March Madness Brackets - December 30, 2008

Today we have seven plays...

Today's NCAA Basketball Picks:

Game: Massachusetts at Houston (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston -7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

UMass is just 2-4 on the road this season where they have been outscored by 4.5 points per game. They are 1-4 ATS in those games. Houston is 4-1 at home, winning by 25 points per game. They have coverd similar spreads to this in games vs. Western Kentucky (-8.5), North Texas (-10) and Toledo (-7.5). The Cougars have just two ATS losses all season. One was last game in an upset loss to Iowa State. I expect them to take out their frustrations on an overmatched UMass team here as a result. 

This game features two teams that have posted a combined 23-3 record, thanks in large part to their defensive play. But, the offenses in this game are quite good too. Illinois is scoring 71.4 per game (75.2 over their last five) while Purdue puts up 74.2 per game. When these two met at the end of last season, they scored 141 total points. Neither of these teams has seen a total this low when facing a good offense and this one should go OVER.

While Seton Hall scores 84.6 per game at home, they manage just 66.8 per game on the road - that's nearly an 18 points per game difference! They have one main scorer in Jeremy Hazell and he will be the focus of the Orange defense tonight. In recent losses to IUPUI and James Madison, the Pirates managed just 65 and 64 points. I like the Cuse to shut them down enough here that this game comes in UNDER the lofty total.

Clemson, perfect on the season, visits one-loss S. Carolina. The Gamecocks are 8-0 at home so this should be a great game. While it's unclear which of these two excellent teams will win, one thing is for sure - it should be an intense, hard-fought game. Both teams score a lot and play great defense. But the oddsmakers have sided with offense here, posting a very high total. The Tigers are allowing just 61.3 ppg and the Gamecocks are allowing just 61.5 per game (59.4 at home and 54.2 over their last five). That's a lot of defense given a total of in the 150s. I like this game to go UNDER.

Ole Miss and Southern Miss meet on a neutral court in Biloxi. Ole Miss has been an OVER machine this year, especially on the road where their games have averaged 155.2 points per game. In their last four games they have allowed an average of 81 points per game including 103 to New Mexico. Southern Miss has played great defense at home allowing just 54.3 points per game. But on the road, their defense is a sieve, giving up 67.8 per game. Their recent games look good defensively, but they have played weaklings in William Carey, McNeese State, Spring Hill and Weber State. Ole Miss will not go so easily. This one goes OVER.

New Mexico road games are averaging 136.8 points per game. New Mexico State home games average 154 per game. But hang on. Who have the Aggies played at home? UC-Riverside, Pepperdine, Sacramento State, Prairie View A&M and Loyola Marymount? Give me a break! The only solid team they have played at home all season was UTEP. So, their 88 ppg in home games is inflated and I don't see them getting near that tonight. This total is out of whack thanks to that schedule and with Lobos games averaging 15 ppg less than this total, I like the UNDER here.

It doesn't get much worse than Sacramento State. They are 1-11 on the season, averaging just 58 ppg at home. But, their defense is also poor as they have allowed 71 ppg on the season. They have allowed 70+ in eight of twelve games. Pacific has picked up their offense of late putting up an average of 66.3 per game over their last six games. This total is very low and sets a low hurdle. I like this game to go OVER.

Results: 3-4

NCAA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our updated 2008 college basketball betting preivew.
• View our sports betting college basketball here.
• Read our 2008 college basketball prior pick season results here.
• Check out our updated how to bet NCAA basketball.
• View college basketball Game Analysis here.
• Here we show our blog NCAA basketball picks.
• Check out our updated NCAA basketball pick.
• Read our NCAA basketball spreads here.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa march madness brackets here.
• Don't forget to visit our college basketball ATS standings.
• View our ncaa march madness pick here.
• Updated today: NCAA basketball previous picks.

Check out the last five NCAA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-29-2008
Both of these teams are anemic offensively, leading to a low total. But, I like the OVER here thanks to the fact that Fordham can't stop anyone on the road. While scoring just 62.6 per game, they ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-28-2008
Indiana State limps into conference play with a 2-9 record. The Sycamores are averaging just 60 ppg on 40% shooting. The offense has actuall been declining as the season progresses. They must face a t...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-27-2008
The Cougars have had the reputation to slow games down to a screeching halt, but when they have played teams that are athletic and like to get up-and-down, like Gonzaga (74 points against the Cougars)...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-23-2008
Here we have a sub-.500 team that is 1-3 at home on the year, laying double digits. Delaware is the better team in this one, but this line is too large. Marist has a better defense and should be able ...

NCAA-Basketball-Picks-December-22-2008
The Gators have been holding down the bad teams on their schedule as they always play top level defense under Coach Donovan. Their home opponents from non-BCS schools have been limited to 56.8 ppg wit...