Ncaa Tournament Picks - February 11, 2009

We missed our solo play last night, however we are still shooting 59% at 52-36 for 26.1 units over the last month. Tonight we have five premium plays, including one 4 unit.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Duquense at Richmond (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 150.0 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

This one might better be deemed as the tortoise vs the hare. Richmond, in their last ten games has played to totals posted in the 130s or less nine times and none as high as this one, while Duquense has played to totals in the 140s or higher in all but one game. We look to last year when these teams met and Duquense had played 17 games, with all of them with a posted total of higher than the Richmond game and on their own court, were slowed down to 66 points. Now Richmond has an even better chance of slowing down the Dukes on their home-court this time, where the home team mostly has their way with tempo. These teams have played each of the last four under, and I don't see that changing here. UNDER gets the call.

The Razorbacks have been highly competitive at home on the season, but when they take to the road it has been a completely different story. They have just a two point win at S. Alabama to show for the season on the road and have lost by nine or more otherwise. Tigers off solid win at home vs Tennessee and have been much better than the preseason polls that had them buried in the conference indicated. They have been solid at home with a 12-3 mark and went on the road and soundly thrashed this same Razorback team by 22. Can't see a Razorback team that has one close win to show for the season on the road and getting hammered everywhere else to come in here and get a win, so I'm grabbing the Tigers here on the moneyline.

Texas Tech has dropped back down after Bobby Knight breathed some life back in the program. The Red Raiders have taken the collar on the road this season at 0-7. The Wildcats have been coming up huge on the defensive end all season at home, allowing just 60.9ppg in their 13 home games. They even held #2 ranked Oklahoma to its lowest point total of the season here, 61. They also held nationally ranked Missouri to 72, a team that has been over 80 on 17 occasions this season already. This one is just too high for a team that plays defense first in the Wildcats vs a road team that has not proved it can do much away from home. This one goes UNDER.

This game gets annual hype, and this year is no different, as the Tar Heels and Devils are once again in a fight for the ACC Title. It's a battle of offense vs defense as the Devils have not allowed a single team all season to score more than 79 points on their home floor and nine opponents have not gotten out of the 50s. Carolina has scored 80+ in every road game so what gives here, the offense or the defense? The answer is the venue. The last six years these teams have played to a higher total points scored when played at North Carolina where they have averaged 161ppg, but when played at Duke they have averaged 144.8ppg. Carolina, with the same team, came to Duke last year and scored 76 after averaging 89 in their previous five ACC games. The home team usually controls the tempo, as seen from the history here, and Duke has played 18-5 to the under in their last 23 home games. This one stays UNDER.

Long Bach had some tough games early on the road, but since Big West play began they have been grabbing the money as they are 6-3-1 ATS and 2-0 when posted as a dog. They are tough to defend with the top five scorers averaging nine+ points per game. Highlanders have a similar record on the season, but their out of conference schedule was amongst the worst in the nation so their record points to a team that isn't as good as the numbers make them look. Outside of Kyle Austin, and his 16ppg, the Highlanders have no one averaging in double figures. They have no one on the team with more than 52 assists on the season and they have a negative turnover to assist ratio. Long Beach has covered six of the last seven vs Riverside, and I like them to extend that to seven of eight here.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2008 NCAA basketball handicapping preview.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball sportsbooks here.
• View 2008 NCAA basketball prior picks here.
• Read our NCAA basketball betting approach here.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Here we show our NCAA basketball blog.
• Check out NCAA basketball picks here.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball lines and odds here.
• Updated today: ncaa tournament picks.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA basketball ATS records.
• Don't forget to visit our march madness pick.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA basketball previous picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-10-2009
This may not be a vintage Kent State team, but they are definitely improving, as they have won three straight, and cashed their last four. That includes impressive road wins at Western Michigan and Ba...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-08-2009
NC State is 12-8 overall but that hides the fact that they are just 2-5 in ACC play. The Hokies haven't played in February yet and have been itching to get back on the court after a tough 1 point ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-07-2009
Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-05-2009
Early on, Michigan looked to be a young team on the rise as they recorded wins over UCLA and Duke. They then jumped out to a 3-1 mark in the Big-10 and looked to be a serious contender. Then the wheel...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-04-2009
The Michigan State Spartans stand alone at the top of the Big-10 standings at 7-2. Minnesota sits just a notch below at 6-3, along with three other teams. The Spartans have suffered just four losses o...