly emotional game vs. Florida and if they come out flat, this one will be over early. Lofton is back for Tennessee and he is definitely a difference-maker. Tennessee is 13-0 at home, hitting 48% from the floor and 40% from beyond the arc. They scores 87.5 ppg here. Kentucky has had problems with high scoring teams as they don't have the firepower to get into a shootout. They have gone 5-13 ATS vs. teams that score 77+ the last two years. Tennessee will be playing with revenge in a building where they have gone 35-19 ATS revenging a road loss. Tennessee wins this one big.

A young Georgia Tech team takes to the road fresh off a win over UCONN. Florida St.te, at 17-8, is fighting for an NCAA bid as is Tech. Thus this game will offer a very large benefit to the winner. Georgia Tech is a young team that has not yet learned how to win on the road . They have been beaten by a poor Wake Forest team by 10, Maryland by 15, NC by 16, Vandy by 9, and Miami by 8. Florida State has struggled on the road, but have been a very tough out at home. They own wins over top ranked Flaorida, Maryland by 17, Providence by 30, Va Tech by 9, and Miami by 19. This should be a run and gun type of game and we look for this one to play in the high 70s or 80s. Three of the last four in this matchup have gone OVER including the last two played here in Florida. We will play both Florida State and the OVER.

Looking at this game from the surface it would appear to be set for a low scoring game. There are some prevailing factors though that dictate otherwise. These teams have a long history of playing games much above this low total. The last eight between these two have averaged 148 ppg! There has only been one instance where the final was less than this posted total (but barely at 123). Oklahoma has outscored its opponents by 12+ a game this season and Iowa State has played OVER the total in 16 of 20 versus such high-powered teams. This game looks much more likely to be heading toward 140, so we will play the OVER.

UNLV has poised itself for the NCAA tournament with a 21-5 record while San Diego State is making a serious run at 17-7, having won four straight. San Diego State is playing their best basketball of the season. They have won consecutive games as an underdog and that includes a 21-point home win vs a very good Air Force team. UNLV has struggled against very good teams. They shot just 36% at home vs. this same SDSU team, 35% against Air Force on the road, and 36% at BYU. How has San Diego State played with momentum under Fisher? They are 24-7 ATS after a win by 15+ points! San Diego shoots 50% at home and at 75% from the charity stripe can put a game away late if close. San Diego wins this one, keepingtheir NCAA hopes alive and well.