Free Picks College Basketball - February 07, 2009

We passed on last night's college hoops board. Today we pick up in the midst of our month-long run. During that time we are 47-32, for 59% winning (+26.5 units). We feature a stacked card of seven college hoops plays including a 5-unit pick.

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Arkansas at Mississippi State (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arkansas +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven’t managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.

The Thundering Herd is really going south as they have now dropped four straight, and six of seven. It is hard to trust them in this spot. They have been one of the worst pointspread teams in the process as they are just 4-11-1 against the number on the season. The Green Wave is getting no respect here as they are 1-7 on the road this season, but four of those were over Auburn, George Mason, Texas, and UAB, so not as bad as it looks. The Herd has not covered as a home favorite in their last seven tries, and this is not the spot where that is going to change. Tulane gets the call.

Harvard had a two-game stretch where they played way over their head against Santa Clara and Boston College and have been highly over-valued since. The proof is in the before and after. Harvard did not cover a single game before their win over Santa Clara, nor have they covered one since their win over Boston College. The Crimson are 0-8-1 ATS outside of those two games. While the wins haven't been there for the Bruins, the close games have as they have. They dropped games by two points twice, a game by just three and a six-point loss. Outside of Cornell, the Ivy king pin, the Bruins have stayed in every game, and I expect the same here against an overrated Crimson team. I like Brown and the points here.

The Xavier Musketeers graduated a lot of key ingredients from their recent success, but hasn't skipped a beat. They play a sticky defense and have only allowed two teams all season to reach 75 points against them. Consequently, they will typically play to low totals. They have only been involved with two games all season with a total of 141 or higher and both finished UNDER. Duquesne loves to push the ball, but if you go back to last year when they met the X-Men's defense, that same offense that scored 80+ in 17 games, managed just 48 points! It takes two teams putting up points to get to the 150s, and the X-Men just aren't as accommodating as most. This one goes UNDER.

The Ragin’ Cajuns haven't been much of a rage in the win column on the road, but they sure have played a few good teams tough. They own a two-point loss at LSU, and dropped a decision to always tough Western Kentucky by just five. The Eagles have surrounded a four-game winning streak with some really awful play as they dropped five straight prior, and have now dropped three straight after. This is a very inconsistent team that can't be trusted laying points as they have managed just one cover as a favorite all season. The opposite is true for the Cajuns. Despite the difficulty getting in the win column, they are killing the oddsmakers when posted as a dog by beating the number in that role in 16 of their last 22. We have a live dog here! LA-Lafayette gets the call.

The Warhawks have been going to war on the road with pop-guns. They have managed just one win in 12 tries. Once again we gain the value of a team that doesn’t win, but lines their backers with gold. The Warhawks, despite their losing ways, have been 8-4 ATS which includes covering four of their last six on the road. The Privateers have recorded three freebies in the win column against non-D1 schools, so they are a bit over-valued with inflated win column. The truth reads 7-13 against Division 1 opponents. That might help to explain their inability to cover as a small favorite of from 1-6.5 where they are just 1-6 ATS. The numbers tell the wrong story, but looking inside them paints a different picture, so Louisiana-Monroe gets the call here.

The Pioneers have gone deep into the season looking for their first road win as they have laid an egg in the win column in their first 10 tries. That extends the length of value you find, as who wants to back a team that is 0-10 Su on the road. The hidden secret here is this team has covered nine of their last 10 games including their last five on the road. The Trojans are also flying high with six covers in their last seven and 7-1 SU in their last eight. The numbers look impressive, but where they matter the most is against the number. The Trojans are falling very short at home as they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Denver's 0-10 looks ugly, but the grade here is ATS where they come up aces and the Trojans come up short. Denver gets the money in this one.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our 2008 college basketball handicapping preivew here.
• Check out college basketball sportsbook reviews here.
• View 2008 NCAA basketball pick season results here.
• Check out our updated how to bet NCAA basketball.
• Hop over to our college basketball Game Analysis here.
• Take a look at our blog NCAA basketball here.
• Hop over to our sports handicapping NCAA basketball picks here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball lines and odds.
• View march madness brackets here.
• View our updated NCAA basketball against-the-spread records.
• View our updated march madness pick.
• Take a look at our NCAA basketball record here.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-05-2009
Early on, Michigan looked to be a young team on the rise as they recorded wins over UCLA and Duke. They then jumped out to a 3-1 mark in the Big-10 and looked to be a serious contender. Then the wheel...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-04-2009
The Michigan State Spartans stand alone at the top of the Big-10 standings at 7-2. Minnesota sits just a notch below at 6-3, along with three other teams. The Spartans have suffered just four losses o...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-03-2009
The Florida Gators are running perfect at home on the season at 13-0. A bit misleading by the fact that six of the games were unlined and against cupcakes, and they are just 3-4 ATS at home. The Gamec...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-02-2009
The Connecticut Huskies have now become the No. 1 team in the nation. So far this season that hasn't been good news for the teams that have made it there, as each have been knocked off. These team...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-01-2009
The Stags finally broke their three-game losing streak last time out with a needed win over Marist. Two of the losses during the three-game losing run were at home, which is their only two home losses...