College Basketball Free Picks - February 06, 2008

We went 2-3 last night. We hit with our top (4-unit) pick but suffered a 2.3 unit loss. Over the past six weeks we are 134-84 (61%) for +64.8 units. We are 52-19 on this run on our 4 and 5 unit picks and have another 4-unit tonight with seven games total...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Old Dominion at Northeastern (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Northeastern -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

ODU is 8-4 at home but just 3-6 on the road. They have been known for defense this season but right now it's Northeastern who is playing tenacious D. The Huskies have held each of their last two opponents to the 40s on a combined 30-103 shooting effort from the field. Did they play cupcakes? Did they have easy home games? No on both fronts. Northeastern was road underdogs in both games but won both outright convincingly. Now they go home where they are 4-2 on the season. They will have the confidence here to be aggressive again and limit ODU's offensive success. The Monarchs are off a great shooting game in which they hit 55.1% from the field and scored 73 points. However, this team is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a 55%+ performance. Northeastern is 7-0 ATS in home games in February dating back to last season and we like them to win and cover here as well.

The Zips are a solid, balanced team. They are 6-2 in conference and tehy average 73.4 ppg. But, most of those nice stats come from playing at home. Away from home, their scoring average drops nearly 10 ppg and they are just 4-5 SU and 3-5 ATS! Then you have Western Michigan, a team most people don't believe is as good as Akron. But, at home they are 7-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. They average 72.4 per game here compared to Akron's 68.1 on the road. What about defense? Akron gives up 68 per game away from home compared to just 57.2 per game allowed by the Broncos. Western Michigan is 6-0 ATSA the past three seasons at home vs. good defensive teams and 14-5 ATS overall at home over the past two seasons. The oddsmakers make this a pick 'em but we like the Broncos chances at home much more than that.

The red-hot Huskies go to the Carrier Dome with their first national ranking of the season, having rattled off five straight impressive wins. The Cuse has been a bit under the radar of late as well, as they have won three straight and two on the road, and lost to Georgetown on the road by 2 in OT. The Huskies blueprint for success is guards that can dribble penetrate, pull up and knock down the 10-15 footer, or dish to Adrien or Thabeet for an easy dunk as if help arrives. There is one situation that presents itself over and over for the Huskies, and that is against a zone. The zone takes away their strength, as the dribble penetration is taken away and their half-court offense is not good at all. The last team to throw a zone at Connecticut was Providence. The Huskies were down 20 in the 2nd half. They shot 22-60 (36.7%) and they are not a good 3-point shooting team, hitting 4-19. Last year, Providence did the same thing and forced UCONN to beat them from deep, and the result was the same: 26-68 for 38.2% and 8-26 from three. The Huskies beat Syracuse last year at home. They shot just 20-56 35.7% and connected on just 8-23 from deep. They won because a thin Syracuse team was laden with foul trouble, with two players playing with four and two others fouling out. They went to the Dome, and the same old story, UCONN shot 21-65 32.3% and 7-21 from three. They met again in the Big east Tournament, and the same old story. Connecticut shoots 26-75 34.6% and 4-19 from three. The zone lures the Huskies into a game they can't win. The open threes are always there, and it takes UCONN out of what they do best, and into what they do worst. These are five games vs the zone, and UCONN has shot 115-324 35.5%! They have been even worse from deep, connecting on 31-108 or 28.7%! The proof is right there. Uconn has shot 52 three's in their recent six game winning streak, with no game shooting more than 14! The Huskies vs the zones of Providence and Syracuse has them averaging 22.3 attempts from 3 per game. That is more than twice as many as they take when playing their game. The Huskies last four losses have shown them taking 20 three's per loss. Again forcing them to shoot outside, and their chances of winning diminish greatly! The Huskies are 218th nationally in shooting 3's and vs the zone, with this group of players the Huskies would rank near the bottom! Syracuse shoots nearly 50% and will get points. UCONN's defense is a bit misleading, as they allow just 37.7% from the field, but an equal percentage from three. Why? The Huskies block 10 shots per game. That means a team that shoots 23-60 is shooting 23-50 46% when the shot is not blocked! Connecticut has allowed five players this season to score career highs! That isn't a great defensive team, no matter what the numbers say. Syracuse wins going away.

The Sooners play as good as anyone on their home-court, especially at the defensive end, and have a good opportunity to get huge marquis win vs Texas for tournament resume. The Longhorns haven't been nearly the team on the road as they have been at home, dropping three of their last four, with the only win by 2 at Oklahoma State. Texas' 47% shooting hasn't translated on the road, where they have been nowhere near that. The last four shows 34, 41, 43 and 39 percent. One thing Sooners do is play solid defense, and we see the Texas road frustration continue here, as the Sooners get the big win they need for tourney consideration.

Notre Dame looks to defend their first Top 25 ranking this season as they stroll in ranked #22 in the nation. They have won 14 of their last 16 games and three in a row. They are putting up 80 ppg and raining 40% of their long-range shots. Luke Harngody is rolling through defenses, putting up 20.4 ppg and 10 rpg. On paper it appears the Pirates have the offense to keep up with Notre Dame, but their defense is so much worse that they won't. They are giving up 77.3 ppg on the season and 81 per game at home. The Irish are 12-3 ATS the past three seasons on the road after failing to cover the spread. They are also 13-5 ATS the past two seasons after posting 3+ straight wins. Many ding the Irish for their 1-2 road record, but that's just not enough games to make a judgement. We instead look to their body of work and peg them as the much better team here.

The Green Wave are coming together as a team and are now on a five game streak, and 12-3 over their last 15. Keep in mind this team is 3-0 vs the rugged SEC, and took down Tulsa on the road. The Green Wave are allowing just 39% and built similar to UCONN, as they funnel guards into the paint to get shots rejected. The Wave has shot rejection mentality, as they have swatted away 120 already this season, with five players recording double-digit blocks, and they are top 30 defending the three-ball as well. The Miners not the best shooting team in the country, at 43% and 31% from deep, may have trouble putting up points here. The bigger problem for Miners is keeping 6-9 glass eater Victor Ramalho on the floor, as he has fouled out in six contests over the last six weeks. Think the Green Wave could sneak a win here, so we will grab the points.

Air Force is all about low-scoring games as their games average just 118 ppg on the season. San Diego State plays excelleng defense, holding foes to 64 per game. But, they can score too. They are averaging 70.1 ppg on offense. So, with this line, it comes down to how much success the Aztecs can have against the Falcons' defense. We think at home, they will have enough to drive this game OVER. The Aztecs are 22-11 OVER following three straight conference games the past three seasons. Over that span they are also 23-11 OVER following and OVER and 15-4 OVER coming off two straight OVERs. Under Steve Fisher, this team is 44-31 OVER vs. conference foes and 23-12 OVER after scoring 80+ their prior game. With a total this low, there's little room for error in selecting the under. We'll go contrarian and take the OVER here.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View NCAA basketball sports book here.
• Hop over to our NCAA basketball handicapping philosophy here.
• Here we show our ncaa march madness.
• Check out 2007 NCAA basketball handicapping preview here.
• Check out college basketball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View 2007 NCAA basketball season prior picks here.
• Hop over to our ncaa bracket picks here.
• Updated today: college basketball ATS recrds.
• Don't forget to read our blog college basketball picks here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball picks.
• View college basketball prior picks here.
• Here we show our college basketball lines and odds.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-05-2008
The Bulls have lost nine straight yet are somehow expected to keep this one close on the road, where they are 0-10 this season. We aren't buying it. They are off two straight OT losses which does ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-04-2008
The Spartans have now gone 10-2 in their last 12 game and are playing with confidence. Kyle Hines has been a dominating player lately. He has averaged 22 points per game, 10.7 rebounds per game and 2....

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-03-2008
Karl Hobbs has had some very good teams at George Washington, but this isn't one of them. The Colonials are 0-8 on the road and have lost by an average of over 20 points a game. They shoot just 41...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-02-2008
This young Gator team has only ventured out on the road four times all season, and has found out life is different on the road as they have met two losses and a narrow escape in those four games. The ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-February-01-2008
It is tough to back a team favored on the road that has gone 4-27 away from home in their last 31 games, especially when two of those games were by two points. The other two were over teams from lower...